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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

snowlover91 said:
As we get into range the 3km NAM and 12km NAM will be key to how this unfolds. I don't trust the RGEM as much since it seems to be too cold at times and globals just don't have the resolution needed to properly handle such a delicate balance between WAA and very marginal thermals.
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Don't forget the HRRR too. It outperformed the NAM with the northeast storm back in December, especially around NYC where the NAM was actually too warm.
 
iGRXY said:
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This is all the way through.
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sdm47 said:
Don't forget the HRRR too. It outperformed the NAM with the northeast storm back in December, especially around NYC where the NAM was actually too warm.
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The HRRR was no bueno in NC for that storm
 
iGRXY said:
View attachment 63040
This is all the way through.
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The guide to using these snow maps in marginal situations like this is to take the axis of the heaviest snow and cut it by half and then drastically reduce amounts as you get away from that area. Pretty much all the gray shown here will end up being mixed with rain or be just a few token flakes either side of the main part of the storm.
 
I found this interesting what she said about the area of low pressure.
 

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Rain Cold said:
The guide to using these snow maps in marginal situations like this is to take the axis of the heaviest snow and cut it by half and then drastically reduce amounts as you get away from that area. Pretty much all the gray shown here will end up being mixed with rain or be just a few token flakes either side of the main part of the storm.
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The way I’ve grown to look at it is everything below the blue will be rain and it’s even likely that the lower zones of the first shades of blue on the ensembles will also most likely be rain. Second blue shade on the ensembles usually is where the r/s line likes to set up.
 
WeatherNC said:
Why would you commit to any specific location at this range? Draw yourself a box, adjust the area each day and refrain from setting up shop till the last minute.
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I would book 2-3 rooms with no cancellation fee in a 50-100 mile triangle
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The way I’ve grown to look at it is everything below the blue will be rain and it’s even likely that the lower zones of the first shades of blue on the ensembles will also most likely be rain. Second blue shade on the ensembles usually is where the r/s line likes to set up.
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I've always kinda went by the rule if you have a 4 inch mean you might actually see snow.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I've always kinda went by the rule if you have a 4 inch mean you might actually see snow.
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Yeah I tend to use ensemble mean snow totals as percentage chance of seeing snow rather than actual snowfall or snow on the ground. Blue shading means you might actually see accumulating snows. Grey means there's a chance, but not great especially the lighter shades of grey.
 
Euro and Nam look very similar on output here..thermal profiles and such. I like that team!
 
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