iGRXY
Member
I don't really care for Sref plumes at all but they're up to 2.5" here which was a big increase from the previous run and is usually telling for the upcoming nam.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!
- Thread starter Ollie Williams
- Start date
-
- Tags
- winter
That looks spot on to me with current guidance. I'm very hesitant to say accumulating snow down to 85. I can see flakes flying there but not accumulating. I would have discounted the long range NAM and figured it would fold by tomorrow. But thats hard to do with the Euro in its camp. So let's see where this goes.
iGRXY
Member
NAM has a negative tilt at 39 and the ULL is south of 12z.
Warmer at H85 tho, don’t know why, kinda gives me 06z vibes but we’ll see
iGRXY
Member
NAM is slightly south still at 48 and is running due east
Don’t know if I like this run.
iGRXY
Member
ULL movement is still due east at 57 in eastern central alabama. Lets see where she goes.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
That’s got TR written all over it!
iGRXY
Member
850s and 925s are better in the upstate at 60.
Yeah Euro had 999mb just off Hatteras, with the cape and lightning maps @Myfrotho704_ posted you can see it was close to bombing out. Licking my chops haha. @tramadoc might be interested in this too
@Shaggy @Downeastnc @WeatherNC the whole downeast crew
One can only hope and dream.
iGRXY
Member
Through 60 the ULL is step for step with the 12z as far as location goes. About 20 - 30 miles south of ATL.
Oh no,
Classic miller A dry slot ?
Classic miller A dry slot ?
iGRXY
Member
I think we are about to have an incoming on the NAM
4th consecutive 12km NAM run with accumulating snowfall in the valleys of East TN. that certainly bodes well for much of NC
What a disaster, that leaves a sour taste, looks like we need the ULL further north to generate precip in the first place ?
iGRXY
Member
It was looking good and then the moisture just decided to say nevermind and disappear. Western Upstate (West of 26) got nailed that run.
iGRXY
Member
The track was perfect. Just south of columbia by about 20 miles. The moisture just literally disappeared
The ULL opened up, which is disastrous
packfan98
Moderator
I don't think our area has been dryslotted for the past three years. It will be interesting to see if it fills in on subsequent runs. I can see this having an area of drizzle to the north with a swath of snow further south where there are better dynamics.
Seen that on a lot of runs today. The trend is in.
iGRXY
Member
That just seems unrealistic to me. The nam was headed for glory and decided in the final hour to say hell no and dry up completely. Precip didn't even make it above I40 at all.
The nam does this in the long range no need to panic .. we always see the Nam fill in as we get closer .. 3km is also going to be interesting to watch the next couple days
Looks like we need a stronger upper level low, and one that remains closed off if we want it to be that far south, deeper the ULL = the colder the air is aloft and the more forcing you get
iGRXY
Member
NAM used to be amp'd in the LR but since they updated it, it has had an issue with drying up beyond 50 hours.
this wrecking ball dive bombs a bit further west into upstate NY instead of Maine and shreds the circulation much sooner than prior runs. I think SD mentioned that as a possible concern yesterday
Fountainguy97
Member
I have to cautiously agree. I have seen plenty of NAM runs look anemic compared to globals. Even the two snows I've had this year the long range nam was anemic.
Doesn't mean this storm WILL come in wetter but atleast this solution falls into the NAMs known biases
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
1000% accurate.
Jessy89
Member
The NAM still pretty for the upstate at least
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
It’s a combination of things that effect this run, 1. it’s that piece of energy in Canada 2. also the upstream shortwave digging a bit more around Colorado which collapses the ridge and has a response by allowing a weaker ULL, this is something I alluded to a few days ago as those little shortwaves have thrown things complete out of balance with systems this winter 
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Precip hasn't been a problem around here for several months. I won't believe it'll dry up until it happens.
Jessy89
Member
It’s not very often you see western upstate looking good. This will change again and again
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Fountainguy97
Member
I do a lot of lurking these days. Just my .02. The EURO and EPS family have consistently been the leaders for this threat. The EURO has consistently shown the general same idea for the last 5 runs now. The 12km NAM has supported that same idea once or twice in the long range.
If I were to hang my hat on a model for this ULL even I'd have to say I'd lean to the EURO for this one. Although we sometimes see the Euro and gfs "meet in the middle" as I like to say. But the new GFS supporting the EURO is further evidence in its favor. And now the OP GFS is also close to the EURO.
No need to panic over a long range NAM run. We have overwhelming evidence of a fairly widespread winter event.
In fact, I think I would rather have the NAM fail us in the long range then go bonkers lol.
If I were to hang my hat on a model for this ULL even I'd have to say I'd lean to the EURO for this one. Although we sometimes see the Euro and gfs "meet in the middle" as I like to say. But the new GFS supporting the EURO is further evidence in its favor. And now the OP GFS is also close to the EURO.
No need to panic over a long range NAM run. We have overwhelming evidence of a fairly widespread winter event.
In fact, I think I would rather have the NAM fail us in the long range then go bonkers lol.
Using the NAM out towards the end of its range is somewhat of a fool’s bargain, anyways. It’s great with temp profiles closer in, though of course.
Would I be noting this if we had gotten a good ‘ole fashioned Happy Hour NAMing? Probably not. ?
Would I be noting this if we had gotten a good ‘ole fashioned Happy Hour NAMing? Probably not. ?
snowlover91
Member
NAM is always best inside 48 hours when you are in range of the 3km NAM and the moving pieces are usually well sampled. ICON is rolling right now.
The GFS is going the same things the NAM is, but i think the NAM is definitely underdoing precipitation still
The differences here is laughable at hour 48, you have a strung out piece of upper level energy bar salt closed off on the NAM at this hour vs a closed off low on the ICON which is better 
iGRXY
Member
925s are quite cold on the ICON over the upstate and temperatures are around 32-34 throughout. Regardless of what snow total maps show, I am willing to take my chances with that
packfan98
Moderator
RGEM is solid
Avalanche
Member
By Wed. I will have to buy the NAM. Until then, lets hope it improves. Not sure I could even counter-argue with the GFS/NAM tag team. I mean, they aren't the Road Warriors or Rock N Roll Express, but they are better than the Bushwackers.
it’s following the NAM 
Still looked good
Still looked good