For a backside deform further NW, you want a icon like solution where it’s still not to unraveled, the NAM just a weaksauce af the whole time 
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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!
- Thread starter Ollie Williams
- Start date
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- Tags
- winter
RAH keeps hopes alive for really everybody in central NC:
Models and their ensembles are in good agreement with the track of
the system for the end of the week, however large differences exist
for the system early next week. Given the aforementioned pattern,
expect dry weather and near normal temperatures for Thursday, then
precipitation Thursday night through Friday night, dry weather for
the weekend, and then additional precipitation on Monday through
early Tuesday. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30s in
the northern Piedmont to the low 40s across southern central NC when
rain begins Thursday night, then as the profile cools a rain/snow
mix is expected across most of the Piedmont, with the best chances
of frozen precipitation north of the I-85 corridor. As the storm
exits the region Friday night, temperatures will lower enough for a
rain/snow mix across most of central NC. Given the profile is so
close to freezing and surface temperatures will likely remain above
freezing, any small accumulations should be limited to elevated
surfaces. There is one possibility for higher snowfall accumulations
where banded snowfall develops or precipitation rates increase. This
could be enough for a few inches of snowfall to accumulate, however
this would be isolated and most areas that do see accumulations
should only have a tenth or two of snow. Liquid precipitation totals
have slightly lowered with the latest forecast, with around one-half
inch expected near the SC border and one-quarter inch near the VA
border.
Models and their ensembles are in good agreement with the track of
the system for the end of the week, however large differences exist
for the system early next week. Given the aforementioned pattern,
expect dry weather and near normal temperatures for Thursday, then
precipitation Thursday night through Friday night, dry weather for
the weekend, and then additional precipitation on Monday through
early Tuesday. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30s in
the northern Piedmont to the low 40s across southern central NC when
rain begins Thursday night, then as the profile cools a rain/snow
mix is expected across most of the Piedmont, with the best chances
of frozen precipitation north of the I-85 corridor. As the storm
exits the region Friday night, temperatures will lower enough for a
rain/snow mix across most of central NC. Given the profile is so
close to freezing and surface temperatures will likely remain above
freezing, any small accumulations should be limited to elevated
surfaces. There is one possibility for higher snowfall accumulations
where banded snowfall develops or precipitation rates increase. This
could be enough for a few inches of snowfall to accumulate, however
this would be isolated and most areas that do see accumulations
should only have a tenth or two of snow. Liquid precipitation totals
have slightly lowered with the latest forecast, with around one-half
inch expected near the SC border and one-quarter inch near the VA
border.
That’s a good ULL track for the E TN/W NC mountains on the ICON, but not for central NC. We need that at least another hundred miles SW, I think.
EDIT: I mean SE!
Last edited:
GSP mentions there could be a narrow strip of sleet/freezing rain
It’s trash for snow on the front but that’s a solid look for backside snow
iGRXY
Member
GFS slightly southwest at 15
iGRXY
Member
It's already closed off by 21 and slightly south still lolol
The icon tried at the last second to get something going along and east of 95. I don't think it's very different from the euro
North
let me get my umbrella ready
Better than the NAM so far 
If you love snow, you’ll hate this run of the GFS
Eww 
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
And of course WRAL posts the chances for snow Friday are increasing.
past 2 days trends on the gfs. precip not as expansive.
iGRXY
Member
Weatherbell doesn't look that bad from 9z on.
One of those setups where it’s going to be ripping fatties a couple hundred feet above your head. Might have to fly my drone up to get in on the action.
Maybe that nice ol deform band trying to get going ? I’ve accepted that front side snow is unlikely 
iGRXY
Member
I spot a difference from tropical tidbits.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
72 hours out and the models start going wonky, back and forth, trading solutions. Seems like this happens almost all the time with winter storm threats here.
horrible sounding for clt. yikes.
Yep, GFS wraps a nice band of snow on the backside 
iGRXY
Member
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Wow, GFS actually ends up looking better here. Have to catch that snow on the flip.side, homey!
IMO, backside snow is gonna be the way to win in this system when you switch N/NWly aloft, I don’t like the frontend stuff
Jessy89
Member
Gfs favorable to NE upstate Nam favorable to NW upstate big differences
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
SouthGarnerSleet
Member
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Just have to look at the run to run consistency now.
Anyone putting stock in 10:1 snow maps is likely to be disappointed, Kuchera is the way to go, ratio driven and does an ok job accounting for changeovers. Gold standard is soundings and partial thickness plotted against p-type nomogram.
Lol 
NCSNOW
Member
Big news station In Greensboro talk radio Ray Stageck calling for up to 4 inches Greensboro Friday. Last time I heard a wx man give a public accum forecast 75 hrs before an event was actually March 1993 and it was more than 4.
Track,Track,Track fellas and ITS Got to stay closed off. Dont sweat the new NAM out past 2 days.
Track,Track,Track fellas and ITS Got to stay closed off. Dont sweat the new NAM out past 2 days.
I'd feel really good if I lived along the NV/VA border rn.
GFS snow totals are crazy. They show what RAH has been discussing; whereas there will probably be bands that setup providing a lucky few with nice accumulations, but others close by very little. Just in Wake County it shows Wake Forest maybe getting 1" but Apex getting 8". This is going to be like summertime thunderstorms --> we will not know who scores until "go time".
GFSV16 has some really nice soundings in that band, pretty insane lift in the DGZ lol, would argue there might be thundersnow with that look it shows given MLLRs around 7C+
Honestly I think everybody in central NC is equal in the chances of >1". You might get luck and get 5" (2.5 after dividing
) and somebody in Roxboro just a dusting.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I like the look of starting out as rain and changing over to snow. That way we don't have to worry about virga