Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

NAMed....View attachment 62724

I hate what this model does to me

 

[Myfrotho704_]

NAM kinda pulls a December 2018 and has a big frontogenically forced band that crashes the column, LR nam but interesting

 

[ForsythSnow]

Oh no the NAM!!!
modernweenie modernweenie modernweenie modernweenie
Out ahead

Deform band (Cherokee county GA):

 

[SD]

That nam run is so much colder than anything else we've seen. These soundings are awesome

 

[Rain Cold]

NAM kinda pulls a December 2018 and has a big frontogenically forced band that crashes the column, LR nam but interesting View attachment 62730View attachment 62731View attachment 62732

We knew it was coming.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

WNC is sitting pretty with the NAM r/s line that far south. Bread and milk time for those guys.

 

[Shaggy]

That nam run is so much colder than anything else we've seen. These soundings are awesome

Being the 84hr nam and an outlier means proceed with caution

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Sleeeeettt was probably coming the next frame, warm 850s were boiling in from the south, but 925s were cooling, I bet we see IP pop up on the NAMs for many areas over the next couple of days

 

[iGRXY]

With those heavy returns in the upstate, it will likely be heavy snow even on the Hr 84 NAM. It’s promising.

 

[Chazwin]

Nam is a thing of beauty. 84hr nam has never been wrong I’ve heard.

I will say this... in both the January 2017 and December 2018, the NAM was picking up on the warm nose very early. A lot of folks, myself included, were certain in the January 2017 storm that it would correct as we came closer to the event and it never did. That’s how I went from 5-8 inches forecasted to 24 hours later having 1/4 inch of ice and 1/2 inch of snow on top.

 

[SD]

NAM kinda pulls a December 2018 and has a big frontogenically forced band that crashes the column, LR nam but interesting View attachment 62730View attachment 62731View attachment 62732

Some interesting things going on there

 

[Stormlover]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Some interesting things going on there

I know it’s the long range NAM but I think it’s on to something with the cooler 925s, but I bet the warm nose becomes a issue gradually over several runs, front/middle part of the storm imo may be sleety

 

[Flotown]

View attachment 62735

wow

 

[Broken024]

Thats it boys. I'm alerting the authorities and buying salt

 

[iGRXY]

I know it’s the long range NAM but I think it’s on to something with the cooler 925s, but I bet the warm nose becomes a issue gradually over several runs, front/middle part of the storm imo may be sleety

Wonder if we get some onset precip that the models aren’t picking up on right now and help cool the 850’s quicker on the front end.

 

[Jessy89]

Nam just joins the gfs icon and euro


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[DixieBlizzard]

7.8 inches in the Shoals. Hello NW Alabama!

 

[SD]

I know it’s the long range NAM but I think it’s on to something with the cooler 925s, but I bet the warm nose becomes a issue gradually over several runs, front/middle part of the storm imo may be sleety

The Euro has been coldest at 925 and the nam backs that idea up. The warm nose wins eventually but I really liked that the nam had veered 850mb wind east just north and along that band it might help at least slow the northward progression along with adding convergence. Seems like our classic event of watching CC on radar and hoping for a miracle but at least the NAM would likely put down an accumulation on the front end

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The Euro has been coldest at 925 and the nam backs that idea up. The warm nose wins eventually but I really liked that the nam had veered 850mb wind east just north and along that band it might help at least slow the northward progression. Seems like our classic event of watching CC on radar and hoping for a miracle but at least the NAM woukd likely put down an accumulation on the front end

yeah I’d watch the nam to see if it keeps that, those front end frontogenic bands can dump, I bet we’d switch over to rain/sleet in the middle then maybe snow on the backside of the storm