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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Myfrotho704_ said:
I know it’s the long range NAM but I think it’s on to something with the cooler 925s, but I bet the warm nose becomes a issue gradually over several runs, front/middle part of the storm imo may be sleety
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Well you would have to think that if anything like the frontogenesis band that the NAM just showed happens, then that would certainly help to have the surface cooled to right around freezing and with those cold 925s, sleet could definitely be at play while the 850s are bit to warm. Also, I wonder if with this setup if we could see some type of in-situational CAD setup with the amount of precip that is falling... obviously something that the NAM would catch on first if there is.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
yeah I’d watch the nam to see if it keeps that, those front end frontogenic bands can dump, I bet we’d switch over to rain/sleet in the middle then maybe snow on the backside of the storm
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I agree with that. I think your area has a better chance to go to IP than here. The sfc temps on the nam were getting dangerously close to freezing in the areas that got heavy precip as well. Gotta watch that trend too for a brief period of zr before warming back above freezing
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
NAM starting to get into rangeView attachment 62419View attachment 62420
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Chazwin said:
Well you would have to think that if anything like the frontogenesis band that the NAM just showed happens, then that would certainly help to have the surface cooled to right around freezing and with those cold 925s, sleet could definitely be at play while the 850s are bit to warm. Also, I wonder if with this setup if we could see some type of in-situational CAD setup with the amount of precip that is falling... obviously something that the NAM would catch on first if there is.
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Yes, the NAM will handle the thermals better than the global models will... no doubt about it. However, we are not quite in the NAM's wheelhouse yet. The trends of the next 24 hours will tell us which way this thing is going.
 
SD said:
I agree with that. I think your area has a better chance to go to IP than here. The sfc temps on the nam were getting dangerously close to freezing in the areas that got heavy precip as well. Gotta watch that trend too for a brief period of zr before warming back above freezing
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Seems like ice always sneaks up on us in these sorts of setups
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Seems like ice always sneaks up on us in these sorts of setups
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Chances are we get a lot of stations at 32/32 and snow then as soon as it flips it's 33/33 rain but just something to watch. I'm not sure there is enough cool/cold dry to drop most places below freezing
 
ICON unsurprisingly further north and now meets with the other models near the middle, not terrible still but man that 18z solution was perfect
 
SD said:
Chances are we get a lot of stations at 32/32 and snow then as soon as it flips it's 33/33 rain but just something to watch. I'm not sure there is enough cool/cold dry to drop most places below freezing
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The 850 low on Nam at hr 84 is in Georgia. Thats the key for folks,need that to stay underneath your back yard,north and west side is where the goods will be. I track the 500 vort, and it would be gravy if we could get these stacked and wound up rolling from ATL to Charleston.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Sleeeeettt was probably coming the next frame, warm 850s were boiling in from the south, but 925s were cooling, I bet we see IP pop up on the NAMs for many areas over the next couple of days View attachment 62733View attachment 62734
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For Charlotte that's definitely a dangerous line to tread. Surface temps are barely above freezing across the area at hour 84 so unless that surface layer is super shallow (it may be per the 925s), even sleet seems precarious IMO with a warm nose.

Speaking of Dec 2018- the other thing about these frontogenetically-forced cooling/bands are that they're very much east/west oriented, and that's also consistent with/encouraged by the high latitude blocking and 50/50 low to the NE. If extrapolated, the NAM's solution may let Raleigh squeak out with a limited changeover as 850mb wind vectors are actually developing a slight northerly component at RDU's latitude, even if CLT mixes. That's dependent on the 850 mb low tracking/transfering to the coast sufficiently far south. I'm very much expecting that low to shift northward over the next day or so, in which case I'd be getting excited if I was in Roxboro (or maybe GSO). But so far models have really been going the opposite direction, which is nice for a change.
 
Looks just like the NAM when it comes to the position as hour 63, I’d also watch that S/W around the NW, those sort of systems have allowed crazy trends in the short term this winter so far 4E483BD6-7BF9-444D-BF1F-EB901C4D14D9.pngADC00B25-A3CA-4F63-993E-074F82DD2116.png
 
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