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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

I’m not trying to say that soil temperatures are never important, but I do think sometimes we put too much weight on them. This pictures is taken from the streey In front of my house on 4/2/2019. We had 2.5 inches of snow accumulate that morning between 9-11am. This is what happened despite the previous 5 days having temperatures in the 60s with a late March and early April sun angle and the lowest the temperature got while the snow was falling was 33 degrees, so the soil temperature when this started was probably at least in the lower 50s. As of this morning soil temperatures in the NC Piedmont were mostly in the lower 40s and most areas will be below freezing the next couple nights. If a deform comes through on Friday like some models have suggested, soil temperatures won’t be an issue if the rates are there.
 

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Chazwin said:
I’m not trying to say that soil temperatures are never important, but I do think sometimes we put too much weight on them. This pictures is taken from the streey In front of my house on 4/2/2019. We had 2.5 inches of snow accumulate that morning between 9-11am. This is what happened despite the previous 5 days having temperatures in the 60s with a late March and early April sun angle and the lowest the temperature got while the snow was falling was 33 degrees, so the soil temperature when this started was probably at least in the lower 50s. As of this morning soil temperatures in the NC Piedmont were mostly in the lower 40s and most areas will be below freezing the next couple nights. If a deform comes through on Friday like some models have suggested, soil temperatures won’t be an issue if the rates are there.
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You had 2.5" accumulate but i bet if soil temps had been lower you would have had 5" !
 
packfan98 said:
Yeah, this is starting to get real. I still want all of the models and ensembles on board before I go crazy. There are still some that completely whiff.
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If this was the GFS and two days ago it would be a different story. But most of the runs have been better and better as we get closer, and the Euro showing this three days out is a big deal.
 
Avalanche said:
As a snowchaser, this thing is not consolidated at all. Highlands has been a good area in every run however.
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Hi, I like to chase snow too, strongly agree there is limited amplification of H5-7 once it turns the corner. It’s a soft tilt at best vs late hard right hook.
 
Chazwin said:
I’m not trying to say that soil temperatures are never important, but I do think sometimes we put too much weight on them. This pictures is taken from the streey In front of my house on 4/2/2019. We had 2.5 inches of snow accumulate that morning between 9-11am. This is what happened despite the previous 5 days having temperatures in the 60s with a late March and early April sun angle and the lowest the temperature got while the snow was falling was 33 degrees, so the soil temperature when this started was probably at least in the lower 50s. As of this morning soil temperatures in the NC Piedmont were mostly in the lower 40s and most areas will be below freezing the next couple nights. If a deform comes through on Friday like some models have suggested, soil temperatures won’t be an issue if the rates are there.
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This is why I said earlier that for areas that will get the heaviest snow, that soil temps are irrelevant. Like seriously out of all the things to be worried about when it comes to this storm, soil temps aren't one of them.
 
Now I’m all nervous about the 18z EPS. I guess I’m all in now. If we can get that solid deform band to produce, it’s much more favorable to getting a more uniform snow map and more folks will get in on the good stuff as the system moves out from west to east. Those hit or miss dynamic driven snow maps are not ideal unless you luck out.
 
packfan98 said:
Now I’m all nervous about the 18z EPS. I guess I’m all in now. If we can get that solid deform band to produce, it’s much more favorable to getting a more uniform snow map and more folks will get in on the good stuff as the system moves out from west to east. Those hit or miss dynamic driven snow maps are not ideal unless you luck out.
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My concern is we find some way to orient the band west to east instead of more north south so the majority of us just watch a 30 mile wide band get pummeled
 
Getting NAMed
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Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
 
packfan98 said:
Looks like a trend today is the low slowing down and really cranking as it slowly moves out. As long as the upper level dynamics are there, there’s some decent BOOM potential from the deform band.
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Me and you can only go down hill from here lol. Euro jackpot under 70 hrs, nearing 1 foot. We are gonna get the "Mack Attack." Couple years ago, There was a storm jackpotting his back yard, double digits all the way to go time and he got warm nosed, hosed big time.
 
I posted that January 2008 storm on the whamby thread as a nostalgia piece but I'm seriously starting to feel like this event will look similar to that totals wise.

Edit: East of the mountains I mean, the mountains should see a good snow.
 
Ollie Williams said:
This map says it's four.
View attachment 63279
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WINTER STORM WARNING
VTEC: WS.W
WMO: WWUS42 KRAH
PIL: WSWRAH		Snow accumulations 3 inches or greater in 12 hours (4 inches or more in 24 hours); Freezing rain accumulations ¼ inch (6 mm) or greater; Sleet accumulations ½ inch (13 mm)or more. Issued when there is at least a 60% forecast confidence of any one of the three criteria being met.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Isn't Warning four inches and Advisory 1 inch?
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It depends on the NWS field office definitions for specific areas. For example GSP issues a WSW for Charlotte metro if 2 inches in 6 hours or a storm total of 3 or more inches is forecasted. Obviously for areas further north and west the criteria is higher
 
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