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Wintry January 8-9 Wintery Weather Potential!

Here's why the I-40 crowd sees less snow on this run. There's no precip.

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Soundings around here is NAMish (other then the weird drying aloft in the dgz) band cools the column at first then warm nose moves in, starting to get the idea that areas start out as snow/sleet then switch over to rain, along and north of I-85, and the further NW you are, the better chance you stay all snow C1227F8F-FA0B-4A37-BF6B-F1F1C71FE7A8.pngBBCFBE29-7AC8-468A-A665-7F8E461228F6.pngBA7913EE-33F6-46CB-8954-14AA03B35E6C.png
 
SD said:
Euro tried to go bombs away at the last second
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I could see a screwjob for someone the the Piedmont, especially if there’s a front end frontogenic band, and then the backside deform, past experiences tell me that happens nearby here/to my southwest
 
SD said:
Me too something to watch over the next few days. Funny the cmc was just gung ho about it then it dropped the idea at 12z
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Maybe we're at the point where the models start doing the back and forth dance and switching solutions with each other.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I could see a screwjob for someone the the Piedmont, especially if there’s a front end frontogenic band, and then the backside deform, past experiences tell me that happens nearby here/to my southwest
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That would be a little annoying after the precip overperformed in basically every event for 3 years (we’re a tidy 5 feet above normal in that time).
 
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The first image is where I see the ULL traveling. Overnight models had it going over the NC/SC border but have dropped further south again during the 12z runs. Still think the models are trying to send the low into the blocking instead of around it like with CAD so I generally think a more southern track is likely. Somewhere from ATL to Blythewood to Florence is the general track I think. 2nd image isn't accumulations or anything like that but where I stand on who likely sees snow flying. The mountains are a sure bet and the escarpment as well. The mountains of SC and northwestern Spartanburg county through the western piedmont (especially west of 77) is pretty likely at this point as well to see snow flying. Along and north of 85 my confidence has grown that we will see snow flying as well but that is more confidence for Greenville east towards Spartanburg and Gaffney. I am most confident about this area to the west of 77. To the east the warm nose has be worried and the lack of precip showing up towards I40. Likely underdone some but does have me worried. South of I85 from Simpsonville towards Enoree towards Union and Rock Hill could see snow fall as well if the ULL tracks more towards the south. I am worried for Charlotte due to the warm nose and the no snow dome of Oconee and Pickens counties have been rearing its ugly head on the models as well. Still won't know for sure about anything until around 12z tomorrow IMO.
 
iGRXY said:
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The first image is where I see the ULL traveling. Overnight models had it going over the NC/SC border but have dropped further south again during the 12z runs. Still think the models are trying to send the low into the blocking instead of around it like with CAD so I generally think a more southern track is likely. Somewhere from ATL to Blythewood to Florence is the general track I think. 2nd image isn't accumulations or anything like that but where I stand on who likely sees snow flying. The mountains are a sure bet and the escarpment as well. The mountains of SC and northwestern Spartanburg county through the western piedmont (especially west of 77) is pretty likely at this point as well to see snow flying. Along and north of 85 my confidence has grown that we will see snow flying as well but that is more confidence for Greenville east towards Spartanburg and Gaffney. I am most confident about this area to the west of 77. To the east the warm nose has be worried and the lack of precip showing up towards I40. Likely underdone some but does have me worried. South of I85 from Simpsonville towards Enoree towards Union and Rock Hill could see snow fall as well if the ULL tracks more towards the south. I am worried for Charlotte due to the warm nose and the no snow dome of Oconee and Pickens counties have been rearing its ugly head on the models as well. Still won't know for sure about anything until around 12z tomorrow IMO.
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That 70% Cut off line looks right along Highway 11, am I wrong?
 
I would also include the mountains of greenville county and Saluda within the 90% range, given the elevation in my opinion.
 
iGRXY said:
Correct, I think from Northern Cherokee County to Chesnee, Fingerville, Likely Inman, to Marietta North are almost sure to see snow at this point. Even if the ULL went right over head.
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Inman may end up where the Rn/Sn line ends up. I've seen this setup in a similar fashion before. Been tracking these winter storms since Andy Wood had those weather blogs on Fox carolina back in the day. Last year with an ULL setup, Clemson and Ne GA cashed in with heavy precip and the coulmn crashing. It did snow up into the northern upstate but never got below 33, and it melted just as quickly as it coated everything.
 
BLKeene said:
Inman may end up where the Rn/Sn line ends up. I've seen this setup in a similar fashion before. Been tracking these winter storms since Andy Wood had those weather blogs on Fox carolina back in the day. Last year with an ULL setup, Clemson and Ne GA cashed in with heavy precip and the coulmn crashing. It did snow up into the northern upstate but never got below 33, and it melted just as quickly as it coated everything.
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Nahh, i think the rain snow line will likely end up just south of Greenville and Spartanburg towards the pacolet river. Areas along and north of 85 are consistently getting into measurable accumulations on these model runs which is telling in my opinion.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I could see a screwjob for someone the the Piedmont, especially if there’s a front end frontogenic band, and then the backside deform, past experiences tell me that happens nearby here/to my southwest
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It'll be me. Except it'll be to your north where the front end band doesn't punch north enough and the backside develops to my east.

Mark it.
 
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