Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Merry Christmas to all and to all a goodnight.
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
Lows for Xmas morn
Guess no one mentioned the icon because it didn't show cold chasing moisture but it's a big severe threat for all of the Carolinas/Ga even back into Al/Ms/Tn
Even just east of the mountains down this way.
CMC has been showing this for a couple runs now.
I really love the fact that the wave digs! Get things this thing to dig and tilt negative, and you really have something on your hands. January 2000:
This is going to be a major system for the Eastern US, love it! going to have a lot to talk about!! Weekend model watching engaged.
Already expecting disappointment down here in the Midlands, but pulling for everyone!
Already expecting disappointment down here in the Midlands, but pulling for everyone!
My apologies kind sir
Sheeesh
Christmas highs. Imagine this with fresh snow the day before
Storm5
Member
whew, thank you!
meh gotta have a little perspective here. Even the "wintry" gfs is a decent severe setup for the eastern Carolinas. If you start pushing west like the ICON suddenly more and more people go from hoping to see a corn flake in the street light to worrying about severe.
RVD
Meteorology Student
I don't think that's the best comparison to this situation, but boy I wish. Hour 144 on the 12z GFS looks like it could cutoff like we want with a bit more of a dig.
I don't think the ridging we have out ahead of this wave is doing us any favors here, and compare that to Jan 2000 where the flow was relatively flat across the SE/Atlantic before the trough dived. The ridge at 850 is particularly concerning for having cold air in place before the arrival of the system, and favors the more inland type of track we saw here. You don't happen to have 850 data of Jan 2000, do you? I suspect it looks... vastly different than this.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
The GFS is probably nipping a little too much eggnog. Anafront snow is really difficult east of the mountains.
As others have suggested, maybe we can get a postfrontal wave with the cold air already in place, but there isn't much support for that right now.
For now, I'll be pleased to have arctic air around for Christmas day.
As others have suggested, maybe we can get a postfrontal wave with the cold air already in place, but there isn't much support for that right now.
For now, I'll be pleased to have arctic air around for Christmas day.
iGRXY
Member
Those in the central and eastern upstate could definitely do well in that setup. Especially if you get a secondary low to form. Another big thing here is the temperature gradient. You have below freezing temps and temps pushing 60 in the midlands that are separated by about 30 miles. That screams severe weather.
I’m sorry but I just can’t see how that GFS solution works to bring snow into the Piedmont of the NC. That run had Charlotte going from 55 at 18z to snow falling at 21z with the cold air coming in from the west over the mountains. The fastest temperature drop and into snow that I can recall in Charlotte metro was February 1999... the temperature went from 50 just before noon with rain and dropped to 32 by 5pm with heavy snow and thunder... that case however saw a strong CAD moving in to initially drop temperatures to the upper 30s to near 40 then an ULL moved over and cooled the column quickly enough to give us a quick 3 inches of snow... after the ULL moved past the temperature actually rose back into the upper 30s
As @Ollie Williams has alluded to, you need the trough to basically go - tilt near us, which allows a sfc low to develop, deepen and slows the precipitation shield down and allows the cold to catch up, although I think the GFS is overdone 
if the temp dropped that fast, I wanna bet a issue would be IP before snow imo 
if the temp dropped that fast, I wanna bet a issue would be IP before snow imo 
ATLwxfan
Member
Successive improvements in each GFS run the past 2 days.
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Storm5
Member
meh 
packfan98
Moderator
Jessy89
Member
Not really buying into the gfs. I think it’s to aggressive. Mountains will see snow most likely but let’s see what euro says. Cold chasing moisture does not work for upstate sc most the time
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Looking at the gfs it really isn't that bad for western NC, upstate SC, eastern TN where there is never a huge push of WAA on the front end then the strong sfc wave and caa do the rest.
Not saying I wouldn't either but ignoring the alternate scenario of a big severe event because it doesn't show snow is crazy
That block is insane 
Storm5
Member
Ummm. I thought we was waiting for the forum to start till Monday.
packfan98
Moderator
I just locked it.
Hey some members now develop that wave near the Carolinas/va, those were lacking before, glad to see more of them 
Gotta hope other models trend toward the gfs.
Jessy89
Member
Maybe a forum for a light wintry mix Sunday morning. I do think there’s a little confidence for that.
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Fire away
Until the Euro says yes, I'm not very excited about this.
Storm5
Member
I’ll take E3 around Christmas and call it a winter
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