looks like a rapid warmup..
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
Thanks guys.. all this time I didn't know I could get Euro 2m temps for free on Pivotal's site.. sweet.
BufordWX
Member
06z GFS is looking better with that anafront for areas to the west.
Also looks a little better for parts of the Carolinas and that clipper behind it looks interesting.
Also looks a little better for parts of the Carolinas and that clipper behind it looks interesting.
Montanasnow30
Member
John1122
Member
All I want for Christmas is the 06z to come true. 2010 redux for me.
BufordWX
Member
These are quite the temperatures for Christmas morning. Too bad it’s still a week away.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
I honestly thought it became impossible to have winter-like weather during Christmas.. this is exciting!
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
The GEFS isn't horrible with the Christmas system.
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BHS1975
Member
Member 17 pops a coastal.
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I remember a number of times in the 90s where it happened. Nothing big but a quick inch or two.
Imagine 2-4” snow on Christmas fail to happen. People would riot
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I think most people especially outside the mtns would just be ticked to death to see flakes fly on Christmas Eve/day
I could see that being a realistic scenario where a low pops offshore along the front. But the anafrontal snow east of the mountains I don't buy. Maybe for western areas sure.Member 17 pops a coastal.
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Storm5
Member
For those that will ask . IF things continue looking the way they do we can star a thread either late Sunday Sunday or Monday , not before . Carry on
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If a storm popped on the tail end of the front, it would be snow for many. But the odds of that are low at this time. Not seeing any real evidence of that kind of a scenario in the operational models so far.
Yeah if it's just cold chasing moisture it's not (normally) going to happen for us east (of the) mountains folks. If we get something (low) that can throw moisture back in, just maybe. We at least have a slim hope.
That is true. I'd say the 6z was close. Just a quick glance at it and it seemed to want to do that. But its one run. Hopefully today can bring some favorable trends.
I noticed that too. Especially in the lower levels.
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Nomanslandva
Member
Yea, I have seen the post frontal wave that brings snow modeled pretty often, esp. GFS, but it almost never seems to happen. But it is 2020...
From SpaceWeather.com -- News and information about meteor showers, solar flares, auroras, and near-Earth asteroids :
"On Dec. 21st, Jupiter and Saturn will be just 0.1 degrees apart, their tightest naked-eye conjunction since March 1226. This is so close that some people may perceive them as a single "Christmas star." Saturn will be as close to Jupiter as some of Jupiter's moons, and the view through a telescope will be fantastic."
It should be clear for many of us for Monday night. Make sure you go outside to see this.
"On Dec. 21st, Jupiter and Saturn will be just 0.1 degrees apart, their tightest naked-eye conjunction since March 1226. This is so close that some people may perceive them as a single "Christmas star." Saturn will be as close to Jupiter as some of Jupiter's moons, and the view through a telescope will be fantastic."
It should be clear for many of us for Monday night. Make sure you go outside to see this.
BHS1975
Member
A potent N/S wave drops in after the front moves through, reinforcing the cold air. This is the culprit that is responsible for snow flurries/showers shown on some model runs. It would be ideal if there was some southern stream energy nearby, but it doesn't look like that will be the case. I don't see anything at H5 that would allow that northern wave to spin up a surface low. But it's worth watching for sure.
The one time that I can remember anafront snow happening east of the mountains without a low popping up off the coast is probably the January 1985 Arctic Front...the front came through the Charlotte area on that Sunday morning and after the temperatures started to drop we had a quick burst of snow that put around an inch or so. Temperatures dropped all day and were in the single digits by 3 or 4pm.
I can only remember a couple of situations (going way back) that had the cold out chase the moisture. But even then, I bet there was some kind of disturbance forming as the front came through. As others have stated above, the mountains slow the cold giving the moisture a winning edge.
Cold rain I promise
Thanks Don
I can smell it at my house it's so close....
Geez this is the best signal in the SE in quite a while 
maybe this is when we start to reverse a 1-2 decades of craptacular 500mb heights
I got a few inches out of one around 2014 I think I never seen the temp drop so quick it was like ten degrees in less than an hour and started pouring snow temp dropped to 22 at 1 PM from a high of the low 40s wrecks everywhere slickest few inches I've ever driven in.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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The clipper behind the big TN storm, is the one to watch for the Carolinas
This is true
Like what I’m seeing 
I disagree .. while yes east of the mountains it’s tough working with an anafront and usually it doesn’t work out for us but that doesn’t mean it won’t ..
Yeah the difference between the GFS/Euro isn’t even night and day at this point, but what the GFS does, is it dives that 2nd N/S behind and it takes on a neutral tilt after a first peice moves thru which in a way sorta “throws back moisture” and develops a low off the NC coast while the euro does this to early and dumps off that N/S energy in the trough to quick to our west and it tilts to our west, resulting in HSLC severe with maybe some flurries on the backside, it’s not even far apart but where these features Happens is huge, while this anafrontal, something like the GFS would work East of the mountains with a wave developing off the coastMeanwhile the 00z Euro makes the case for at least a high shear/low cape conditional severe threat Christmas Eve over central and Eastern NC.
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