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Ostrich December

jjwxman said:
Meanwhile the 00z Euro makes the case for at least a high shear/low cape conditional severe threat Christmas Eve over central and Eastern NC.


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That is the only modeling I’ve seen that puts 2m temps that warm. Most are at least 20° colder if not more.
 
The fact that we have something to watch at or around Christmas is just so awesome. I will enjoy every minute of looking at these beautiful runs even if it doesn’t verify. That would be a fitting way to end this awful year and a 3+ year snow drought.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah the difference between the GFS/Euro isn’t even night and day at this point, but what the GFS does, is it dives that 2nd N/S behind and it takes on a neutral tilt after a first peice moves thru which in a way sorta “throws back moisture” and develops a low off the NC coast while the euro does this to early and dumps off that N/S energy in the trough to quick to our west and it tilts to our west, resulting in HSLC severe with maybe some flurries on the backside, it’s not even far apart but where these features Happens is huge, while this anafrontal, something like the GFS would work East of the mountains with a wave developing off the coast View attachment 58498View attachment 58499
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Good analysis.


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Nick_boynton_ said:
I disagree .. while yes east of the mountains it’s tough working with an anafront and usually it doesn’t work out for us but that doesn’t mean it won’t ..
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Hopefully in this case it works out. Or if we can get a low to pop that would do the job. I've just seen so many cases where it's actually forecasted for rain to turn to something wintery and we end up failing. I'm usually very optimistic but not in these situations.
 
Snow in the southeast in general is becoming an endangered species. Snow on Christmas in the southeast is like walking outside and seeing dinosaurs playing hopscotch in your front yard. Based on the H5 look on the GFS and Euro with the trends (especially on the GFS) I may just be able to go outside on christmas day and see those said dinosaurs running around in my front yard. And if we can pop a coastal down by SAV, which is a possibility, Hell I'll run around with the damn dinosaurs in the snow.
 
I don’t know why I’m so bullish on next week but I am. With the intense degree of cold coming in it wouldn’t take much energy to pump out something wintery at high ratios. I also don’t think our long range models handle clippers well. Somebody fixin’ to get NAM’d.


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Shawn said:
disclaimer: model chasing will drive you insane. abort, before it's too late. -- cold chasing moisture never works on this side of the mountains. :(
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True. But clippers have potential to drop a couple inches of snow
 
Shawn said:
disclaimer: model chasing will drive you insane. abort, before it's too late. -- cold chasing moisture never works on this side of the mountains. :(
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True, maybe for SC, but don’t rule out the classic setup for Roxboro. I’m hoping we can trend away from the Anafront look and can get a costal low before I tell myself we have a legitimate chance.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Geez this is the best signal in the SE in quite a while View attachment 58491View attachment 58492View attachment 58493
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While I'm going to appreciate the cold coming next week, to me there doesn't seem like there's any strong signal for a winter storm east of the mountains. The ensembles show a storm signal for the mountains and west IMO. I'm patiently looking forward to trying to understand what pattern we're going to have in January. Hoping the pacific looks better than it does this morning.

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Sunday morning NE Georgia upstate sc western NC I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see wet snow before going over to rain. That departing high might hang on long enough to give people some early morning snow flakes. Something to watch but the GFS sorta has it


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The NAM sounding for the Triad for early Sunday has a very pronounced warm nose.

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Poimen said:
The NAM sounding for the Triad for early Sunday has a very pronounced warm nose.

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Interestingly the 3K NAM does not have that stout warm nose.... in fact, with this sounding I might even squeeze out a couple of IPs at the onset

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