Ostrich December

[Ollie Williams]

Historically, in -NAO/-AO/+EPOs, the +EPO backs off some and the AK vortex retrogrades towards the Aleutians, opening up the door for +PNA

I played around w/ a few composites, I think this is as close as I can get at a monthly scale for the hemispheric scale pattern in a -AO/-NAO/+EPO during Dec.

I even used an older, cooler base period to try and bias the temperature composite warmer but it's still arguably vodka cold.

View attachment 56498




View attachment 56499

I made a 500mb composite of all the +NAO, +EPO, -WPO winter storms we've seen in December.

Spoiler: Dates

'1950-12-28 00z', '1969-12-25 00z', '1969-12-26 00z', '1970-12-29 00z', '1970-12-30 00z', '1970-12-31 00z', '1975-12-25 00z', '1981-12-25 00z', '1988-12-12 00z', '2003-12-04 00z', '2003-12-05 00z', '2003-12-14 00z', '2009-12-18 00z', '2018-12-09 00z'

 

[Metwannabe]

ok @Tarheel1 just for you..... enjoy and share pics, preferably upright lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

CMC has been consistent with this monster system, hopefully we can trend colder because goodness ?

 

[Chazwin]

Hmmm... maybe something else to watch further down the road, too.
View attachment 56497

I’ve really been interested in the 17-21st time period for about the last week. Indicies look good during that period and the GFS and GEFS have both on and off had something come up.

 

[Webberweather53]

I made a 500mb composite of all the +NAO, +EPO, -WPO winter storms we've seen in December.
View attachment 56517

Spoiler: Dates

'1950-12-28 00z', '1969-12-25 00z', '1969-12-26 00z', '1970-12-29 00z', '1970-12-30 00z', '1970-12-31 00z', '1975-12-25 00z', '1981-12-25 00z', '1988-12-12 00z', '2003-12-04 00z', '2003-12-05 00z', '2003-12-14 00z', '2009-12-18 00z', '2018-12-09 00z'

Nice work! That's a pretty stout Miller B/CAD look there but no guarantee of course. Most of the real big events in that cluster of dates plastered climatologically favored areas of far NW piedmont & mountains and left areas further SE shafted. (Dec 25-26 1969, Dec 25 1981, Dec 18-19 2009)

 

[BufordWX]

CMC coming in hawt with system 2

 

[Webberweather53]

CMC coming in hawt with system 2View attachment 56520View attachment 56521

@BirdManDoomW special

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Whew

 

[BufordWX]

CMC coming in hawt with system 2View attachment 56520View attachment 56521

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Oh Canada!!! A 1-2 punch. Brb, got a tent to fix.

 

[SD]

Whew View attachment 56523

Onset ice

 

[ATLwxfan]

Oh Canada!!! A 1-2 punch. Brb, got a tent to fix.

This is a family show. You better be camping.


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[BirdManDoomW]

CAD event, lot of rain and ice north. Meh

 

[Webberweather53]

Nice work! That's a pretty stout Miller B/CAD look there but no guarantee of course. Most of the real big events in that cluster of dates plastered climatologically favored areas of far NW piedmont & mountains and left areas further SE shafted. (Dec 25-26 1969, Dec 25 1981, Dec 18-19 2009)

The 12z CMC run is ironically a lot like these 3 aforementioned events.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Get the wave on the CMC further off the coast by weakening the Atlantic ridge, and... ?

 

[RVD]

CMC has been consistent with this monster system, hopefully we can trend colder because goodness ?View attachment 56519

Actually though-

 

[whatalife]

Next week is starting to look real interesting. Whether it produces winter weather for the SE is another story.


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[BirdManDoomW]

I need Atlanta Georgia to Columbia South Carolina to be cold enough if I want severe icing in Wilkes. Not happening with that look. But could trend who knows

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Whew View attachment 56523

If that parent low transfers off the coast of Savannah and not Myrtle beach then this is a much bigger run imo

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yeah it’s really looking better each run, it’s about time we’re popping out runs like this