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Ostrich December

Myfrotho704_ said:
As @Ollie Williams has alluded to, you need the trough to basically go - tilt near us, which allows a sfc low to develop, deepen and slows the precipitation shield down and allows the cold to catch up, although I think the GFS is overdone View attachment 58525View attachment 58526if the temp dropped that fast, I wanna bet a issue would be IP before snow imo View attachment 58527
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You know the only time that I’ve ever seen Charlotte metro switch from rain to snow with a surface low in that general location was the 1993 Superstorm. Obviously that particular example was a fully stacked low that at that point had pressures as low as a major hurricane, but that shows you the dynamics that would have to exist to make it work.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That block is insane View attachment 58534
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This is one of the better long range operational GFS evolutions. Like the 00z (and unlike the 06z), the -NAO block that gets pumped up from our Christmas day storm is well-oriented and sticks around. Meanwhile, the big east coast trough evolves into the low trapped over eastern Canada. The Pacific is a mess, but we'll see if we can pull something off and maybe get a transient west coast ridge or something.
 
I get excited when I go an hour at work and my pants are vibrating like crazy. I check my notifications from the board and I have 77. Something good must have happened


Please!!! I know everyone treats starting a thread like crack cocaine around here. Let’s wait to the last minute. It gets crazy with alerts from so many threads.


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12z GEFS members:
GEFSSE_prec_snens_192.png
 
SD said:
I'm not entirely opposed but let's at least get through the 12z euro. If it looks like crap the gfs is on a bit of an island
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The type of setup to, even on the GFS, doesn’t have much wiggle room between a severe weather event, or snow from a secondary wave, it’s cushion is basically a road, could easily cave next run, unfortunately
 
Broken024 said:
Not a bad average... skewed I'm sure
View attachment 58543
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Not a bad average for my neck of the woods and I counted 10 members with some type of measurable snowfall accum as well. Interesting for 7 days out, but the GEFS has screwed me hard before so I of course take it with a grain of salt. Skeptical of the setup, but it does look to be a strong arctic front so who knows....
 
metwannabe said:
I hate anafront potential too and I see other's commenting just like I, but this particular setup isn't typical anafront precip right? It looks more backside deepening low snow really
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Yep, secondary low develops from the negatively tilted trough, rates would be heavy from that sort of stuff, the problem is, you literally gotta have perfect timing and a perfect H5 look, it could easily go to crap
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The type of setup to, even on the GFS, doesn’t have much wiggle room between a severe weather event, or snow from a secondary wave, it’s cushion is basically a road, could easily cave next run, unfortunately
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thats what makes it fun right, we could easily delay the negative tilt of the trough and see coastal. Should be fun to follow but the trend of the CMC and Icon so far weren't great and with a meh to non existent -NAO up stream I would favor this slowly leaking NW versus SE.
 
For the folks in the Carolinas, this is a great trend in the past 24 hours as seen below. Since then it has showed signs of a secondary low forming. The low should form off the coast. This is exactly where you want this to be at eight days from now.

It would be more beneficial if the transition would happen sooner around southern Georgia, but at this point great potential. I’m not sure on the latest speed of the air but the transition will slow the qpf field allowing colder air to settle in.

At what point do we rename our Baja Wave to Cali.. Honestly, I wish that would speed up to Arizona by Christmas.

As [mention]Myfrotho704_ [/mention] mention it’s on
the verge from a severe outbreak to a heavy snow potential.

34d3f9904cb9b2f533be466135f54d31.gif




f6da2f66e8678ca1a18c86b0d495e2fd.gif



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wxdaniel said:
For the folks in the Carolinas, this is a great trend in the past 24 hours as seen below. Since then it has showed signs of a secondary low forming. The low should form off the coast. This is exactly where you want this to be at eight days from now.

It would be more beneficial if the transition would happen sooner around southern Georgia, but at this point great potential. I’m not sure on the latest speed of the air but the transition will slow the qpf field allowing colder air to settle in.

At what point do we rename our Baja Wave to Cali.. Honestly, I wish that would speed up to Arizona by Christmas.

As [mention]Myfrotho704_ [/mention] mention it’s on
the verge from a severe outbreak to a heavy snow potential.

34d3f9904cb9b2f533be466135f54d31.gif




f6da2f66e8678ca1a18c86b0d495e2fd.gif



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Shouldn't you say "Western Carolinas"? Central NC and East always sweats coastals.That warm nose usually ruins the party for my neck of the woods. The Carolina Crusher was an exception, but even with that, places 30 - 40 miles NW of me got a foot more snow than I did.
 
We’ve got changes on the models 72 hrs out. This one is 7 days. By Monday the Euro could have a foot of snow for Christmas and the GFS could have the scene from the day after tomorrow with tornadoes everywhere from severe weather. I will say for this to work you have to get the low to form down by Savannah or the Ga/FL border. That’ll slow the precip down and start forming that comma shaped snow on the back end that can drop several inches of snow in about a 6-8 hr time span. If that doesn’t happen then the upstate and those directly east of the mountains could get some very very back end snow showers as the precip exits. Those that live east of 77 really need it to slow down so that they do not warm into the 50’s ahead of the front. The upstate gets to the mid 40’s but quickly drops the temp as the front is sliding in during the morning hours and that’s much easier to work with to get snow.
 
mrdaddyman said:
Shouldn't you say "Western Carolinas"? Central NC and East always sweats coastals.That warm nose usually ruins the party for my neck of the woods. The Carolina Crusher was an exception, but even with that, places 30 - 40 miles NW of me got a foot more snow than I did.
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Daddy

It’s to soon to nail down specifics yet. Still it’s anyone’s or any models guess right now but we do have the ingredients.




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Poimen said:
The GFS is probably nipping a little too much eggnog. Anafront snow is really difficult east of the mountains.

As others have suggested, maybe we can get a postfrontal wave with the cold air already in place, but there isn't much support for that right now.

For now, I'll be pleased to have arctic air around for Christmas day.
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Give me the Cold air, I've got a hose and will make my own snow for the kids.

You're welcome to walk over too!
 
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Strictly speaking as of today from the GFS and its ensembles right now I think if you live in that first blue line (along and west the App Mountains/ North and west of 85 through Georgia and Alabama) you really got to like your chances to see some snow. Those frontal passages always work out well for those in Tennessee. It's once you get into the next 2 colors, any type of frontal passage of cold chasing moisture or clipper system do things generally don't work out. If you're directly east of the mountains and west of I77 I would really want to pay attention here. If we can get that LP to pop on the coast, then you would see a very heavy snow for 4-8 hours. The front passes through in the morning and the LP would help slow the moisture even more and allow for more CAA to drive into the region.Those in the purple color need a few more tweaks here. The first being you really want the front to speed up and not allow warm air out ahead of it to begin building in with mid morning and lunch time temperatures. Also if a coastal does form you don't want it pushing itself onto land and rather ride just offshore to avoid WAA. Now a lot is going to change here but those in northern Alabama, Northwestern and North Central Georgia, All of Tennessee, and WNC look really good as of today to potentially get some of the white stuff and I'm not talking about crack either.
 
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