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Ostrich December

Myfrotho704_ said:
Well that’s true it has since I haven’t seen grass completely under snow in 2 years, but it is a mean, GEFS is certainly much better but at least the EPS isn’t a shutout
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I know I'm just giving u hell I like ur style. I always enjoy the pbp because I'm never near my computer.
 
Still like what I see in regards to that +EAMT, can see hints of the NPAC jet extension associated with below normal heights in the Bering sea which allows a strat attack the on SPV, and also could be the cause to a very +PNA towards late December/early January, keep the -NAO in the equation (I don’t know why it keeps coming back) and it keeps the pattern interesting 47A0D5CB-1891-4F56-BFFE-70F27F667ED4.png47ED18BE-7047-4C52-BF62-21C506C6528C.pngF0AC9197-C163-4593-BCC1-40ABB237DAA3.png957A56A4-A5B4-4634-8C37-BEC2C65FAFE2.png
 
Somebody smarter than me can find the maps but we had a system come through in early December 2000 that went from tornadoes to snow. It was before our bigger snow but it blew through at night and we woke with a good coating and temps holding in the upper teens. A few days later we got the 3.5” but that laid the groundwork. Maybe this will be similar.
 
So seeing the 12z Euro actually take a step towards the GFS does remind me a little of how the model trend began with the 2010 Christmas storm. In that one, the GFS was actually showing in the 7-9 time frame and then lost it, but the Euro latched onto it at 6 days out and eventually the GFS trended back to it as the week progressed. Now this means absolutely nothing with this potential now, but we have definitely seen the Euro 7-8 days out not be what it used to be. Two things look very possible right now...first there looks to be a storm of some type with a lot of energy as we get close to Christmas whether it be a snowstorm or a severe weather outbreak, and secondly the pattern after that storm looks really good especially considering the climo we are going into.
 
Here's what FFC says about the Christmas Eve system.
Rain should be ongoing at the start of the period...with some
lingering rain/snow mix at higher elevations around sunrise
Sunday. Models differ on the low pressure moving along the Gulf
coast on Monday...with the ECMWF showing a slower progression and
some pops possible across east central GA on Monday.
Otherwise...dry until the next trough deepens into the central
states mid week. A surface front should cross the state Wednesday
and Thursday. Have raised the pops a bit for that time...keeping
them in high chance category. Models show this as a progressive
system so the main precip looks like it would clear the area by
Friday. However...with such a deep trough...some wrap around or a
weak short wave could affect north GA Thursday night into early
Friday. Have confined pops to the far north at this time.
Temperatures indicate that this would be an all snow event. Will
continue to monitor this system in the coming days.
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RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
At least the MJO is weak and staying in the circle. It's doing everything it can to no emerge in the favorable phases though I see.
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In all honesty I’m fine with the MJO staying in the circle if it’s not going to emerge into good phases. I remember a couple of years ago when all of the indexes looked good, but the MJO was so strong and in the wrong phases it was controlling everything about our pattern and kept flooding the US with Pacific air
 
Chazwin said:
In all honesty I’m fine with the MJO staying in the circle if it’s not going to emerge into good phases. I remember a couple of years ago when all of the indexes looked good, but the MJO was so strong and in the wrong phases it was controlling everything about our pattern and kept flooding the US with Pacific air
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Yep in the circle is fine. @GaWx has talked about it in the past. Night and day difference from the past few years.
 
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from RAH:
A brief warming trend is then expected midweek ahead of a deep
trough forecast to develop over the central US. This potentially
full-latitude trough should bring a stout, precip laden cold front
Christmas Eve, though timing is still uncertain. With temps in this
pattern likely to crash rapidly behind the front, there will be
interest in the potential for snow on Christmas Day. However,
looking at current forecasts, there would need to be more
significant and southward deepening of the upper low to induce a
surface low at our latitude to produce more anafrontal precip.
Instead the cold air is more likely to be chasing the precip on the
tail end of the event. In any event, Christmas Eve looks to be
unusually mild, and Christmas day may be bitterly cold.
 
tramadoc said:
[mention]Myfrotho704_ [/mention]Do you have maps for the 23-25 time frame that show CAPE?
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Euro was honestly really close to some bad stuff, wow, and EPS is more bullish on severe vs the GFS/GEFS, which is concerning give the the GFS/GEFS have a progressive bias
 

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Say Wut? Christmas Miracle?

Saturday Night
Mostly Cloudy. A Chance Of Snow Showers After
Midnight. Lows Around 30. Light And Variable Winds. Chance Of
Snow 30 Percent.

Sunday
Mostly Cloudy In The Morning, Then Becoming Partly
Sunny. A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Morning. A Chance Of Rain
Showers. Little Or No Snow Accumulation. Highs In The Upper 40s.
Light And Variable Winds. Chance Of Precipitation 30 Percent.

Sunday Night
Mostly Cloudy With A Chance Of Rain Showers. A
Slight Chance Of Snow Showers After Midnight. Little Or No Snow
Accumulation. Lows In The Lower 30s. Light And Variable Winds.
Chance Of Precipitation 30 Percent.

A chance is all you can ask for a week out!

Thursday Night
Mostly Cloudy. Rain Showers Likely In The
Evening, Then A Chance Of Snow Showers After Midnight. Cooler
With Lows In The Mid 20s. Chance Of Precipitation 60 Percent.

Christmas Day
Mostly Sunny. A Chance Of Snow Showers In The
Morning, Then A Chance Of Rain Showers In The Afternoon. Cooler
With Highs In The Upper 30s. Chance Of Precipitation 30 Percent.

Merry Christmas!
 
Couple of interesting things from the Euro. Watch features 1 and 2 over the next few days, if you are looking for secondary wave development along the front or "embedded" as someone called it (sarcasm) tilting the trough axis negative with #2 can help you get there. If you want to try to slow the arctic front and fire a second low #1 can help you get there. Additionally a farther west and slightly stronger #1 would enhance the chance of widespread flurries/convective snow showers on Christmas day
1608328749163.png
 
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SD said:
Couple of interesting things from the Euro. Watch features 1 and 2 over the next few days, if you are looking for secondary wave development along the front or "embedded" as someone called it (sarcasm) tilting the trough axis negative with #2 can help you get there. If you want to try to slow the arctic front and fire a second low #1 can help you get there. Additionally a farther west and slightly stronger #1 would enhance the chance of widespread flurries/convective snow showers on Christmas day
View attachment 58609
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So we’ve got options. Jimmy like
 
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