Wave #1 is worse for just about everyone but NC. However, there are a couple of big dogs.
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
Holy crap.Wonder if we're ever gonna see mid January 1940 levels of -AO ever again (of course that came during a SSWE).
MSLP-based AO index nearly cracked 7 standard deviations below normal on January 16, 1940
Here's the z500 & surface temp anomalies from 20CRv3.
All hell broke loose about a week-10 days after this insane -AO w/ widespread sub-zero and single digit temps across the SE US following that epic storm on Jan 23-24 1940 (which screwed over RDU of course lol)
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I do wonder if we will get a Jan SSW this year and with the pv already in a disturbed state....
You eps guys got any of them 10/30/50mb maps
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
whatalife
Moderator
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
iGRXY
Member
That is some COLD air heading directly to the Eastern US.
RVD
Meteorology Student
Compared to what we had earlier this week, this setup for the 14-15th is a lot simpler: just one wave that we're trying to get to amplify/sharpen/tilt, vs. that multiple N/S mess we were trying to sort out. From that perspective, a typical NW trend is probably a more solid bet... and a little bit of one would help bring more moisture than what the operational models are showing. But I'm not confident about our cold air source here, and we could easily burn through that. That EPS mean makes me uneasy: we're getting a <1" snow mean on >0.5" precip?
Then again, that sounding you posted earlier actually looked pretty decent and workable if we got some heavier rates. Just a fine balance I guess, like always.
When was the last time we had a near -4 sigma AO 
FWIW the EPS Control run has a small storm around day nine.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Oh wow. We are truly in for it in the long haul if we can stick the landing on this AAM configuration, favors equatorward mid-latitude jet streams & high-latitude blocking for up to several weeks
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Things are starting to look interesting a week from now headed towards Christmas.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It's about time we get the colder end. Bring it!!!
??
Keep me unbanned and I’m bringing multi-winter storms. Watch out. Ban me and watch how quickly I turn things to cold rain.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'll do anything to get phase 8 near Christmas. Insane to think we were staring at what should have been a Indian Ocean-Maritime Continent event even just a couple days ago. At least now we're going to have interference
