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Ostrich December

RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
For some reason I can't attach a pic after my phone updated last night. Probably just operator error. Lol
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Sometimes you have to crop the picture a little smaller then post it in here .. for some reason this site doesn’t allow pics of a certain size and it is quite annoying to deal with (cough cough moderator please help if u can on that)
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Gfs took a major set back. Cold air chasing moisture will never work out.

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It is popping a surface low still that is actually 5 mb stronger from last run.. Its going to change another 28 times before Christmas day..
 
Looks pretty spot on of course oconee and pickens county sc misses out lol


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Too bad it's a mess out west, because our big trough is still hanging around in a great confluence position for days thanks to the huge block. Raise heights on the west coast, get one of these northern stream pieces over Idaho or the Dakotas to sharpen up and meet the southern stream wave near Texas (our Baja low finally making its way over lol), and I think we'd like the result. This is more interesting to me for those of us east of the mountains than trying to squeeze out something from an anafront or a secondary low tracking due north inland.
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RVD said:
Too bad it's a mess out west, because our big trough is still hanging around in a great confluence position for days thanks to the huge block. Raise heights on the west coast, get one of these northern stream pieces over Idaho or the Dakotas to sharpen up and meet the southern stream wave near Texas (our Baja low finally making its way over lol), and I think we'd like the result. This is more interesting to me for those of us east of the mountains than trying to squeeze out something from an anafront or a secondary low tracking due north inland.
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Yeah, I'm intrigued considering modeling seems to have a bias towards too little ridging in the Pacific.
 
RVD said:
Really? I've never caught that before. Sounds like a good deal to me, lol.
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Yeah along those lines I like this look, it’s getting hinted at on the ensembles and with the blocking likely persisting I think we are going to see some flavorful looks around this time frame. Better for overrunning or a good Miller A.
 
It’s far and few, but a few more members came out with a idea of dumping a wave towards Texas, then advancing the northern stream ahead of that, and sorta allowing some overrunning as it gets picked back up by a second N/S wave and allows some SE snow for SC/NC/GA, give me that anyday over a anafront, unfortunately it’s just a few members
 
Ummm...
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CyclonicFury said:
The above-normal December streak for the Southeast US is in serious jeopardy.
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Dec 1-18 analysis + 7-day GFS forecast still puts us above average in the Carolinas. GSO, RDU, & FAY are about -0.5F below average for the month right now & the next 7 days will likely push us back to above normal

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Webberweather53 said:
Willing to bet as usual the GFS is too suppressed/SE w/ our sfc low track on Xmas Eve, if so, we are much more likely to see severe weather &/or tornadoes than snow esp around here in the Carolinas.

If we manage to find enough instability, this is a nasty look for tornadoes.

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Area-averaged sounding over SC on the 12z CMC

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Webberweather53 said:
Willing to bet as usual the GFS is too suppressed/SE w/ our sfc low track on Xmas Eve, if so, we are much more likely to see severe weather &/or tornadoes than snow esp around here in the Carolinas.

If we manage to find enough instability, this is a nasty look for tornadoes.

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Yeah, I think severe is probably the more interesting thing to look at esp. for eastern NC and SC on Christmas Eve (as you've shown here). And then a strong cold front and frigid temps on the 25-26th. GFS has me at 26 F on 18z both those days.
 
If the GFS is too SE, though, then that probably means the cold air will take a bit longer to arrive? So I wouldn't be surprised if those temps may be a few degrees too cold on Christmas. Still a good shot at getting sub-freezing highs, with no snow on the ground to boot.
 
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