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Ostrich December

Not to sound like an ass, but why are we making call maps for a storm that is 7 days out? Come on guys, you all know better than that. Do you forget how badly last week's storm was modeled? Let's follow the trends, but stop with the call maps. It will lead to disappointment most of the time. Definitely posts your thoughts and ask questions.
 
ryan1234 said:
Not to sound like an ass, but why are we making call maps for a storm that is 7 days out? Come on guys, you all know better than that. Do you forget how badly last week's storm was modeled? Let's follow the trends, but stop with the call maps. It will lead to disappointment most of the time. Definitely posts your thoughts and ask questions.
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Reason we do it is for release our inner weather weenie.
 
ryan1234 said:
Not to sound like an ass, but why are we making call maps for a storm that is 7 days out? Come on guys, you all know better than that. Do you forget how badly last week's storm was modeled? Let's follow the trends, but stop with the call maps. It will lead to disappointment most of the time. Definitely posts your thoughts and ask questions.
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Boo this man
 
DarkKnight said:
Reason we do it is for release our inner weather weenie.
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I understand that, but normally we start those 2-3 days before the storm. We have so many different model suits to get through before Friday and there are soooo many moving parts. At least wait until we start a new thread pertaining to this system.
 
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I actually agree with Brad on this-

He’s right and that why I made my earlier point.


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ryan1234 said:
Not to sound like an ass, but why are we making call maps for a storm that is 7 days out? Come on guys, you all know better than that. Do you forget how badly last week's storm was modeled? Let's follow the trends, but stop with the call maps. It will lead to disappointment most of the time. Definitely posts your thoughts and ask questions.
Click to expand...
A call map is an accumulation map. That's a "If you live west of the apps you look real good. If you live east of the apps, your prayers are looking like they could get answered but you need to up it more."
 
I’m really surprised at this. We took a huge step in the right direction on the euro. Even our Baja Wave looks good after Christmas to bring the goods. I’m honestly, may lose sleep tonight waiting on the 0z.

I’m very optimistic. I really don’t care what day we get the storm(s). As long as we get it.

Now, I’m just waiting on [mention]Ollie Williams [/mention] to bring me down out of the clouds on Baja.


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Discussion from GSP
In my opinion bullish for them 7 days out.

Toward the end of the period, interest certainly piques as all
global models are depicting a deep upper trough digging out of
Canada into the Plains mid-week, pushing east toward the
Appalachians on Christmas Eve. For this far out, consensus in the
anomalously amplified and cold synoptic pattern is pretty strong,
and though the GFS is a bit faster with the potent front, timing
differences are remarkably low. Give or take a few hours, the front
looks to be pushing into the Appalachians sometime early on
Christmas Eve, with deep moisture fetch off the Gulf bringing
potentially efficient rainfall to the region, especially in the SW
mountains. This deep moisture pushes east fairly quickly, though
lapse rates and attendant moisture under the upper low with the
secondary shot of vorticity may be enough for some lingering precip
on Christmas morning. As mentioned above, this system is anomalously
cold, with most of the 12z guidance coming in not bringing even the
Piedmont out of the 30s on Christmas Day. The official forecast is
warmer than that, relying heavily on blends, but wouldn`t be a bit
surprised to see forecasts trending colder in the next few days. As
for the moisture, new operational runs are drier for Christmas day,
but again leaned toward the blend and so do have low-end pops into
the end of the forecast. Conditionally speaking, if precip occurs,
with the very cold temperatures, it`ll either be rain or snow, so
technically the official forecast will carry slight chance snow
showers early Christmas morning with rapid drying after daybreak.
But residents across the Piedmont of the western Carolinas and
northeast Georgia are cautioned not to get excited as this is still
7 days out and we`re only talking 20% pops or less. In the
mountains, however, this is a slightly different story, where even
WPC`s winter outlook does have low-end chances of accumulations.
 
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