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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Loganelliott99 said:
In the heart of January with that low track it should be a freaking winter storm! But like @DarkKnight said it's a good look for 8-9 days out
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Mind boggling. Low placement is great. Well on the bright the northwest trend won’t sting quite as bad.


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Jessy89 said:
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That’s a good look.


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Textbook low placement. Marginal temps as expected.
 
Stormdoc said:
View attachment 61866
Hopefully this a positive sign. This is the first time I’ve seen the GFS show legit arctic air mass in the long term in weeks it seems
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Of course when we get a legit arctic dump, we know where this is headed.... that NPAC/-EPO block = -PNA = southeast ridge 55F1E4CC-4C9E-48BD-AA2F-3E27C3EA3A59.png658BAE5F-3185-43D8-9AE2-4A3453E0991C.jpeg
 
SD said:
Seems like the end of every gfs run recently has been retrograde to a SER
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Even though I said it’s unlikely above, honestly it wouldn’t shock me if we got a -EPO driven cold outbreak after the marginal -NAO stuff then a Southeast ridge, I was thinking at one point we’d keep the Blocking but per HM, if we switch to maritime forcing, and get that NPAC jet extension/dump out west, down goes February, I think this time is has more legs because the GEFS sorta hints at -EPO which is all or nothing
And oh yeah ninas in feb normally suck
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Someone, I think it was @Ollie Williams had a composite of winterstorms and MJO phases. All phases looked similar to me for producing winterstorms, especially in Feb. except phase 1. Which I had always thought was a good phase. I do believe the MJO can affect the overall pattern whether it's a torch or not. But undividual winterstorms not so much. The more I learn each year the more I'm convinced it really doesn't matter the indexes or pattern. It just takes luck around here. The advertised pattern coming surely helps odds but still need luck.
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It was @Webberweather53, but you're right, phase 1 is our worst for snow.
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Even though I said it’s unlikely above, honestly it wouldn’t shock me if we got a -EPO driven cold outbreak after the marginal -NAO stuff then a Southeast ridge, I was thinking at one point we’d keep the Blocking but per HM, if we switch to maritime forcing, and get that NPAC jet extension/dump out west, down goes February, I think this time is has more legs because the GEFS sorta hints at -EPO which is all or nothing
And oh yeah ninas in feb normally suck
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Ninas in Feb usually suck but this Nina isn't exactly behaving like a typical Nina is it ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Even though I said it’s unlikely above, honestly it wouldn’t shock me if we got a -EPO driven cold outbreak after the marginal -NAO stuff then a Southeast ridge, I was thinking at one point we’d keep the Blocking but per HM, if we switch to maritime forcing, and get that NPAC jet extension/dump out west, down goes February, I think this time is has more legs because the GEFS sorta hints at -EPO which is all or nothing
And oh yeah ninas in feb normally suck
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We probably get there eventually but the gfs/gefs are probably too fast. What I find interesting about that gfs run is the fact it starts getting that big vortex near the lakes then it starts digging the western trough. Obviously that's more upstream driven than downstream but you can't help but wonder if the gfs is erroring there. Maybe the model feels the block out front and instead of shearing the energy under the block its consolidating and digging? Idk maybe just a coincidence in the timing
 
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