Montana bout to cash in!Well then...Days 11-16...
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Nice looking blocking tho.
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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Nice looking blocking tho.
whatalife
Moderator
I expect it will change with the next run. The good thing is we're at least trending toward more of a 50/50 signal. That's good. I'm still not quite convinced that we're going to be all that cold, but we don't have any control over the matter, so there's not much to do but continue to watch and wait.
whatalife
Moderator
But what about the SSW event coupled with a possible -EPO.?.That’s got to mean cold for the SE, right? #Sarcasm
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NoSnowATL
Member
NCSNOW
Member
Down to 37 and rain starting.
I may be getting too weenieish but the setup is certainly close to one where we could drop in a multiple days near or below freezing air mass into the SE
Unfortunately a few small changes and it's a few days near 70
whatalife
Moderator
Montanasnow30
Member
Can someone post the full gefs member for this map
LickWx
Member
Wednesday and Thursday look like they want to get into the low 60s here possibly with sun! Please oh please do it ! Let’s enjoy some mild weather . Dang shame I probably will be stuck working the whole time . I’ll definitely find time for a hike though .
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Getting very strong Mar 2018 vibes with this look on the models. Considering there were 3 accumulating snow events east of the mountains within 2 weeks in mid-late March when our climo for cold sucks, & despite the fact that a -PNA is showing up, we're still definitely headed towards a great pattern in late Jan & we'll have plenty of cold to work w/ overall.
LickWx
Member
March 2018 , the month ( honestly year ) Raleigh was freezing its balls off while Charlotte and Atlanta were like 5 degrees warmer for the entire month . Talk about nuts and aggravating . We were cold for the month they were freaking avg to warmer than avg. I had never seen such a monthly difference over short distance .
NoSnowATL
Member
Yea we need that pattern then. NOPE.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah that's pretty close to where we're headed late Jan/early Feb based on the models except now we have way better climo for cold/snow & we still got 3 events in mid-late Mar. One caveat may be it's easier to get bigger wave breaks in Mar because the background flow is slower & wavelengths are shorter, but even still, you gotta like our chances here...
Downeastnc
Member
And its literally like this every single winter.....model SUCK with wholesale pattern changes...they always have, they always put them off for too long and then reverse them in only a few weeks only to have the pattern hold weeks longer than they show.....its IMPOSSIBLE for the models to catch and time every S/W that is gonna drop in....I wouldnt bet on anything after day 7 at this point.....people just need to be chill and let the pattern play out, there will be plenty of winners I think, and unfortunately a few losers but if there are not 2-3 decent widespread SE winter events between Jan 15th and Feb 15th I will be surprised....
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Im no expert at reading maps but wouldn't all those yellows along the Gulf Coast mean warm weather ? Not good for most of the south.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We don’t live at 500mb. Sfc temps often look a lot different
cd2play
Member
It depends on where the front stalls. It could mean more moisture for overrunning events... or it could turn a would be snowstorm into 35 degrees and rain. I fully expect at least the upper southeast to get a 4"+ event at some point. I wonder what the schools will do then?
Although it does look a little bit different with 2018 having the lowest heights over the Pacific rather than the NW. I don’t know how much it means though.
Yeah probably because the wavelengths are more longer now since it’s mid winter Vs March
I remember that March 2018 ULL, that was quite a impressive burst of snow but so short
That month was awesome for me, however I got screwed relative to Eden and Roxboro. I believe that was the heaviest snow I’d seen. It flipped over to sleet after about 30 minutes, but I remember the group temperature being around 50, and watching snow legitimately start to accumulate on the cracks of my sidewalk. Roanoke really jack potted like crazy that month.
Interesting reading Cohens recent update that was posted above. Winter 17/18 was mentioned and it had a major SSW event in mid February. This later contributed to that marvelous March some of us had, starting a couple of weeks later.
ICON brought the southern slider back 
Would be nice to see another model show this... that’s a textbook slider 
Decent!
What a beauty, hopefully we can get this system back on the major globals
Interesting 
What I meant by that is this, getting close to a nice flizzard event , let’s shift it south some more 
For the GFS to already be showing soundings like this under the cold pocket aloft with those snow showers, that’s pretty solid, the Low level drying is just the problem (note once you wet bulb from precip falling into the dry layer at the sfc, you get evaporative cooling, and you cool down the sfc to the wet bulb temp, it’s snow) 
Tarheelwx
Member
Slop fest. Looks Too warm.
TW
TW
This has always been the time period I’ve been interested in ... 17-20 that looks to be the time where a big cold shot settles in and we watch a wave trail on the southern side of the stalled front left behind .. THATS a classic look for southern snow.. I’m sticking with 17-20 being a good bet for a possible widespread winter event for the southeast
JLL1973
Member
The icon and gfs both give the midsouth another snow next monday
2 ULLs, 2 flizzards 
Looking at the energy on the GFS, it was much closer to something better, the S/S energy was so close to tilting/consolidating correctly, but it gets sheared 
Stormlover
Member
