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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

Myfrotho704_ said:
RIP southern slider system, maybe it’ll come back, lol View attachment 65068View attachment 65069
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FallsLake said:
The PNA going negative still scares me. The AO and NAO at least stay negative. And as Webber has pointed out, we can score without a positive PNA (..maybe with better odds). But man oh man:
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Always love a good winter time overraining event!

Hopefully the NAO can lock in a 50/50 and we get some classic CAD.
 
Rain Cold said:
Always love a good winter time overraining event!

Hopefully the NAO can lock in a 50/50 and we get some classic CAD.
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I honestly think out of the last decade here (my area at least) the best storms has been from CAD miller Bs/overrunning and a few sliders, miller As have been harder to come by, guess with the lack of blocking the last 9 years, we have it now though
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I honestly think out of the last decade here (my area at least) the best storms has been from CAD miller Bs/overrunning and a few sliders, miller As have been harder to come by, guess with the lack of blocking the last 9 years, we have it now though
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i prefer a good overrunning event personally
 
FallsLake said:
The PNA going negative still scares me. The AO and NAO at least stay negative. And as Webber has pointed out, we can score without a positive PNA (..maybe with better odds). But man oh man:
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I actually checked the numbers on this and in DJF during -AO/-NAO/-EPO w/ neutral-negative WPO & only varying the sign PNA, there is actually no significant change in the probability of winter storms in NC. Actually, there's slightly more (~4%) winter storms in days w/ -PNA in a -AO/-NAO/-EPO/neutral-negative WPO than a +PNA coupled w/ the same AO, NAO, EPO, & WPO regime.

Thus, I'm really not bothered at all by the change in sign of the PNA here, going to a -PNA is only going to change the kinds and character of winter storms we can see, not the amount or frequency.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I honestly think out of the last decade here (my area at least) the best storms has been from CAD miller Bs/overrunning and a few sliders, miller As have been harder to come by, guess with the lack of blocking the last 9 years, we have it now though
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Love me a good ole fashioned southern slider. February 2014 was epic. I will never forget how that storm progressed. For a while, it actually looked like it would miss our area and ended up being one of my favorite storms ever. The snow stuck right away because the temps were so cold. We got warmed nosed a few times, but all that did was turn the snow into a snow/ip mix. Still ended up with 8 inches. And the best part was most of us got in on the action. Such great memories.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I actually checked the numbers on this and in DJF during -AO/-NAO/-EPO w/ neutral-negative WPO & only varying the sign PNA, there is actually no significant change in the probability of winter storms in NC. Actually, there's slightly more (~4%) winter storms in days w/ -PNA in a -AO/-NAO/-EPO/neutral-negative WPO than a +PNA coupled w/ the same AO, NAO, EPO, & WPO regime.

Thus, I'm really not bothered at all by the change in sign of the PNA here, going to a -PNA is only going to change the kinds and character of winter storms we can see, not the amount or frequency.
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When I loosen the restrictions of the indices from +/-1 sigma for significant AO/NAO/EPO to 0.5 sigma to increase sample size, the cases w/ -AO/-NAO/neutral-negative WPO/-EPO coupled to -PNA actually have ~50% more winter storms per capita in DJF than those w/ +PNA. Adding a +PNA to -AO/-NAO/-EPO/neutral to -WPO probably makes the pattern cold/dry.
 
ryan1234 said:
Love me a good ole fashioned southern slider. February 2014 was epic. I will never forget how that storm progressed. For a while, it actually looked like it would miss our area and ended up being one of my favorite storms ever. The snow stuck right away because the temps were so cold. We got warmed nosed a few times, but all that did was turn the snow into a snow/ip mix. Still ended up with 8 inches. And the best part was most of us got in on the action. Such great memories.
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That was a great week. I got 3.5 inches from the wave that came through as overpeformed the day before the big storm arrived and then another 9 of snow/sleet the following two days with the big storm. Did have some freezing rain thrown in during it, but it’s pretty rare to experience 3 straight days of more than 3 inches of daytime snowfall around here.
 
Love me a good ole fashioned southern slider. February 2014 was epic. I will never forget how that storm progressed. For a while, it actually looked like it would miss our area and ended up being one of my favorite storms ever. The snow stuck right away because the temps were so cold. We got warmed nosed a few times, but all that did was turn the snow into a snow/ip mix. Still ended up with 8 inches. And the best part was most of us got in on the action. Such great memories.
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That was a nail biter until the end.. CHA set up on the second wave in a glorious snow gushing deformation band to paste the night away. MRX was way late with the Winter Storm Warnings on that one.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I honestly think out of the last decade here (my area at least) the best storms has been from CAD miller Bs/overrunning and a few sliders, miller As have been harder to come by, guess with the lack of blocking the last 9 years, we have it now though
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In other words, ice
 
ATLwxfan said:
Ugly ugly ugly GFS run. Canada blazing for a good chunk of it. If not for the -NAO we are dealing with our tulips blooming.


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That was not a bad GFS run & no Canada is actually cold for a majority of it and this starts in earnest when the blocking goes up in the NE Pacific
 
GEFS still hinting at the potential for overrunning for a large chunk of the I-40 corridor ~ Jan 19-20 just like it has for much of the last several days. I'd like to see the ridge over the N rockies push further NW into western Canada to force more cold/sinking air on the backside of this trough over the Lakes. That's how you get a better sfc high

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Been looking back at some notable wintery periods here with the -PNA. The 2011 analog Webber posted was particularly good for my area in Tennessee. it snowed for 8 or 9 days in a row with a major overunning event on the 10th that had highs in the upper 10s and low 20s with high ratio powder. I ended up with around 15 inches of snow that month Most of it falling from about Jan 6th-14th. Also had 8 inches February 13th 2014 with the PNA at -1.1.
 
Here's the 18z GEFS minus 12z GEFS z500 for days thru 9. Biggest change is much more west-based -NAO this time which means the coming -PNA will feature at best a very muted SE ridge & be filled w/ transient waves that slide east under the block instead of a big quasi-stationary trough that pumps the SE US ridge.

 
SD said:
Indeed especially since there's probably going to be a lot giving and taking away on the models as they try to resolve the locations/orientations/amplitudes of the blocking ridges
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Get ready for it it’ll be relentless, impatience is running high
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Get ready for it it’ll be relentless, impatience is running high
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I get it, don't necessarily agree with it. We've rolled into this time frame with some real clunkers but flipped later in January and had a decent winter as a whole. I would empathize more with the freakouts if it was 2/11
 
SD said:
I get it, don't necessarily agree with it. We've rolled into this time frame with some real clunkers but flipped later in January and had a decent winter as a whole. I would empathize more with the freakouts if it was 2/11
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I’m with you on that for sure, I saw a snow with the stalest airmass possible already, and several flizzards including one on Christmas, I’d consider it a decent winter so far temp wise as well
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m with you on that for sure, I saw a snow with the stalest airmass possible already, and several flizzards including one on Christmas, I’d consider it a decent winter so far temp wise as well
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If people truly enjoy winter this has been a good one. Many cool to cold days, nights below freezing, and a lack of prolonged warmth. If people are just here for snow then I see how this year could "suck" but it's freaking January 11th, most of us are just entering our best snow climo
 
SD said:
If people truly enjoy winter this has been a good one. Many cool to cold days, nights below freezing, and a lack of prolonged warmth. If people are just here for snow then I see how this year could "suck" but it's freaking January 11th, most of us are just entering our best snow climo
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Yeah exactly, and we’re not dealing with a super persistent southeast ridge, and have actual blocking (which people has complained about not having one for a long time)
 
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SD said:
If people truly enjoy winter this has been a good one. Many cool to cold days, nights below freezing, and a lack of prolonged warmth. If people are just here for snow then I see how this year could "suck" but it's freaking January 11th, most of us are just entering our best snow climo
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Agreed. I was thinking today of how much I’ve had to wear my big Carhartt coat this winter compared to last. It’s night and day and has felt winter like for the better part of 6 weeks or more.
 
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