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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

I’ll just leave this right here. Last 7 days on the EPS
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Webberweather53 said:
288 hr EPS showing a closed mid-level ridge north of Alaska in the arctic circle.

Should start to see some of the really cold air over Siberia get transported across the pond & into N America once this feature goes up.

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Those are fairly impressive anomalies w/ the Aleutian low + west coast ridge in particular, for >10 days out. That alone is promising IMO since it implies some fairly good agreement among ensemble members in the longer range.

I wish more model sites would make graphics that quantified the spread among ensemble members, and not just show the ensemble means.
 
Honestly I don’t see much bad about going forward ... while these threats are showing up a bit too warm.. I’m telling y’all upper level lows almost always over preform here across the South East like they even have this year. We’re getting to be the best time of the year and we’re just a few degrees off? Even the EURO has onset flurries across NC and I could see this doing the old sneak on us once we get closer and giving more cold air than what we’re seeing right now or maybe some convective nature helping us out ... maybe something we have to let the NAM see ?
 
I know the cold air is marginal at best, but the Friday-Saturday system remains intriguing to me. If we can get just enough high pressure to the north and the upper low to move to our south as some guidance suggests, there could be some wet snow to be had in places.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Mid Atlantic hand off. Figures
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This may be reaching a bit, but if that system on the 8th-9th puts down a good snow cover over VA, MD, and southern PA, could their be little bit colder air at the surface for the following system to draw into. It seems like both of these we’re just talking a matter of a few degrees and either one of them could turn into something decent for the NC Piedmont
 
SD said:
I'd be ok with a brief change over for an hour. I can count on 3 fingers the number of snowfalls I've seen since April 2018
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That ULL showing up sorta reminds me a little bit of that one in March 2018 (except this time it’s definitely warmer) and likely would be much less if any, @Ollie Williams do you have a map for that one at H5 ?
 
ATLwxfan said:
Seems like we kick the can till the MJO goes unfavorable and then...we kick more cans.


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Someone, I think it was @Ollie Williams had a composite of winterstorms and MJO phases. All phases looked similar to me for producing winterstorms, especially in Feb. except phase 1. Which I had always thought was a good phase. I do believe the MJO can affect the overall pattern whether it's a torch or not. But undividual winterstorms not so much. The more I learn each year the more I'm convinced it really doesn't matter the indexes or pattern. It just takes luck around here. The advertised pattern coming surely helps odds but still need luck.
 
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