Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

[Arcc]

Come on y’all. It’s only a 567dm ridge over Greenland.

 

[CaryWx]

View attachment 64989
Strengthen that NE high in tandem with that gulf low and...

If that is an in-time strengthening HP in the flow or building south we're in business as well I would think. Crash that LP into it.

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol. Sure... let's try to split the polar vortex too while we're at it.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Makes the southeast ridge look weaksauce

 

[Webberweather53]

Makes the southeast ridge look weaksauce View attachment 64993View attachment 64994

I want to really build that ridge over Alaska right into the Arctic so that cold air over Siberia starts to get transported our way. Risk of a SE ridge for a while w/ that pattern but serious cold air will eventually be in our backyard w/ said pattern

 

[Stormdoc]

Day 10 Euro really makes that cross polar connection here. -NAO still stout and we would finally have a bitter cold feed Rain Cold has been harping about. Much better run of Euro overall.

 

[Stormdoc]

It is also great to see those blue Hs with big numbers next to them over Greenland and Alaska.

 

[SETNwx]

Lol. Sure... let's try to split the polar vortex too while we're at it.

View attachment 64991

Congrats again, Madrid..

 

[Webberweather53]

Already some pretty decent changes on the EPS vs even this morning's 0z out to day 4. Looks like it actually caved to the GEFS in the end w/ bigger trough over the plains & Lakes around this time

Old run




New run

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Finally. Please stay and improve

 

[SETNwx]

Wha happened to the 12z Gfs?

 

[SETNwx]

this looks like pure lunacy...

 

[Webberweather53]

Just got under a decent return with some light rain, sleet and a few small flakes, but its now basically drizzle
That’s another flizzard, which makes 6, I’m on a roll

Nice. Anyone else down there in the SW Piedmont see anything? Probably gonna map this event given the legit snow that’s breaking out east of the mountains now. Looks like a dusting on the ground in Morganton

 

[SETNwx]

Something happened, in those missing days.. lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GEFS has a -WPO towards the end with a strange upper air pattern
GFS......have we seen something like that look before ?

 

[LickWx]

GEFS has a -WPO towards the end with a strange upper air pattern View attachment 65001View attachment 65002View attachment 65003
GFS......View attachment 65004have we seen something like that look before ?

I just think the Gfs is having a hard time figuring out where the southeast is as some of our esteemed members .... cough dewwwy Dan.... so it places the southeast ridge in the wrong spot over texas . It will move it later. Kind of how models struggle with the PV

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I know 2014 had that Big -WPO, this almost just looks like a -NAO Version lol

 

[Webberweather53]

Massive changes on the EPS even thru day 8-9.

Huge trend to more west-based -NAO by day 6-7

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Massive changes on the EPS even thru day 8-9.

Huge trend to more west-based -NAO by day 6-7

View attachment 65009

View attachment 65008

I know it’s been said but it’s truly saving us, bet we’d be cliff diving if it wasn’t there

 

[Webberweather53]

Run-to-run change thru day 11 looks basically like today's 12z operational

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Those blocks tho

 

[KyloG]

Run-to-run change thru day 11 looks basically like today's 12z operational

View attachment 65015

It shocks you when you see the EPS change that much from run to run. It going to dump a ton of cold into the conus.

 

[Webberweather53]

It shocks you when you see the EPS change that much from run to run. It going to dump a ton of cold into the conus.

Yep. The SE ridge we see probably is transient too when you consider that giant -NAO sitting overhead

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Might become a -WPO here a few frames later

 

[Stormdoc]

Is this the result of models “seeing” the SSW effects on the troposphere Webb? It seems in my experience this often occurs quite suddenly

 

[Mitch West]

Seems like we are kinda entering a pattern where a Winter storm could pop up on models at a relatively short range out of nowhere.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Webberweather53]

Is this the result of models “seeing” the SSW effects on the troposphere Webb? It seems in my experience this often occurs quite suddenly

The SSW is already significantly effecting the troposphere, that block over Greenland has been coupled to the stratosphere for a while.

 

[GaStorm]

Correct me if I'm wrong but it seems that Greenland and Alaskan block will work in tandem to crank out some arctic air.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Webberweather53]

Fwiw, every winter storm (n = 13) since 1950 that has occurred in DJF in NC w/ a significant -AO/-NAO/-PNA/-EPO were either overrunning or Miller B/CAD events.

 

[KyloG]

Yep. The SE ridge we see probably is transient too when you consider that giant -NAO sitting overhead

Good grief...that looks interesting.

 

[Webberweather53]

Correct me if I'm wrong but it seems that Greenland and Alaskan block will work in tandem to crank out some arctic air.

Most of the truly arctic air is gonna be thanks to that big block over Alaska.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol looks like cross polar flow beginning to crank on the EPS in the LR

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol looks like cross polar flow beginning to crank on the EPS in the LR View attachment 65020

A transient SE ridge is a relatively small price to pay to inject some true arctic air into this pattern and keep the west-based -NAO cranking.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

lol wtf, summer like 585dm ridge near Alaska on the control

 

[Webberweather53]

EPS has that Jan 10-11 2011 look to it

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The EPS/control show that suppressed southeast ridge retrograde west towards the pacific..... I’ve never seen that sort of evolution tbh >>

 

[Webberweather53]

EPS has that Jan 10-11 2011 look to it

View attachment 65025


View attachment 65026

Jan 17-18 2000 is the other storm that keeps showing up consistently as an analog to this z500a. Probably the most epic clipper of all time lol

 

[Tarheel1]

88’ was a +

Fwiw, every winter storm (n = 13) since 1950 that has occurred in DJF in NC w/ a significant -AO/-NAO/-PNA/-EPO were either overrunning or Miller B/CAD events.

88 was a + NAO, overrunning event? I thought?