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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

See, this is fine with me. I know it's a 384 operational, but I'm simply looking for signs that arctic air will be nearby and that it doesn’t just shoot in and out. As you can see, there's plenty of cold around our part of the world. And it is like that for much of the run.

The devil is always in the details, but as long as we have real, bona fide cold nearby, then we are in the game, and I feel good about that. I do not feel good about marginal situations and modified or stale polar air where we have to rely solely on dynamic cooling. That's much more of a low percentage way to get a big widespread SE winter, than to have arctic air incorporated into a storm.

With a cold air source available, now we will wait for shortwaves in an active pattern to make use of it. Hopefully, we'll see that play out soon.

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Here is the 7 day 500 mb and 850 temps from the ensemble 00z runs.
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-PNAs aren't going to have the same meaning when you have a gigantic block over the Baffin Bay, we aren't going to be warm and dry in a pattern like that. Just because you see a huge western trough over consecutive 5-day means on an ensemble also doesn't mean that pattern is gonna persist the entire time. It's more like transient western troughs that hand off towards the Lakes and slide underneath the block. We definitely run the risk of getting Miller Bs & ice storms w/ this look esp if the TPV drops towards the CONUS and we get a properly timed wave over the southern Rockies
 
Rain Cold said:
See, this is fine with me. I know it's a 384 operational, but I'm simply looking for signs that arctic air will be nearby and that it doesn’t just shoot in and out. As you can see, there's plenty of cold around our part of the world. And it is like that for much of the run.

The devil is always in the details, but as long as we have real, bona fide cold nearby, then we are in the game, and I feel good about that. I do not feel good about marginal situations and modified or stale polar air where we have to rely solely on dynamic cooling. That's much more of a low percentage way to get a big widespread SE winter, than to have arctic air incorporated into a storm.

With a cold air source available, now we will wait for shortwaves in an active pattern to make use of it. Hopefully, we'll see that play out soon.

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Yep, that'll do it. All we need to do is drop the stupid -NAO, and go back to a +PNA and -EPO. Barneys then show up all over the southeast. LOL. What you're saying is we need to go back to 2014.

?:)

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Webberweather53 said:
If we drop the -NAO, the -PNA will rage and we'll torch.

No.
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I was going to say. Sure let’s do that and punt the rest of winter. Hello last winter? Really the biggest thing I see different so far is the -NAO and it’s saving our ass

and that was directed at the post that you replied too. Lol
 
Webberweather53 said:
If we drop the -NAO, the -PNA will rage and we'll torch.

No.
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Do you have any thoughts as to why we keep seeing these blockbuster long range patterns beyond D10 slowly evaporate as they come closer? Other than my theory about model resolution and the persistent Greenland blocking somehow being overamplified and causing all these modeling errors, that's all I have.
 
whatalife said:
No they do not. Which of these are you willing to bet is more right.?.I’d rather air on the side of the EPS and be pleasantly surprised if they are wrong.


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Yeah for sure. Although, it seems like one of those winters where the chillier scenarios may be favored? Probably NAO related. I guess we'll see soon enough.

deltadog03 said:
Once that subtropical trof kicks SE of Hawaii we should be good.
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That's one of those things that JB always harped on...having a trough east of HI is a good thing for the east coast.

SnowNiner said:
Yep, that'll do it. All we need to do is drop the stupid -NAO, and go back to a +PNA and -EPO. Barneys then show up all over the southeast. LOL. What you're saying is we need to go back to 2014.

?:)

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Yeah a +PNA in the right spot is good. Our -EPOs of late haven't done us a lot of good, but that doesn't mean they can't, if coupled with a well-placed western ridge. We've seen a lot of western troughs in winters of late. I like having a -NAO, and I'm glad we finally have a winter where it's showing up on the reg...or at least appears to be. But as I've said, we need a mechanism to inject some non-modified arctic air into the SE. Otherwise, outside of a very lucky intersection of events, congrats Texas and northern mid-south and midwest and mountains and northeast and Canada and Russia and Europe and Mexico and everywhere except most of us in the SE.
 
sdm47 said:
Do you have any thoughts as to why we keep seeing these blockbuster long range patterns beyond D10 slowly evaporate as they come closer? Other than my theory about model resolution and the persistent Greenland blocking somehow being overamplified and causing all these modeling errors, that's all I have.
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I've wondered this too. We see this just about every year. It's not always the case, but more often than not, when you see horrible long range patterns, you end up with decent verification. When you see favorable long range patterns, they get muted and turn less favorable as we work in. I know you were asking Webber, but this is a recurring thing and it sucks. Still, I'd rather see modeled good patterns than bad, because it's just more fun when fantasy storms show up...plus the meltdowns can be epic lol...
 
sdm47 said:
Do you have any thoughts as to why we keep seeing these blockbuster long range patterns beyond D10 slowly evaporate as they come closer? Other than my theory about model resolution and the persistent Greenland blocking somehow being overamplified and causing all these modeling errors, that's all I have.
Click to expand...


Partly it is because many forget the difference between model runs and ensemble mean. Just because it shows wall to wall cold from 240hrs to 384hrs does not mean wall to wall cold. The ensemble mean will spread a look over days until the ensembles start to agree which then it will look like the period evaporates. In reality weather patterns ebb and flow.

If you take the ensembles into account as many Op runs, you can get a better grasp on reality.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah for sure. Although, it seems like one of those winters where the chillier scenarios may be favored? Probably NAO related. I guess we'll see soon enough.



That's one of those things that JB always harped on...having a trough east of HI is a good thing for the east coast.



Yeah a +PNA in the right spot is good. Our -EPOs of late haven't done us a lot of good, but that doesn't mean they can't, if coupled with a well-placed western ridge. We've seen a lot of western troughs in winters of late. I like having a -NAO, and I'm glad we finally have a winter where it's showing up on the reg...or at least appears to be. But as I've said, we need a mechanism to inject some non-modified arctic air into the SE. Otherwise, outside of a very lucky intersection of events, congrats Texas and northern mid-south and midwest and mountains and northeast and Canada and Russia and Europe and Mexico and everywhere except most of us in the SE.
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I agree, I'm just making fun of the completely different pattern that model run represented. I'm also glad we finally have somewhat of a -NAO. I think one could argue however without a better 50/50 low signal the greenland ridging isn't doing us much good. It may be pushing some vorts south and pressing the SE ridge, but its not delivering us any cold air. So I think we may be missing a key ingredient here. Looking back at good -NAO winters, that seems to be the common denominator that stands out to me; ridging over greenland but large, strong negative anomalies in the 50/50 region and off the east coast. I'm at the point to where if all the -NAO is doing is keeping the SE ridge at bay and we don't snow, is that a win?

I know that the only other likely outcome in a Nina is all SE ridge so I guess this is the best we get this year.

At some point in March or April I'm sure we'll learn that somehow the SSW hurt us. Europe though is rockin!
 
Using temp data at GSO and looking for periods in DJF w/ -AO/-NAO/-PNA/-EPO/+WPO temperatures are pretty much all over the place. Basically 60-40 odds of above vs below normal temps with a mean and median within a degree of normal and standard deviation of ~9F. Out of respect for basic state climate changes, add a couple degrees to this and you pretty much have the overall look temp wise of what we're gonna encounter in this period.
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's always been something there just hasn't had much of a reflection on model precip forecast fields
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These are my favorites, the ones the models miss or have too weak that trend into a solid event in the 3-5 days leading up to it....in a pattern like this with a active southern jet there are always those pieces of the puzzle that get missed in the 7+ day range....
 
Downeastnc said:
These are my favorites, the ones the models miss or have too weak that trend into a solid event in the 3-5 days leading up to it....in a pattern like this with a active southern jet there are always those pieces of the puzzle that get missed in the 7+ day range....
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Not my favorite. Had enough of this. Pass.icon_T2m_seus_19.png
 
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