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Pattern January 2021 - Joyless January

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NWS Birmingham, Alabama
Weather Forecast Office
Heavy Snow & Ice Event - January 9-10, 2011
Weather.gov > NWS Birmingham, Alabama > Heavy Snow & Ice Event - January 9-10, 2011
Heavy Snow and Ice Event of January 9-10, 2011

On the morning of Sunday, January 9th, a low pressure system formed in the Gulf of Mexico just off the Texas coast. This low pressure system traveled parallel to the Gulf Coast throughout the day on Sunday and into the day on Monday before moving over the Florida Panhandle and off the Atlantic Seaboard Monday night. Even though the system weakened as it moved eastward, it brought moisture across Central Alabama, where cold temperatures were already in place from a cold front that had moved through Friday and Saturday, the 7th and 8th of January.
sfc analysis sfc analysis
Surface Analysis from 6 PM Sunday Surface Analysis from 12 AM Monday
sfc analysis sfc analysis
Surface Analysis from 6 AM Monday Surface Analysis from 12 PM Monday
By noon on Sunday, weak reflectivities were already on the radar, though, it wasn't until about 2 PM that afternoon when Tuscaloosa began reporting unknown precipitation. The bulk of the activity started later that evening, but because of an elevated warm layer of air that moved inland as the low pressure system passed to the south of Alabama, the southern half of the county warning area didn't receive any snow -- just ice and sleet. By daybreak Monday morning, areas north of Interstate 20 were reporting anywhere from 1 to 14 inches of snow with the heaviest totals near the Alabama-Tennessee state line. Ice reports were as high as 0.50 inches in multiple counties south of Interstate 20.
Snow and Ice Totals

The ice and snow from Sunday night and Monday morning created havoc across most of the state. By Sunday evening, businesses and schools had already declared they would be closed on Monday and for good reason. Road conditions around central Alabama caused many counties to declare that roads would be closed overnight Sunday night. Unfortunately, this winter weather event caused the loss of at least 2 lives on area roadways because of slick conditions.
Though the majority of the activity was over by Monday night, the effects of the system were felt for the next couple of days. Areas that saw excessive amounts of snow were plagued with melting and refreezing on area roadways for the next couple of days, creating slick conditions through Wednesday, January 12th.
Sleet in Maylene Snow in Oneonta
Sleet in Maylene, AL. Storm Totals of 2.5 inches. Snow in Oneonta, AL.
Submitted by Kristina Sumrall. Submitted by Blount County EMA.
Snow in St. Clair Snow in Pell City
Snow at the courthouse in St. Clair County. Snow in downtown Pell City.
Submitted by Patrice Payne. Submitted by Patrice Payne.
Satellite of Snow
Visible Satellite Image of Snow 3 Days Later
If you have any pictures from this event you would like to share with us, please email them to [email protected]. Images can be submitted in any format, but please try to keep the file sizes below 500 Kb. Please include a date and location the image was taken, and a brief description. Although not every detail is needed, be as specific as you can. For proper credit for the image, also include your name and location.

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Same type of low pressure is popping up on models but the big difference is, we don’t have a big system bombing out towards our NE acting as confluence, looking at that, now it makes me want to sacrifice the first ULL and turn it into a slow moving NE bomb for our second one
 
Thanks! And sorry for the follow-on question here.. for the table from @Webberweather53, do you know if magnitude of the MJO is incorporated somehow? Looking at the forecast, I'm not sure how much the MJO is driving our pattern:

View attachment 61886
This is something I’ve noticed for the last several weeks. The MJO has been very low amped for the most part and at times has been in COD. The last several winters you could look at the MJO and see it going very close to the outside of the charts.
 
Thanks! And sorry for the follow-on question here.. for the table from @Webberweather53, do you know if magnitude of the MJO is incorporated somehow? Looking at the forecast, I'm not sure how much the MJO is driving our pattern:

View attachment 61886
Just remember that RMM plots aren't necessarily very good to match up with composites and analogs, since in reality, the MJO is much more complex. I read a post over on 33andRain and saw this graphic that shows each phase's correlation to temperatures on the east coast. Notice that even though phase 4-5-6 are warm, it doesn't mean that much temperature-wise on the east coast, if I'm reading this right. Obviously, if it's even weaker it will mean less, vs staying in high amplitude MC for a month with a strong PV as we did in 2019-2020. That's why I wouldn't freak out about going into the MC in February because we still gain the benefits from the Strat warm and AAM.
combined_image.png
 

I think I remember this quite well ... one of the very few times the sleet/snow line actually wavered in our favor (wake county specifically apex is where I was at) cold air was much stronger than anticipated and there for the rates of snow we had piled the snow up quickly .. if I am remembering correctly
 
If 00z is the same or even better and continues into tomorrow night and other models join and it stays, than there might be something legit, Surface temps here will be the biggest issue, control had snow falling around 34-37 637603AA-C538-4520-9124-7B11EB04F164.png55FABEE3-6A9D-4C19-8F7B-3AFFF3892AAD.pngC5F4B36D-BDBD-48A3-9E8D-0C0306F43216.png1809883D-CF44-4E27-B9F5-67D1C8F2536E.png
 
National Weather ServiceUnited States Department of Commerce


Local forecast by
"City, St" or ZIP code
Location Help
News Headlines

NWS Birmingham, Alabama
Weather Forecast Office
Heavy Snow & Ice Event - January 9-10, 2011
Weather.gov > NWS Birmingham, Alabama > Heavy Snow & Ice Event - January 9-10, 2011
Heavy Snow and Ice Event of January 9-10, 2011

On the morning of Sunday, January 9th, a low pressure system formed in the Gulf of Mexico just off the Texas coast. This low pressure system traveled parallel to the Gulf Coast throughout the day on Sunday and into the day on Monday before moving over the Florida Panhandle and off the Atlantic Seaboard Monday night. Even though the system weakened as it moved eastward, it brought moisture across Central Alabama, where cold temperatures were already in place from a cold front that had moved through Friday and Saturday, the 7th and 8th of January.
sfc analysis sfc analysis
Surface Analysis from 6 PM Sunday Surface Analysis from 12 AM Monday
sfc analysis sfc analysis
Surface Analysis from 6 AM Monday Surface Analysis from 12 PM Monday
By noon on Sunday, weak reflectivities were already on the radar, though, it wasn't until about 2 PM that afternoon when Tuscaloosa began reporting unknown precipitation. The bulk of the activity started later that evening, but because of an elevated warm layer of air that moved inland as the low pressure system passed to the south of Alabama, the southern half of the county warning area didn't receive any snow -- just ice and sleet. By daybreak Monday morning, areas north of Interstate 20 were reporting anywhere from 1 to 14 inches of snow with the heaviest totals near the Alabama-Tennessee state line. Ice reports were as high as 0.50 inches in multiple counties south of Interstate 20.
Snow and Ice Totals

The ice and snow from Sunday night and Monday morning created havoc across most of the state. By Sunday evening, businesses and schools had already declared they would be closed on Monday and for good reason. Road conditions around central Alabama caused many counties to declare that roads would be closed overnight Sunday night. Unfortunately, this winter weather event caused the loss of at least 2 lives on area roadways because of slick conditions.
Though the majority of the activity was over by Monday night, the effects of the system were felt for the next couple of days. Areas that saw excessive amounts of snow were plagued with melting and refreezing on area roadways for the next couple of days, creating slick conditions through Wednesday, January 12th.
Sleet in Maylene Snow in Oneonta
Sleet in Maylene, AL. Storm Totals of 2.5 inches. Snow in Oneonta, AL.
Submitted by Kristina Sumrall. Submitted by Blount County EMA.
Snow in St. Clair Snow in Pell City
Snow at the courthouse in St. Clair County. Snow in downtown Pell City.
Submitted by Patrice Payne. Submitted by Patrice Payne.
Satellite of Snow
Visible Satellite Image of Snow 3 Days Later
If you have any pictures from this event you would like to share with us, please email them to [email protected]. Images can be submitted in any format, but please try to keep the file sizes below 500 Kb. Please include a date and location the image was taken, and a brief description. Although not every detail is needed, be as specific as you can. For proper credit for the image, also include your name and location.
I got 10 1/2 inches in NW Madison County near Huntsville. One of the sweet spots ;-) Got 4 inches in 1 hour! It was paradise
 
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