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Wintry Winter 2021/2022 Model Archive

Ollie Williams

It Gon' Rain
Meteorology Student
Member
Joined
Jul 16, 2019
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Location
Raleigh, NC
Fall/Winter is coming! This is much earlier than I anticipated to start the thread, but nevertheless, I'm excited! This is our third edition of the Winter Archive thread series! I'm hoping that we actually get a memorable storm this time around. This thread should track the successes and failures of not just our chances of getting snow, but model accuracy as well. Hopefully, this doesn't become the GFS model thread again. I think this thread had its act together last winter, unlike the hurricane thread. Last year we got 160 considerable runs, and 178 the year before. Let's see if we can beat that!

This thread is pretty easy to maintain, so I don't mind doing it. If you are interested in posting, I stress to please follow the rules below. They are the same as last year.

Structural rules for posting:
1. Please keep all banter, and post reactions out of the thread. For example, if I were to post a map, please do not quote the post, and reply below, "That would be interesting," for example. If you do want to do that, quote the post and reply in the banter thread. Hopefully, mods can help manage that if it becomes an issue.
2. When posting please add the date, and model name, and run to the top of the post, for example, 12z GFS 1/1/2022
3. In the post, add a link to where the model run is discussed/posted. This is a new rule and something that I want to try and would be much more useful, than having to go through the catalog.


Criteria for posting model maps:
I'm leaving this very broad. Whatever snow maps seem impressive, but not redundant. Let's try to keep it in the SE.

If you have any questions, PM me, without further ado, happy winter!
-Ollie Williams

12z GFS 9/16/21
Operational GFS snow in the mountains
2055F663-3D96-4B97-8EF4-A07674925B08.jpggfs_z500a_us_53.pngf7eab8dc-4cdb-482e-9cbe-b5fc8799fc83.gif
 
00z GEFS Member #5
Widespread Southeast Snow!
38FD8748-769E-4807-AD9C-9EE669F5D945.png
B48B728C-4847-4C6F-BA73-264B95ABF881.gif
363619B7-B7A0-41F4-AE6A-94A48477C2FC.png
 
12z ICON 10/29
First Wintery ICON run!
79433362.gificon-all-carolinas-total_snow_10to1-6156800.pngicon-all-conus-z500_anom-6156800.pngicon-all-carolinas-t2m_f-6092000.png
 
12z CMC 11/12
Nice NC Coastal
gem-all-carolinas-instant_ptype-1636718400-1637388000-1637485200-40.gifgem-all-carolinas-total_snow_10to1-7485200.pnggem-all-namer-z500_anom-7431200.pnggem-all-namer-vort500_z500-7431200.pnggem-all-conus-t2m_f_anom-7431200.png
 
00z GFS 11/15
A good chunk of the SE gets in on this one!
EC2ADA7E-80E0-4F32-9B39-0F45D9B6B2F5.gif
B3262E0D-3B3F-4BFB-9B47-521F87E3D714.png

 
12z GFS 11/15
Bomb Cyclone
9DE2E009-9EC1-4459-8AFD-254515EDF303.gif
9D851A58-8BF8-4A8F-9F06-E2F55F026F86.png
CE47CC05-7283-434F-8450-0CC4A4D75A57.png
 
18z GFS 12/11
Best run so far -- lights out down to GA 3in ice! 6in sleet SC! 12in snow NC!
gfs-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-1639245600-1640498400-1640628000-40.gifgfs-deterministic-carolinas-total_snow_10to1-0628000.pnggfs-deterministic-carolinas-sleet_total-0628000.pnggfs-deterministic-carolinas-frzr_total-0628000.png

 
00z GFS 12/13
White Christmas!
gfs-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-1639353600-1640304000-1640412000-40.gifgfs-deterministic-carolinas-total_snow_10to1-0433600.png
 
00z GFS 12/20
Overrunning event west of the apps
76AD8C49-E5AA-4BE4-8F64-07473400EB8F.gif
4BC7E44F-6E60-48AB-9F94-DEA0C34A4066.png
5A02B183-E80C-4F44-B036-A247B115EE30.png
3C182B5D-D62A-472D-987E-452846AF5DFF.png
 
00z Euro Control 12/21
Northern NC Snow Event
ecmwf-ensemble-c00-conus-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1640044800-1641124800-1641232800-40.gifecmwf-ensemble-c00-se-total_snow_10to1-1276000.png
 
18z GFS 12/24
Mid Atlantic Event, but some of the board gets snow
F426982F-C9D9-4A42-B901-8EB30B276B3C.gif
216973C6-5D30-420C-A8D3-EBBCDAEB187C.png
BEAA6977-640A-4D5B-8973-DC3C159DFA93.png
 
Last edited:
12z Euro 12/27
Cold chasing moisture setup.
ecmwf-deterministic-se-instant_ptype-1640606400-1641146400-1641232800-40.gif
ecmwf-deterministic-se-total_snow_10to1-1254400.png
 
06z GFS 12/31
Nice Classic Coastal Event
002297EB-0718-49DD-B7AF-8B687C307A29.gif
80C9C93C-496A-45A1-B60A-B7DB278081DF.png
 
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