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Pattern Novemburrr

Myfrotho704_ said:
still here comes the big EC trough/TPV in Canada, not a fan of that stuff in AK it’s gonna make things more fast/have a tendency to spread in mild air from the pacific View attachment 95023
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Maybe it can help retrograde the NAO if it digs enough
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This look is getting old, I love a -NAO but everytime we get a block cold air evacuates to the other side of the world and that pacific becomes a crap salad, of course it’s hard to get a -EPO/-NAO at the same time but it has happened View attachment 95030View attachment 95031
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That's a pretty beefy block on the gfs and much better than the budget version we had last year. In the heart of winter I'd be excited, this time of year not so much
 
SD said:
That's a pretty beefy block on the gfs and much better than the budget version we had last year. In the heart of winter I'd be excited, this time of year not so much
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Yeah i agree, but I dont really like what the GFS is doing pushing back the cold air towards the other side of the world in time for December, thank goodness it’s just a OP model
 
Something I'm watching over the next few days is the nao and the amount of cold/cool and troughing in the east. Seems like the models have a tendency to want to flatten the flow and warm in the east at extended leads in the east and trend cooler more troughed as we get closer in time. But that is really all pointless if the pac falls apart
 
SD said:
Something I'm watching over the next few days is the nao and the amount of cold/cool and troughing in the east. Seems like the models have a tendency to want to flatten the flow and warm in the east at extended leads in the east and trend cooler more troughed as we get closer in time. But that is really all pointless if the pac falls apart
Click to expand...
When last time the pacific has been good to us lately ? Lol. Can’t really remember
 
SD said:
Something I'm watching over the next few days is the nao and the amount of cold/cool and troughing in the east. Seems like the models have a tendency to want to flatten the flow and warm in the east at extended leads in the east and trend cooler more troughed as we get closer in time. But that is really all pointless if the pac falls apart
Click to expand...

Last year, we saw the same type of pattern in the models. We would see the promise of pronounced blocking and deep troughing over the EC in the long range, where it would slowly but surely back off during days 5-8 before returning to some lesser degree.

The pacific is the key to any sustainable pro-winter wx pattern this year as it was last. We can get the -NAO, but can we get the -EPO and ridging out west that doesn't spit vorticity after vorticity into the NW PAC.
 
SD said:
That's a pretty beefy block on the gfs and much better than the budget version we had last year. In the heart of winter I'd be excited, this time of year not so much
Click to expand...
Even if we could have that work about the 2nd week of December it could produce cold enough air. It would be nice to fix that mess in the GOA though
 
alfoman said:
Last year, we saw the same type of pattern in the models. We would see the promise of pronounced blocking and deep troughing over the EC in the long range, where it would slowly but surely back off during days 5-8 before returning to some lesser degree.

The pacific is the key to any sustainable pro-winter wx pattern this year as it was last. We can get the -NAO, but can we get the -EPO and ridging out west that doesn't spit vorticity after vorticity into the NW PAC.
Click to expand...
That was true with the February Arctic outbreak east of the Apps, but for most of last winter, it was actually warm ups getting delayed as models got closer to verification. Most of that was due to the persistent blocking that set up. Right now even with the look that we’re seeing modeled with a shallow Pacific ridge, that could still tap into some cold air that’s been building in NW Canada (something that was very delayed last year)… it’s not as good tapping into a Siberian airmass, but it can get the job done north of I-20 as we go into December.
 
alfoman said:
Last year, we saw the same type of pattern in the models. We would see the promise of pronounced blocking and deep troughing over the EC in the long range, where it would slowly but surely back off during days 5-8 before returning to some lesser degree.

The pacific is the key to any sustainable pro-winter wx pattern this year as it was last. We can get the -NAO, but can we get the -EPO and ridging out west that doesn't spit vorticity after vorticity into the NW PAC.
Click to expand...
The big issue with the models over the past few years has been their tendency to amp up pacific ridging past d7 only to back down as time gets closer. I'm not entirely sure why they are doing so but it has been fairly noticeable
 
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