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Pattern December to Remember

Stephenb888 said:
Well if this is the case then why even bother being on here. If it never changes lol
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Because we like punishment lol. But like @Myfrotho704_ said it will eventually change but when every single teleconnection is against you right now anything showing more than a day or two cold shot are most likely wrong. This pattern is trash, about as bad as it gets and it's so stable that even a certain met from Charlotte punted December the other day. I never thought I would have seen that from him.
 
Faco Thomas said:
Well with the MJO being in phase 6( even stronger in that phase than models have predictied),I doubt it's going to get cold in the SE (outside of maybe 1-2 day cool shots) atleast around Christmas day or so.Maybe even later. No one is saying winter is over. People are simply that it's going a lot to flip this pattern around. Accroding to the GEFS in the longer range,the 850 maybe above 0 all way to basically the US/Canadian border. As people have already,the first signs ofa true patterns change, look cold being build up in the Northern plains/Rocky Mountain states,then expand to midwest/Great Lake states/the NE, than hopefully at some point the SE.
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I'm saying winter is over. It's wall to wall warmth this winter. Merry torchmus, golf ⛳ weather, pool weather, mjo phase 6 all winter RNA dominated winter cold Alaska with a severe la nina positive NAO haven't you heard?
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Because we like punishment lol. But like @Myfrotho704_ said it will eventually change but when every single teleconnection is against you right now anything showing more than a day or two cold shot are most likely wrong. This pattern is trash, about as bad as it gets and it's so stable that even a certain met from Charlotte punted December the other day. I never thought I would have seen that from him.
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I'm nearing the point of just going ahead and punting December from now on, even before-hand, and not even considering December as a winter month anymore
 
I don't know about you, but for the shorter term, my attention has increased on the 12th time period as several GEFS members indicate rain changing to snow along a frontal system that shows on the 12th. It's still too early for specifics, but since it's looking like it would be a frontal system (as of now) severe weather has a good chance along and ahead of the frontal system in the southwest flow, and as the deep cold air begins converging, wet adiabatic lapse rates would be extreme causing temperatures to decrease dramatically and development of strong convection - so, if this plays out, intense snowfall could occur.

The northern stream would be tapping into this frontal system, as a cold lobe (in Canada) would progress east as the frontal system pushes off to the northeast. So, not only the process of the wet adiabatic lapse rate decreasing the temperatures, but also the cold air supply in Canada would enhance the cold air mass along and behind the front. As I was typing this, a member did post the GEFS snowfall mean, and it does indeed show snow! I think we just might have our first winter event to track, we'll see how this plays out this week.
e971dc5d57c496a18bf1cdc3778fd0ef.jpg
 
CD4583BB-679F-468E-A485-133C1650B378.png
I think it is clear that none of the models know what type of system this is going to be
 
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StormWatch said:
I don't know about you, but for the shorter term, my attention has increased on the 12th time period as several GEFS members indicate rain changing to snow along a frontal system that shows on the 12th. It's still too early for specifics, but since it's looking like it would be a frontal system (as of now) severe weather has a good chance along and ahead of the frontal system in the southwest flow, and as the deep cold air begins converging, wet adiabatic lapse rates would be extreme causing temperatures to decrease dramatically and development of strong convection - so, if this plays out, intense snowfall could occur.

The northern stream would be tapping into this frontal system, as a cold lobe (in Canada) would progress east as the frontal system pushes off to the northeast. So, not only the process of the wet adiabatic lapse rate decreasing the temperatures, but also the cold air supply in Canada would enhance the cold air mass along and behind the front. As I was typing this, a member did post the GEFS snowfall mean, and it does indeed show snow! I think we just might have our first winter event to track, we'll see how this plays out this week.
e971dc5d57c496a18bf1cdc3778fd0ef.jpg
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To add further to this, I have added the GEFS snowfall chance for this time frame. This looks very good at this range!
187aca516741a31747bbfce26e54357f.jpg
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm saying winter is over. It's wall to wall warmth this winter. Merry torchmus, golf ⛳ weather, pool weather, mjo phase 6 all winter RNA dominated winter cold Alaska with a severe la nina positive NAO haven't you heard?
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11-12 redux
 
I wish for one second I could believe the RGEM
 
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