GFS keeping it spicy next weekend. Def need to start thinking potential svr wx ahead of strong fropa and possible NW flow mtns event
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
GEFS really bringing several members with snow and ice to the Virginia border with this up coming event .. turning very miller B’ish
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
RGEM, NAM are already cold enough here for snow ?
. Very odd
JB Saturday Summary from here:
Not surprisingly, he skipped over the near term to look further ahead: he’s “tremendously concerned” that there is a “tremendous amount of cold air that the models can’t handle” (specifically the CFS and Bleaklies) because of an upcoming stratospheric vortex split (SVS around Dec 8th)(not a SSW). He said that there are often brutal cold periods 30 days after an SVS when the MJO then gets into phases 8,1, and 2. He showed Dec of 1976 and Dec of 1995 SVS’s and the subsequent brutal cold the following Januaries. He also showed the SVS of Jan of 2021 and the historic cold of Feb of 2021 in the central US. The CFS in January had Feb forecasted as very mild.
So, based on the upcoming 12/8/21 SVS and the forecasted MJO, he thinks early January will be brutally cold in much of the US. Independently of him, I’ve already shown the similarities of Nov-Dec 1984 to Nov-Dec 2021 in terms of 2M temps, MJO, and ENSO including it being 2nd year La Niña along with the hope for a severe cold reversal in January similar to 1985 even though it is an extreme.
1995-6 had similar ENSO, too, (though not 2nd year) though 1976-7 was a weak El Niño. I’ll also add that 2017-8, which included a brutal first half of January, had very similar 2nd year La Niña to now. However, none of 1995-6, 1976-7, and 2017-8 had a similar Nov-Dec to 2021 at 2M.
The CFS (admittedly not a good model that changes a lot from run to run) has shown on a number of runs solid cold in early to mid January. Are these hints of brutal cold potential? Here are some tasty maps for your Sunday viewing pleasure from the very latest CFS:
First, the map showing the strong cold coming down first in the west and central US as the E warmth is barely hanging on for the last time for awhile:
Then it comes east just before New Year’s:
There may be a juicy Miller A with this:
Then there’s 10 days averaging near normal in the SE while the next batch of very cold gets set to plunge:
Finally, here’s the 2nd period of solid cold in the C and E US:
Here’s H5 with a +PNA then:
In summary, Dec may turn out to largely be a throwaway for cold lovers. There’s a good chance that the next 3 weeks will be mainly mild in the SE with a dreaded -PNA (less than that for further west cold lovers like @Brent, @BufordWX, and @Mr. Golf). But that has little bearing on what might hit us in very late Dec and in much of January! I’d strongly advise getting outside and enjoying being out in shorts through Christmas or so because that may not be possible for another lengthy period for a long time afterward. Enjoy the wx as it is the only wx you get.
Not surprisingly, he skipped over the near term to look further ahead: he’s “tremendously concerned” that there is a “tremendous amount of cold air that the models can’t handle” (specifically the CFS and Bleaklies) because of an upcoming stratospheric vortex split (SVS around Dec 8th)(not a SSW). He said that there are often brutal cold periods 30 days after an SVS when the MJO then gets into phases 8,1, and 2. He showed Dec of 1976 and Dec of 1995 SVS’s and the subsequent brutal cold the following Januaries. He also showed the SVS of Jan of 2021 and the historic cold of Feb of 2021 in the central US. The CFS in January had Feb forecasted as very mild.
So, based on the upcoming 12/8/21 SVS and the forecasted MJO, he thinks early January will be brutally cold in much of the US. Independently of him, I’ve already shown the similarities of Nov-Dec 1984 to Nov-Dec 2021 in terms of 2M temps, MJO, and ENSO including it being 2nd year La Niña along with the hope for a severe cold reversal in January similar to 1985 even though it is an extreme.
1995-6 had similar ENSO, too, (though not 2nd year) though 1976-7 was a weak El Niño. I’ll also add that 2017-8, which included a brutal first half of January, had very similar 2nd year La Niña to now. However, none of 1995-6, 1976-7, and 2017-8 had a similar Nov-Dec to 2021 at 2M.
The CFS (admittedly not a good model that changes a lot from run to run) has shown on a number of runs solid cold in early to mid January. Are these hints of brutal cold potential? Here are some tasty maps for your Sunday viewing pleasure from the very latest CFS:
First, the map showing the strong cold coming down first in the west and central US as the E warmth is barely hanging on for the last time for awhile:
Then it comes east just before New Year’s:
There may be a juicy Miller A with this:
Then there’s 10 days averaging near normal in the SE while the next batch of very cold gets set to plunge:
Finally, here’s the 2nd period of solid cold in the C and E US:
Here’s H5 with a +PNA then:
In summary, Dec may turn out to largely be a throwaway for cold lovers. There’s a good chance that the next 3 weeks will be mainly mild in the SE with a dreaded -PNA (less than that for further west cold lovers like @Brent, @BufordWX, and @Mr. Golf). But that has little bearing on what might hit us in very late Dec and in much of January! I’d strongly advise getting outside and enjoying being out in shorts through Christmas or so because that may not be possible for another lengthy period for a long time afterward. Enjoy the wx as it is the only wx you get.
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smast16
Member
And now I'm left rooting for the GFS. Lots of warm fuzzies.
Euro:
06 gfs
Euro:
06 gfs
Nomanslandva
Member
Second NAMing of the season and it has support from every model except the GFS. The think I am watching is the last system that gave me a chance at this range trended weaker and south and gave the high elevations in NW NC a dusting or so. This one is also trending cooler and south so might be headed in the same direction. Even if it happens, it looks pretty light and possibly just white rain. EURO from pivital 18Z Wed.
bigstick10
Member
Damn, get your sled ready, lol............TV met just mentioned snow showers possible next weekend modernweenieView attachment 96870
The real jinx was me switching from all season tires to A/T lol should have kept my 500 bucks. As you've alluded I believe it will be a few weeks before we get out of this torch pattern I'd like to see the mjo move to 8 in time for January
tennessee storm
Member
I suspect Janauary start out to be much same be honest … still being a moderate Nina at least … jb is grasping for straws now
Here's just a little of Joe D'Aleo post from Saturday.
QBO easterly argues for cold periods. Key levels are 30-45mb.
We will see this 'boot' of cold this winter. Many analogs had the cold early, others later when the stratosphere warms.
Then we could see major snow events that make the list. The October bomb could be a model then. The fall storms are often 'tells'.
So don't fret and don't whine just get your cold forecast where I get mine! And I'll be back on Christmas Day!
QBO easterly argues for cold periods. Key levels are 30-45mb.
We will see this 'boot' of cold this winter. Many analogs had the cold early, others later when the stratosphere warms.
Then we could see major snow events that make the list. The October bomb could be a model then. The fall storms are often 'tells'.
So don't fret and don't whine just get your cold forecast where I get mine! And I'll be back on Christmas Day!
I think we’ve been waiting on the “boot” theory, about as long as we’ve been waiting on the bathtub ? to slosh?! Maybe throw our boots into the bathtub, to make it slosh?????Here's just a little of Joe D'Aleo post from Saturday.
QBO easterly argues for cold periods. Key levels are 30-45mb.
We will see this 'boot' of cold this winter. Many analogs had the cold early, others later when the stratosphere warms.
Then we could see major snow events that make the list. The October bomb could be a model then. The fall storms are often 'tells'.
So don't fret and don't whine just get your cold forecast where I get mine! And I'll be back on Christmas Day!
Whatever it takes to keep us looking for cold and winter storms, right?
??
Merry Torchmas 
? ⛱
In before the toastinas wake up.
? ⛱ In before the toastinas wake up.
Golf, fishing, banana hammock sun bathing, tennis, beach weather, pre emergent applying, grass cutting, scuba diving, snorkeling,walking, running, picnic, shades of winter 11-12, weather! ?
It's JUST right after this time frame we turn it around... Remember! lol. But that is a ugly looking map, A lot of cold to the NW that should push, slosh, or jump to the SE in time.
By the time we realize they are pulling the wool over our eyes, their pockets will be fat, and he will be telling everybody how cold 22-23 winter will be!??????Whatever it takes to keep us looking for cold and winter storms, right?
I need to hear SER flex from Fro, before I can believe it!?
Nice shift north on the 06z EPS for rain
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Joe Ba has been in denial of the forthcoming warm pattern for quite some time (as usual). Writing was on the wall when the models started to realize early this past week a big WP MJO event was coming. Most models are usually too fast/progressive and damped (too weak) w/ the MJO, esp anytime an event isn't already ongoing (predictability is lower), contributing to the warming trend we've seen the last several days on the whole. Ironically, although La Ninas tend to be more favorable to early season cold, if we had the same MJO event during a neutral or NINO ENSO, we'd flip out of this crap pattern much sooner.
3 days ago: " These are quite interesting. If it is true that the MJO is not going back into Phase 6, then the cold shot in Days 6-10, while followed by modest warming, may be similar to mid-December 1995. The warming then did occur but not as much as the current 10-day forecast implications of December 11-20"
6 days ago: "The implication here is that after a move into Phase 6 we will head into Phases 7 & 8. The move into Phase 6 will be short enough so that the full-scale warm response may not take place. However, the Euro has a different look. The new ECMWF raw forecast is now more into Phase 7: The new bias-correction is locked in Phase 6 through December 12: This says big-time warmth is going to be coming, and I don't know how it would be able to stay out. However, that doesn't mean it will happen"
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
10km MPAS is being weenie.
