Pattern December to Remember

[NorthDFWwx]

Made it to 80°F today at DFW.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

happy hour isn’t so happy lol, on to the 00z runs

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

happy hour isn’t so happy lol, on to the 00z runs View attachment 98109View attachment 98108

IMO that makes the most sense in this pattern. I do think the cold air will funnel east into January. December was never going to be cold.

 

[pcbjr]

Good Lord ...

earth :: a global map of wind, weather, and ocean conditions

See current wind, weather, ocean, and pollution conditions, as forecast by supercomputers, on an interactive animated map. Updated every three hours.

earth.nullschool.net

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lol gfs giving us a shallow Aleutian ridge again that would suck, what’s bothering me a little bit is that popping up on models time to time

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Meanwhile ?

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Meanwhile ?View attachment 98116View attachment 98117

Why do they never agree witch each other? I don’t understand lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Why do they never agree witch each other? I don’t understand lol

Normally the GFS/gefs often have issues agreeing with each other. The euro/Eps often agree more

 

[Myfrotho704_]

More -NAO this run

 

[Philstorm91]

Tropical Tidbits is still stuck on hr 138 of the 18z GFS. But from what others here have indicated, there's not much missed.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Six Mile Wx]

This is only a month or so away! Anyone have more specifics on the timing?

U.S. weather modeling computers to get $505M upgrade, will triple speed

Numerous upgrades are scheduled for NOAA's weather forecasting models

www.mlive.com

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If there’s one thing I noticed that’s trending positively over the last 2-3 days, is that we’re finally starting to trend to a solid west based -NAO and not the east based one we was seeing a few days ago, watch for adjustments with the 50/50 low/SE can vortex with the trend to one further SW

 

[Tarheel1]

IMO that makes the most sense in this pattern. I do think the cold air will funnel east into January. December was never going to be cold.

Could you say this line 12,000 more times?? We didn’t get it the first 10,000!

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

This is only a month or so away! Anyone have more specifics on the timing?

U.S. weather modeling computers to get $505M upgrade, will triple speed

Numerous upgrades are scheduled for NOAA's weather forecasting models

www.mlive.com

Getting to bed before 11 pm and seeing the complete 00z GFS run during the winter will be nice!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I like this a lot

 

[Mr. Golf]

Hey can you or @NickyBGuarantee post what the 12z CFS shows I can’t seem to pull it up on my computer

I like this a lot View attachment 98125

Is that a split or displacement? Or is it just stretching? Not as good as yall with those type situations lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s getting real close on the 18z EC to something way better pattern wise, almost a complete rex block with some weak +PNA trying to develop

 

[Myfrotho704_]

What we need basically

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I like where this is going

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[SD]

View attachment 98136

Icon was just about the perfect H5 track. No cold to be found

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Icon was just about the perfect H5 track. No cold to be found

Seems like the last few years at pattern changes we get a favorable look with no cold

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

The Gfs said the ridge is Going fast before and latest

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s close

 

[Tarheel1]

Feliz Navidad

 

[StormWatch]

That’s close View attachment 98139View attachment 98140

Something may sneak out of that maybe...
Still too far out though, if anything it would likely be in the form of freezing rain/sleet because of mid level ridging. Temps. at 850mb probably wouldn't be cold enough for snowfall - but hey there's enough time for trends for this feature if it ends up consistently showing on future runs.

 

[GaWx]

0Z GEFS is best run in quite awhile both in regard to the run overall and how it looks late.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

0Z GEFS is best run in quite awhile both in regard to the run overall and how it looks late.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Is it just me or it looks like the eps came in cooler on 00z run?

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Christmas frost

 

[Deleted member 1449]

I don't see much to be enthused about the rest of December. Whatever blocking we get in the Atlantic will be offset by the Pacific. The MJO is in no hurry and may go in the wrong direction for the time being. The best news I can find right now is it *might* be seasonably cool on Christmas for my backyard.

 

[Tarheel1]

6z GFS was a banger!

 

[packfan98]

 

[BullCityWx]

Euro control had a white christmas for 40N in NC

 

[NCSNOW]

Getting a feeling finding the Cold may not be our Main Problem this year. It's the other ingredient. 6z GFS says Ill see .25 qpf over the next 15 days. Thankfully its the GFS and wrong as many times as is correct. Espeacilly LR.

 

[tennessee storm]

Until euro weeklies. Euro products start picking up on this. Not putting faith into it

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Love to see it

 

[SNOWMANN]

Getting a feeling finding the Cold may not be our Main Problem this year. It's the other ingredient. 6z GFS says Ill see .25 qpf over the next 15 days. Thankfully its the GFS and wrong as many times as is correct. Espeacilly LR.

I agree we'll get the cold eventually the question is the precipitation going to be there.

 

[RBR71]

Getting a feeling finding the Cold may not be our Main Problem this year. It's the other ingredient. 6z GFS says Ill see .25 qpf over the next 15 days. Thankfully its the GFS and wrong as many times as is correct. Espeacilly LR.

Yep and long term implication could be problematic, already is to some degree