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Pattern December to Remember

metwannabe said:
Yep and long term implication could be problematic, already is to some degree

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I find this hard to believe, my yard is a sponge.
 
bigstick10 said:
I find this hard to believe, my yard is a sponge.
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Ok. I mean this has really been discussed plenty of times, the map is more or less broad brushing areas based off many factors not just recent rainfall. In the SE when so much rain is convective you will certainly have spots with more and other's with less, the map isn't going to pin down each spot like that. Overall, it's just catching up with the actual drought up here, rivers, lakes, creeks, ponds are low
 
January is in sight! Annnnnnnd.........it's the same as December. ? Seriously persistent Aleutian ridge pattern. Maybe a result of the MJO not moving forward. Really need to have the MJO move and stop messing around in 7 (EPS is worse). Don't think we see much real change in the pattern until tropical forcing switches things up.

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SnowNiner said:
January is in sight! Annnnnnnd.........it's the same as December. ? Seriously persistent Aleutian ridge pattern. Maybe a result of the MJO not moving forward. Really need to have the MJO move and stop messing around in 7 (EPS is worse). Don't think we see much real change in the pattern until tropical forcing switches things up.

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Phase 7 mjo is decent in jan if I’m not mistaken
 
This is what I meant by the MJO possibly moving in the wrong direction in the short term. And can we really say that MJO phase 7 is a lock for cold in January?

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I annotated the GDSM Relative Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) plots to show everyone what I'm thinking/seeing when I look at one of these. The footprint of this past November's Maritime Continent MJO is still lingering in the mid-latitudes in the form of -U/-AAM (easterly zonal wind anomalies). The westerly momentum build-up from the ongoing WP MJO event looks like it's poised to send some of this -AAM (cool colors) sitting around 30-40N, and westerly momentum in the tropics poleward as we enter January. That would create a very favorable AAM distribution for persistent/strong high-latitude blocking in January.

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Poimen said:
This is what I meant by the MJO possibly moving in the wrong direction in the short term. And can we really say that MJO phase 7 is a lock for cold in January?

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If you’ve been seeing some of the posts Webb puts out phase 7 in December but especially January means a bump up in our chances of a winter storm in the SE .. I’ll take my chances there
 
1639672208239.pngCouple things. The track of this is upper level low is about spot on for wintery weather in the Carolinas. Problem is we need more ridging over the lakes and need the 50/50 to trend stronger and slow down. Luckily the GFS is notoriously bad at predicting CAD but this is a close look.
 
packfan98 said:
Seems to be an interesting timeframe on several runs. A piece of energy is able to scoot underneath.
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This is a reason I’m watching Christmas Day-few days after with how chaotic models have been. we could easily trend to sneaking some energy thru, and there’s gonna be a ton of confluence
 
snowvol said:
Oh but last year didn’t you say a -pna was good for us. You said you would rather have a negative pna
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snowvol said:
Oh but last year didn’t you say a -pna was good for us. You said you would rather have a negative pna than a positive.
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Good memory u have. Yes . Keeps pattern being to far suppressed for one in our area . But your talking about cold Frigid weather correct? Because positive pna with a strong negative nao ao both going give the gulf coast your winter storms promise .
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is a reason I’m watching Christmas Day-few days after with how chaotic models have been. we could easily trend to sneaking some energy thru, and there’s gonna be a ton of confluence
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Agreed. That’s the type of set up where you could see something kinda pop up only 2-3 days out.
 
tennessee storm said:
Good memory u have. Yes . Keeps pattern being to far suppressed for one in our area . But your talking about cold Frigid weather correct? Because positive pna with a strong negative nao ao both going give the gulf coast your winter storms promise .
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No not too cold don’t want dry suppressed, I want winter weather with enough sustained cold to keep it around for a 2-3 days at least. Any I think we may pop a positive pna at some point. I live in north middle tn. I don’t have to have pipe bust cold.
 
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