LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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2017-2023 Supporter
FWIW Euro gave me all snow on the 0z as well. Maybe it’s the gfs that’s in the wrong now. We can pray.
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Pattern December to Remember
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That modeled cold late in the 6Z GFS run is the coldest on the planet then and is hinted at by all of the ensemble means for around that time. At the very least, our primary source region of NW Canada is then frigid with sub -40F in spots. Here’s a global perspective and it is then moving SE
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There was something we used to say all of last year and even in the beginning of this year but I can’t quite remember.. something about never underestimating CAD .. i dont know could Be anything ..
I wouldn’t get hopes up the 06z euro/EPS took a decent step north for the system, gonna be close for @LukeBarrette tho
tennessee storm
Member
Again. That’s 6z run way out fantasy …
This would be supportive of temps well into the 80s this Friday, if it verified...
Don’t we want rain?
Lol a few more ticks south and I-40 would have been in business for snowflakes, but yes this is good for rain with the trend north
Even the OP Euro was pretty darn close to going crazy with the 588dm ridge...
Gonna turn that into a central US death ridge lol
Roxboro will always get theirs
Indeed. I’m weenieing out no doubt. But this is fantasizing supported by the last few ensemble means fwiw:
6Z GEFS 384 has coldest on planet in W Canada and it is large, too:
Even the 0Z EPS has it sticking out like a frost bitten thumb at its end, 30 hours earlier:
It is all about the primary source region for our coldest airmasses getting frigid.
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What’s funny is the models are pointing at this death ridge eventually retrograding up towards Greenland and eventually our Greenland block shows up in force.. probably won’t be until the last week of December or so
Extreme warmth sometimes precedes extreme cold. I love to follow extremes on both sides even though I strongly prefer the cold. This month has a chance to be one of the warmest Decembers on record. Will be fun to follow. This would also set up the US for the chance for one of the coldest shifts on record from one month to the next. This could potentially set us up for a near normal winter in which the mean hides the reality of ridiculous extremes on both ends.
Going to be some big time CADS in our future if we have this level of cold to play with 
This 0Z CFS is actually a much warmer run for the US than the 18Z, which is what I posted last night. Looking forward to see what the 6Z shows as they jump like crazy from one run to the next. Yes, I’m an extreme weenie this morning. It must have been from my bran flakes.
As long as it happens the same way November 2021 did, then whatever.
I actually enjoy having power and heat at my place.
smast16
Member
This says that fall storms are often tells, well I hate to break it to ya, but there was a very definite and noticeable lack of fall storms.Here's just a little of Joe D'Aleo post from Saturday.
QBO easterly argues for cold periods. Key levels are 30-45mb.
We will see this 'boot' of cold this winter. Many analogs had the cold early, others later when the stratosphere warms.
Then we could see major snow events that make the list. The October bomb could be a model then. The fall storms are often 'tells'.
So don't fret and don't whine just get your cold forecast where I get mine! And I'll be back on Christmas Day!