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Pattern December to Remember

snowvol said:
2-3 good snows and a good solid 10 days to 2 full weeks on winter weather will make most folks in my region happy. And that includes me.
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This. Give me 2 snows of 2-4 inches mixed in with multiple flurry and dustings in a season and Im a happy camper. I’m just grateful to live far enough north that regardless I get to see snow falling every year and usually get at least 2 inches of snow a season. 2016 / 2017 was the one year since 2006 that I didn’t even manage a dusting. I got 2-3 light flurries events and it was the worst winter ever.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
How was the GEFS?
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The same as it has been to be honest. Had a little more 50/50 -nao signature vs 6z but was a little deeper with the wc trough at the same time. Later in the run it started hinting at the pac trough getting closer to the coast with the okhotsk low moving into the aleutians. Not much change tbh vs 6z though.

Looking at the 12z op, it was close to the mean with the larger players
 
Oh wow, a triple ridge bridge!

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_10.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Agreed, looks fine as is. But migrate the Greenland block any more poleward and the Aleutian ridge anymore westward, and you open the door for a big GOA low and the SE ridge to pop back up.
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I'm not reading that deep into a day 9-10 operational run. In general, what I see is fine and realistic overall. A ridge bridge is being tossed around on NWP and if one were to occur, predictability goes right down the toilet as would the stratospheric polar vortex. I don't see the -NAO disappearing for any extended length of time between now and at least mid-January or so
 
Rain Cold said:
Agreed, looks fine as is. But migrate the Greenland block any more poleward and the Aleutian ridge anymore westward, and you open the door for a big GOA low and the SE ridge to pop back up.
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Me thinks if the Euro went to 384 like the gfs we would see the cold spilling out nationwide or at least some realignment in the pacific setting up a better pattern for us. But yeah at face value that would at least be a low amp SER heading into NYE but even then you'd have to question if the Euro is handling the pattern under the blocking properly
 
SD said:
Me thinks if the Euro went to 384 like the gfs we would see the cold spilling out nationwide or at least some realignment in the pacific setting up a better pattern for us. But yeah at face value that would at least be a low amp SER heading into NYE but even then you'd have to question if the Euro is handling the pattern under the blocking properly
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The lead-up to that inside day 6-7 is more interesting to me because it's closer to verification but also we've been trending that way on the ensembles too. It's also consistent w/ the GWO evolution the last several weeks and where I think we're headed. I'd still be happy if the ECMWF panned out like that exactly because the long-term effects would be stronger/longer-lasting -NAO and -AO through the balance of January.
 
SD said:
Honestly my first ? mark with the euro is hereView attachment 98173

How much interaction is there between the lobe over srn Canada and the energy crossing the US? More interaction likely ends up colder
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And with strong blocking taking shape over top that seems plausible
 
There's a lot of over the top blocking on the EPS and personally I think it is moving too slow with moving the tough east. The slow progression of the MJO maybe a reason for this. The -NAO is really nice as well which makes me think we would naturally have lower heights along the east coast.
 
SD said:
There are a lot of very warm/cold members buried in the eps but the mean looks like it'll end up just on the warm side of normal through most of the run. It'll be interesting to see how this shakes out as we move forward in time and see more agreement
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Just as an example here is Christmas dayecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-t2m_c_anom_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-0433600.png
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-t2m_c_anom_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-0433600 (1).png
 
metwannabe said:
Just a little volatility. So those individual members showing AN anomalies, are they showing less blocking over the top? Borderline wishcasting I know but I'd lean more on the cool side if the blocking is there
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Not sure to be honest since wxbell doesn't individual h5 for the members. My assumption from just looking at how the temp anomalies move they are dumping in the west more than anything.
 
Poimen said:
You can have all the -NAO you want, but until that trough changes in the Pacific/P NW there's not much hope for us.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_nhem_11.png
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Yep. That's what I was getting at earlier. I mean it's a 10 day map. So who knows.. And it IS better than the bright orange colors we were seeing over our area a few days ago. But you can't have the Greenland ridge rotate poleward and the EPO ridge retrograde westward. The response will inevitably be for heights to rise in the SE. That said, nothing is showing we have to go in that particular direction. Lots of possibilities exist. Maybe a rex block sets up out west. That would be good. There's plenty of cold to tap on our side of the globe. That's also really good.
 
Poimen said:
You can have all the -NAO you want, but until that trough changes in the Pacific/P NW there's not much hope for us.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_nhem_11.png
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Patiently waiting for the GLAAD, -QBO, AAM, MJO, Jet Retraction, etc, or SOMETHING to take affect and kick that thing out of dodge! ???. So tired of seeing it. I'm sure when we do get an eastern trough, it'll be as transient as they come.
 
Today’s Euro Weeklies are warmer than Monday’s for the January portion averaged out in the E US though they’re not as warm as the run from one week ago. Of course, we won’t hear as much about this run from the mets on Twitter that were excited about Monday’s colder run.
 
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