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Pattern December to Remember

Webberweather53 said:
I think the GEFS has the right idea, but it's likely much too progressive w/ handing off the MJO into the W Hem which speeds up the pattern change vs what it probably would/should be. I think we probably wait until at least the last week of December/after Christmas for significant & consistent changes for the better.
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Always too progressive…im January 15th or after…minimum.
 
While the C/E US remain mild, the extreme cold/coldest anomalies on the planet continues to show in our primary source region of W Canada at the end about every ensemble run and is poised to plunge down into the US once the MJO gives its ok:

12Z EPS
67AC7564-A9F3-4BD8-A775-539D6549D576.png

#UpTheAnteForColdLateMonth
 
GaWx said:
The extreme cold/coldest anomalies on the planet continues to show in our primary source region of W Canada at the end about every ensemble run and is poised to plunge down into the US once the MJO gives its ok:

12Z EPS
View attachment 96951
Click to expand...
Interesting how there are almost no negative heights at all in Eurasia. We have seen many winters before in the last 10 years where North America had none of the blues, and Russia and Europe had all of it. I guess that is the one good thing we have going for us, so when it does arrive it will be plenty cold.
 
Lagged MJO phase composite evolution and NWP suggest the way we break out of this pattern is via -NAO. You can see the precursor signs of it setting up over Scandinavia and northern Africa + Mediterranean on the EPS & GEFS and slow moving MJOs like this one are more likely to trigger -NAOs barring it actually moves into the W hem. Probably still no less than a week, maybe two from this point in the model from a legit favorable pattern change, but that's generally consistent w/ what I've been thinking for the last week or so timing-wise.


Also we'll have to keep an eye on that vortex over NE Siberia (+WPO), if that extends eastward more towards the Aleutians, it could set off a -EPO in the late portion of the month &/or early January.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-0001600.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lagged MJO phase composite evolution and NWP suggest the way we break out of this pattern is via -NAO. You can see the precursor signs of it setting up over Scandinavia and northern Africa + Mediterranean on the EPS & GEFS and slow moving MJOs like this one are more likely to trigger -NAOs barring it actually moves into the W hem. Probably still no less than a week, maybe two from this point in the model from a legit favorable pattern change, but that's generally consistent w/ what I've been thinking for the last week or so timing-wise.


Also we'll have to keep an eye on that vortex over NE Siberia (+WPO), if that extends eastward more towards the Aleutians, it could set off a -EPO in the late portion of the month &/or early January.

View attachment 96950
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Well at least the cold will be closer, in the western/central US vs Canada, lol #babysteps
 
Stormdoc said:
Interesting how there are almost no negative heights at all in Eurasia. We have seen many winters before in the last 10 years where North America had none of the blues, and Russia and Europe had all of it. I guess that is the one good thing we have going for us, so when it does arrive it will be plenty cold.
Click to expand...

Those are 2 meter temps rather than heights but your point is spot on with by far the largest area and most intense cold right in our primary source region waiting for the MJO to get its ass over to the left side.
 
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