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Pattern December to Remember

Webberweather53 said:
I hate to break it to ya but none of the pieces are there on the 306 hr gfs op forecast. You getting excited over that is weenie
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Like I said in the comment you didn’t read I’m not excited but one could like this look over what we have now if you believed anything past 300 hours which no one should ??E5B7274B-A912-4C63-97A6-037E135CCB0A.jpeg82B3D650-F836-497C-95CE-4DE95B665ABE.jpeg
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol some of these GEFS members with 0C 1000mb isotherm well into central Canada

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None of them have the 850 line making to the I-40 corrrdior areas anywhere in the US with most staying north of the I-70 and even I-80 corridor areas. Crazy for this time of the year. This pattern is a true defintion of a torch.
 
Stephenb888 said:
I love how some of you poke fun at those who say anything about seeing cold on the models weeks away, but are the same ones who see heat on the long range models and say winter is done. Makes sense.
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Well with the MJO being in phase 6( even stronger in that phase than models have predictied),I doubt it's going to get cold in the SE (outside of maybe 1-2 day cool shots) atleast around Christmas day or so.Maybe even later. No one is saying winter is over. People are simply that it's going a lot to flip this pattern around. Accroding to the GEFS in the longer range,the 850 maybe above 0 all way to basically the US/Canadian border. As people have already,the first signs ofa true patterns change, look cold being build up in the Northern plains/Rocky Mountain states,then expand to midwest/Great Lake states/the NE, than hopefully at some point the SE.
 
Stephenb888 said:
I love how some of you poke fun at those who say anything about seeing cold on the models weeks away, but are the same ones who see heat on the long range models and say winter is done. Makes sense.
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kinda happens when the subseasonal pattern/ tropical forcing and responding teles all support warmth for most of dec
 
Stephenb888 said:
I love how some of you poke fun at those who say anything about seeing cold on the models weeks away, but are the same ones who see heat on the long range models and say winter is done. Makes sense.
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Probably mostly because for years long range cold hasn't verified and long range warmth does. So your odds of being correct and looking like a genius are higher if you lock on to warm models.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Probably mostly because for years long range cold hasn't verified and long range warmth does. So your odds of being correct and looking like a genius are higher if you lock on to warm models.
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This. I use to bite on these websites saying cold winter back in the late 2010s and I’ve learned my lesson, when you go warm, your most likely gonna be right
 
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