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Pattern December to Remember

Webberweather53 said:
Ironically the last white Christmas in places like Columbia, SC up thru southwestern Piedmont (SE of Charlotte) was in fact 1935 because of this storm on the 22nd and 23rd.


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What exactly qualifies as a White Christmas. I know I’ve seen your map of the 2010 storm and honestly it looks a bit off. Even though the snow didn’t start at my house until about 8pm Christmas night, the ground was covered with between .25-.50” by midnight… I remember letting my kids go out play in it around 11pm just so they could say they had played in the snow on Christmas. Also, you don’t have and accumulations for the 25th in Charlotte or Concord…my parents house, which is just a mile from the Speedway, had 1” by midnight and CLT officially has .4” listed in their records for that day. I know the heaviest snow didn’t get going for CLT metro and SE until 2-4am, but a lot of areas did in fact have the ground solidly covered before midnight.
 
Griteaters post on Twitter was very informative. He is basing that on an orbit of mjo from 7 to 8 to 1 I'm assuming. January being cold would go against the euro seasonal, which is a blowtorch. If the nao becomes west based, we would be in better shape imo. East based wont do us any good imo. I still believe the niña is east based with coldest anomalies off coast of Peru and a -qbo how that plays into everything. Either webber or griteater mentioned how the -qbo can sometimes propagate the mjo further along than one would see it go.
 
Chazwin said:
What exactly qualifies as a White Christmas. I know I’ve seen your map of the 2010 storm and honestly it looks a bit off. Even though the snow didn’t start at my house until about 8pm Christmas night, the ground was covered with between .25-.50” by midnight… I remember letting my kids go out play in it around 11pm just so they could say they had played in the snow on Christmas. Also, you don’t have and accumulations for the 25th in Charlotte or Concord…my parents house, which is just a mile from the Speedway, had 1” by midnight and CLT officially has .4” listed in their records for that day. I know the heaviest snow didn’t get going for CLT metro and SE until 2-4am, but a lot of areas did in fact have the ground solidly covered before midnight.
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At least 1” of snow on the ground or having fallen on Dec 25 counts as a white Christmas
 
Not far off from a suprise event here Saturday 5DBC7308-983F-4766-8DC3-8B75E7EAA250.png
 
0Z GEFS looks better already before day 10. Let’s see if it holds through the rest of the run.

The -NAO looks weaker on this run, however. You can tell also because Europe isn’t as cold.
 
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Some big dogs in the weather community taking notice of tomorrow’s winds and storms Up here! ??8E6ADB07-F4BD-4EE7-AE4E-F1FC5A94D626.png0AA2964B-60EF-4B11-BDB8-F034B65A908A.png
 
06z GEFS coming in much cooler for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day for the SE.

r2r
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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NorthDFWwx said:
It's several days out and people are still reeling from last night, but we'll have to keep an eye out on the system this upcoming Wednesday/Thursday too for more severe weather.

It's a similar setup, just a bit further NW.
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Called it:

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At least this time around, the heightened threat level is being a lot more hyped earlier. Perhaps this will convince more people to be more dilligent about monitoring the weather conditions this evening.
 
2 things about the current pattern that are haunting in the back of my mind:
  • Canada has plenty of cold right now and for the forseeable future. However, that doesn't mean it will always be that way. I remember a time in the past where we finally got the cold coming from Canada, but were left saying "if we just had the cold up there that we had a couple of weeks ago......". So, saying that when the pattern "flips" in January we'll finally get all of that really cold air in Canada to come down gives me reason to pause.
  • I also remember a winter maybe 10-15 years ago where the pacific just roared west to east across the country and basically cut off any substantial cold air making it much further south than midway in the country. What we have now reminds me alot of that, only things are shifted a bit north at the current time. Hofefully this isn't a repeat.
Hoping for some ice and snow on the horizon before too much longer. Very rarely have I made it all the way to Jan 1 without a flake or sleet pellet.
TW
 
Is it unusual for the CFS to agree with most long range models? Particularly in the mid January time frame? I have read that many discredit such a forecast model.
 
Euro control is bonkers widespread 30s 40s on Christmas day, a light snow event for nc on the 26th-27th, by the end of the run it has a pv lobe in the lakes, and most days for the region near and after Christmas are well BN. Likely way too cold but fun to see
 
SD said:
Euro control is bonkers widespread 30s 40s on Christmas day, a light snow event for nc on the 26th-27th, by the end of the run it has a pv lobe in the lakes, and most days for the region near and after Christmas are well BN. Likely way too cold but fun to see
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Would love to see that when I come back to NC for Christmas.
 
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