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Pattern December to Remember

After looking through 144 years of December data, there hasn't been a single December where KATL didn't get below freezing. So that looks to be broken this month. Here are some of the warmer Decembers I found.

2015: 57.6F
1889: 57.2F
1956: 54.3F
1984: 53.7F
1971: 52.3F

2021: 54.4
 
Sensible weather on Christmas Day still up in the air for NC-SC piedmont + NE GA and pts north. Ensemble mean verbatim is warm, but CAD could very easily show up in the next few days during this time frame

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J.C. said:
After looking through 144 years of December data, there hasn't been a single December where KATL didn't get below freezing. So that looks to be broken this month. Here are some of the warmer Decembers I found.

2015: 57.6F
1889: 57.2F
1956: 54.3F
1984: 53.7F
1971: 52.3F

2021: 54.4
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That 1889 reading is very high considering that the other temps are partly if not greatly influenced by the UHI effect. I wonder where they took the weather readings in 1889?

I hit 32 this morning. Probably have been below freezing three times this month. We need to move the weather station away from the international airport.
 
weatherfide said:
That 1889 reading is very high considering that the other temps are partly if not greatly influenced by the UHI effect. I wonder where they took the weather readings in 1889?

I hit 32 this morning. Probably have been below freezing three times this month. We need to move the weather station away from the international airport.
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We have a fancy weather station about 1hr north. It’s called TWC. Seems like a got spot to me. ?‍♂️.
 
Pretty good model agreement so far between the 12z GFS and Euro, however the 12z Euro is colder with the CAD vs. the GFS. It's looking like it's going to be another good Euro run, fingers crossed!
 
weatherfide said:
That 1889 reading is very high considering that the other temps are partly if not greatly influenced by the UHI effect. I wonder where they took the weather readings in 1889?

I hit 32 this morning. Probably have been below freezing three times this month. We need to move the weather station away from the international airport.
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Quite honestly, DeKalb Peachtree airport is in just as much of an urban environment, and they have completely different low outputs. Five runways, soon to be six, doesn't seem very conducive to accurate night time low temperatures to me. Here is the data to compare so far this month. For reference:

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PDK
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KATL
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So PDK is only 17 miles NE as the crow flies, 50' higher in elevation, and yet so far this month the are almost a full degree colder for the average high, and a whopping 4 degrees colder for the average low. Anyone who believes that is lined up to buy oceanfront property in Kansas. It needs to be addressed.
 

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weatherfide said:
That 1889 reading is very high considering that the other temps are partly if not greatly influenced by the UHI effect. I wonder where they took the weather readings in 1889?

I hit 32 this morning. Probably have been below freezing three times this month. We need to move the weather station away from the international airport.
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I live less than 30 miles from ATL. We have been in the 20's twice and at 32 or below at least 3 other times. Measuring area temps by using ATL is like keeping your thermometer in the garage and then being surprised when it is colder outside. ATL temps do not represent temps just a few mile beyond the city.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Interesting because the ensemble mean has shifted warmer around Christmas, and as you pointed out yesterday, most of the gefs members that were warm around the holiday looked cooler afterwards. Maybe we’re seeing that cluster of members win out?
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This is the first time in a while I've seen more weight on the eastern trough than the westgfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-0822400 (1).png
Obviously very late in the run but nice to see.
With that the mean is cold almost nation widegfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-t2m_f_anom-0822400.png
 
SD said:
This is the first time in a while I've seen more weight on the eastern trough than the westView attachment 97948
Obviously very late in the run but nice to see.
With that the mean is cold almost nation wideView attachment 97949
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Yeah the -NAO looks like it's becoming stronger than the Aleutian ridge. Good trends. Those are the positive signs I look for.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Yeah the -NAO looks like it's becoming stronger than the Aleutian ridge. Good trends. Those are the positive signs I look for.
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It's an interesting look on the euro with the really favorable nao but the less than favorable pacific. It would probably take time for us to really work in any cool to cold air probably not behind the Christmas eve system, and likely not behind the next but all in all it's far better than 588 dm heights over the region
 
SD said:
It's an interesting look on the euro with the really favorable nao but the less than favorable pacific. It would probably take time for us to really work in any cool to cold air probably not behind the Christmas eve system, and likely not behind the next but all in all it's far better than 588 dm heights over the region
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Sounds like last winter all over again. Solid -NAO but horrible pacific
 
SD said:
It's an interesting look on the euro with the really favorable nao but the less than favorable pacific. It would probably take time for us to really work in any cool to cold air probably not behind the Christmas eve system, and likely not behind the next but all in all it's far better than 588 dm heights over the region
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Yeah I've been thinking maybe the last couple days of the month into the 1st week of January all along. If that's going to happen we should start seeing it show up at the end of modeling consistently over the next few days. I never was big on a before or just after Christmas flip.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Yeah I've been thinking maybe the last couple days of the month into the 1st week of January all along. If that's going to happen we should start seeing it show up at the end of modeling consistently over the next few days. I never was big on a before or just after Christmas flip.
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Weren’t you saying the end of January?
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
Yeah I've been thinking maybe the last couple days of the month into the 1st week of January all along. If that's going to happen we should start seeing it show up at the end of modeling consistently over the next few days. I never was big on a before or just after Christmas flip.
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I was hopeful that we could muddy up the pattern enough that we landed cool to cold in Christmas day even with the overall background of warm but that's looking less likely unless we catch a break. Certainly like where the 2nd half of the 12z gefs and 0z eps went
 
SD said:
I was hopeful that we could muddy up the pattern enough that we landed cool to cold in Christmas day even with the overall background of warm but that's looking less likely unless we catch a break. Certainly like where the 2nd half of the 12z gefs and 0z eps went
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-NAO becoming more and more prominent on each successive model run, I'll take my chances with that.
 
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