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Pattern December to Remember

Cary_Snow95 said:
GEFS continues to warm post Christmas
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Tarheel1 said:
Wha whaaaaaaaaaaaaaa??
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I'd lean more seasonable-seasonably warm than torch when this is what you're given at 500mb. CAD events (which aren't resolved well by NWP this far out) are going to abruptly interrupt periods of warmth. Definitely a warm look for the southern plains and southern MS Valley, but it's tricky if you're in the Carolinas and pts north along the East Coast.

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Ollie Williams said:
Isn’t this a totally different storm from what you were predicting? There’s too much disagreement between the models to get excited IMO; I’d be shocked if the EPS agreed.
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No, it's the same storm, it develops on the end of a stalled front, but the low becomes a stand-alone low, not remaining a frontal system.
 
At least we have rain to track, and some wintry for favored areas. Outside of that, it has been boring, so looking forward to it. If the models depict a different solution, or we simply lose the storm, my man Brick will be in here to elaborate on how this happens with further explanation for you folks. In the meantime....
 
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Y’all this I could trend this to a little onset snow here in Roanoke??? It’s close and we got a lot of time to work with it.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is really Gonna try to sneak up on us ? View attachment 97906
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If you're in the CAD areas of the piedmont and upstate (getting there for NE GA) and you like ice, this is something you absolutely want to see. CAD areas quickly trending colder with 6 days left for continued correction. Keep a -NAO and a 50/50 low and you're almost guaranteed to see trends like these to show up in the medium range. The progression of the -NAO, 50/50 low, and coupled with a generally -EPO and -PNA and I think the CAD areas are inline to get a winter storm of some sort between the end of December through mid January. Especially since some of the coldest air in the northern hemisphere has been sitting in Canada for the last month or 2.
 
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