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Pattern December to Remember

NickyBGuarantee said:
Even though this is extended you have to expect we eventually make it to phase 8 and at what better time than early January we end up getting there
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We may never officially reach phase 8, even if we don’t that really doesn’t matter imo. Phase 7 is just as good if not even better in January (& best overall). Slow moving MJO events like this one have a tendency to produce a strong -NAO when we reach phase 7 & 8 in January. You can see a slight hint of that on the extended GEFS and the +SCAND showing up in the medium to long range is also one of the most classic circulation precursors to -NAO. I stand by what I’ve been posting the last few days, the flip to a potentially legit pattern is delayed probably until very late Dec or early January.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We may never officially reach phase 8, even if we don’t that really doesn’t matter imo. Phase 7 is just as good if not even better in January (& best overall). Slow moving MJO events like this one have a tendency to produce a strong -NAO when we reach phase 7 & 8 in January. You can see a slight hint of that on the extended GEFS and the +SCAND showing up in the medium to long range is also one of the most classic circulation precursors to -NAO. I stand by what I’ve been posting the last few days, the flip to a potentially legit pattern is delayed probably until very late Dec or early January.
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We’ll probably have a decent idea on when this pattern flip may occur later this coming week as our West Pac MJO event continues to amplify, but I think many are jumping the gun. Looks like rough sledding overall to me (no pun intended) until at least the Christmas holiday or so in the SE US. Winter probably gets going much earlier to our NW over the Midwest and Rockies
 
Webberweather53 said:
We’ll probably have a decent idea on when this pattern flip may occur later this coming week as our West Pac MJO event continues to amplify, but I think many are jumping the gun. Looks like rough sledding overall to me (no pun intended) until at least the Christmas holiday or so in the SE US. Winter probably gets going much earlier to our NW over the Midwest and Rockies
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Once upon a time we would have been stoked for a potential late Dec/early Jan flip, but now there’s trepidation due to being burned so many times. I’m trying to find some chill and remember this could be just fine timing.
 
Taking a look at the current 10mb layer (30km) You can see that the stratospheric PV is energetic, which is good because this shows that the upper PV is strong and probably still gaining momentum. Looking over the Bearing Sea/far Northern Pacific ocean there is clockwise rotation of winds in the upper stratosphere (blocking at 10mb over that region) This feature would help elongate the upper PV, however it wouldn't cause the PV to disrupt unless features come into place over the NAO region as well as over the Arctic Ocean such as further ascending upward motion of air. I don't think we'll see a complete main PV disruption anytime soon - however I do think we'll see mesoscale PVs coming down into the mid-latitudes at times as lower geopotential heights extend down southeastward at 10mb. The upper stratospheric blocking over the area mentioned looks to be persistent in the weeks to come, and I have suggested that a stationary high may get locked into place north of Europe over the Arctic ocean, if so, upward motion of warm air could eventually propagate into the upper stratosphere over portion of the Arctic Ocean, causing the PV to become further elongated. Also, the upper blocking over the Bearing Sea would help developing a trough over the EPO region (AK/Gulf of AK) in the lower stratosphere. At this time, I think it's best we may see extended periods of below normal temperatures later this month, but lower stratospheric blocking is what's going to cause frustration within the forecast. Challenging forecasting!

(Image: Current wind circulation at 10mb ~ 30km, I'll be keeping eyes on this!)
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