Icon keeps the wedge around through Saturday really curious to see if we can lock it in that long.
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Oh my 
This look at H5 is just straight up deflating 
Source region cooling off nicely! ?
We need whatever is happening near England and those areas, to happen in Alaska! Then we’d get a mega dump!
Yeah that look over AK is just really bad
Webb was posting 30 day SER maps non stop. I don’t think he was calling for that. Great to see the pattern change!
He was agreeing that any change would probably be after Christmas or early January given the crawling MJO progression due to La Niña
After a Wednesday thru Saturday CAD that keeps us cloudy and cold we warm up for the rest of the weekend before another cold front comes in to rinse and repeat CAD .. looks good to me
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I continuously repeated the GFS was a bad model .. proof is in the pudding and this is medium range stuff 
tennessee storm
Member
no where as bad as the cmc lol
This is shaping up to be interesting, more moisture return this run 
Looks like someone took a big bite out of the SER .. snowy cold pattern? No. Extensively long 80 degree days … I don’t think so 1-2 very warm days that could lead to severe weather .. maybe 
The pac is hot garbage tho, sheesh, IMO we have trended to a more active pattern, the solutions earlier would have meant rain to our NW, still mostly AN stuff given the SW H5 flow aloft but the shortwave early next week came out of nowhere and should wedge us for a day or 2
If the MJO does follow that thinking then perhaps it could crawl through good phases right as we’re entering good climo of early January. Obviously we need other indicies to work in our favor as well
Juicy
tennessee storm
Member
yeah like the crummy pacific, which has been very stubborn. hard fix that overnight. mjo goes into good phase, we will be looking at transient colder shots only
Phase 7-8 MJO in early January typically results in a bombshell pattern (-NAO/-EPO) but it’s been a very long time
June dews in mid Dec? No thanks I'll pass, even if it does bring much needed rain.
Don’t want a throwback to the air you feel when thunderstorms are dodging you but smacking Spartanburg???
I have my doubts it gets anywhere near phase 8. Maybe 7 briefly before heading back to crap. I hope I'm wrong but recent years have shown that. And the sst in that region is largely unchanged. Seems as I remember last year or the one before it entered 8 and 1 in a low aplitude and blew through them in a mater of a day or two right back to the bad phases.