• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December to Remember

SD said:
VeView attachment 98035
Click to expand...
If this pans out that not bad at all and again nice trends. Also, if that is right, this means the true torch was only a handful of days and not wall to wall like it appeared might occur. SER is real but the SER on roids that models love to show in the extended the last couple of years always gets muted closer we get in time. Thanks to -NAO I suppose and of course if we lose that it could get ugly but for now again I'm loving the trends. Thanks for posting these daily man
 
metwannabe said:
If this pans out that not bad at all and again nice trends. Also, if that is right, this means the true torch was only a handful of days and not wall to wall like it appeared might occur. SER is real but the SER on roids that models love to show in the extended the last couple of years always gets muted closer we get in time. Thanks to -NAO I suppose and of course if we lose that it could get ugly but for now again I'm loving the trends. Thanks for posting these daily man
Click to expand...
We locally caught a bit of a break with how the pattern set up to avoid the real super warm stuff at least for as long of a duration as we could have. The monthly mean should still end up ++++++ with at least 7-8 +10+ days which are hard to erase when the cold is seasonal.
 
Some unbelievably cold air building up over the arctic and northwestern Canada on the GFS. I like the trough breaking off into a ULL, retrograding under the block south of the Aleutians. That would help to pump heights up out west and direct colder air into the SE. If the model is right and is too quick breaking down the -NAO, it will get really cold here with that look. But it's 384 hours out, so lol at this point, I guess. Anyway, better than seeing a big #golfweather SE ridge.

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_65.png
 
The GEFS now has the MJO not reaching phase 8 through the end of its run (12/29) though it is getting close then. Early on it straddles the border between 7 and 6:

CD5F2E16-6E38-4284-9705-5E3C1050C14D.gif

The Euro also doesn’t get to phase 8 by the end and is actually back into 6 early in the run. So, they don’t agree where the MJO is now:

9608573C-1535-41A4-8A2E-B0906D02BEF0.gif
 
GaWx said:
The GEFS now has the MJO not reaching phase 8 through the end of its run (12/29) though it is getting close then. Early on it straddles the border between 7 and 6:

View attachment 98047

The Euro also doesn’t get to phase 8 by the end and is actually back into 6 early in the run. So, they don’t agree where the MJO is now:

View attachment 98048
Click to expand...

I would assume this may bode well for colder air lasting well into January if we make a slow pass through 7,8,1…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The GEFS has a -NAO and -AO starting shortly and remaining that way through the end: very nice for cold lovers!

2517966F-B6A2-4E4D-9D3F-EE6F95717B1E.gif210C21A6-1301-4EC2-AF32-ECB01FCB3685.gif

However, to get sustained dominant cold in the SE (I don’t mean cold just via wedges that are in and out), it would be very helpful to get rid of the -PNA, which is stubborn through the end of the run though hinting it may head to neutral late:

D6658ABD-BA68-430D-B19F-7909FEA6C9A0.gif
 
SD said:
If anyone this it's worthwhile I'll start a thread for the Iowa severe today since it's outside of the region but probably going to generate some discussion here
Click to expand...
When you set your record high at 5 am, and it’s already noticeably humid out, it’s a little scary
 
whatalife said:
I would assume this may bode well for colder air lasting well into January if we make a slow pass through 7,8,1…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...


And also phase 2, another pretty chilly phase. It normally is great in combo with -NAO/-AO but the main fly in the ointment is the stubborn -PNA, which needs to go by January to give the best shot at longlasting dominant cold and not just in and out cold via wedging. At least getting to neutral would help.
 
GaWx said:
And also phase 2, another pretty chilly phase. It normally is great in combo with -NAO/-AO but the main fly in the ointment is the stubborn -PNA, which needs to go by January to give the best shot at longlasting dominant cold and not just in and out cold via wedging. At least getting to neutral would help.
Click to expand...

I agree. Grit's twitter post gave me some nice encouragement and patience for January out west. I liked the description too of how this year, although similar it seems to this year, is a bit different in the Pacific with perhaps a better outcome for January. I hope he's right about the pacific jet and its effect on the ridging. If we can get it to come east in tandem with a -NAO, and a cold Canada, we'd be in business. I don't think I've seen a true -NAO/-AO/+PNA regime set up in my weenie days. It would be nice to see the outcome of that.

Just impatient looking at the meh as far as the eye can see on the models. And the MJO waffling is not helping.

gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_65.png
 
Is there a legit chance of getting the pacific ridge to push further east sometime soon is it all wishful thinking?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Gotta love the trend, this is quickly turning into a favorable pattern for the Carolinas if we can sneak some energy from the western trough View attachment 98063View attachment 98064
Click to expand...
Can we please just close off retrograde the system off the WC under the ridge and stop the connection to the energy trying to find dive S through Canada? If we can't it's a chilly pattern but will be prone to moderate toward New Years
 
SD said:
Can we please just retrograde the system off the WC under the ridge and clean that up? If we can't it's a chilly pattern but will be prone to moderate toward New Years
Click to expand...
That’s basically what grit said would possibly eventually happen lol. The only reason i like the -PNA in that case is the barrage of energy that could enter that confluence and we score that way, sort of like march 2018
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top