Pattern Novemburrr

[tennessee storm]

even in bad pattern winters we will sneak some sort of Evolution out at someee point in the winter to give us a shot. We can’t be throwing the towel in before we even get into December lol is all I’m saying

Don’t recall anything sneaking in on me. And I’m in Tennessee… that winter 11. 12.. hope I am wrong yeah don’t throw towel in this early I am not, but what I am seeing we will be fighting a loosing battle prettt much things don’t get fixed in the pacific . Never seen it this bad thus far

 

[SD]

Don’t recall anything sneaking in on me. And I’m in Tennessee… that winter 11. 12.. hope I am wrong yeah don’t throw towel in this early I am not, but what I am seeing we will be fighting a loosing battle prettt much things don’t get fixed in the pacific . Never seen it this bad thus far

601

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Don’t recall anything sneaking in on me. And I’m in Tennessee… that winter 11. 12.. hope I am wrong yeah don’t throw towel in this early I am not, but what I am seeing we will be fighting a loosing battle prettt much things don’t get fixed in the pacific . Never seen it this bad thus far

Yeah I’m talking about real ones in CAD NC ain’t ever gone 1 winter without any type of winter precip

 

[Webberweather53]

Yeah I’m talking about real ones in CAD NC ain’t ever gone 1 winter without any type of winter precip

That’s not really true, I’ve come across at least a few winters where CAD regions NW of Charlotte were blanked.

 

[Somosdel]

As we know in NC all it takes is one storm and winter is a success. Even with a mild winter we can sneak out a good one. No reason to get down this early.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Hey at least we get some water soon

 

[Webberweather53]

If you look at all La Ninas since 1895 that were above normal in Dec at RDU, the median snow of those 22 winters is ~3.7", or ~25% below normal and ~2/3rds of those winters had below average snowfall. Not the end of the world, and you could cherry-pick a few occasional blockbusters (1999-00) as a counterpoint, but the overall signal certainly puts us at a decided disadvantage when December is warm in a la nina. Same can not be said for El Nino winters tho.

So, we're basically giving ourselves a 33% chance (historically) to end up 'cashing in' this winter, you can basically assume that's the upper bound on the chances here because the long-term trend is towards warmer/less snowy winters w/ time.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

You know it’s bad when even the daily CFS shows what the major ensembles are showing and not some crazy blockbuster snow pattern

 

[Webberweather53]

You know it’s bad when even the daily CFS shows what the major ensembles are showing and not some crazy blockbuster snow pattern View attachment 95467View attachment 95468View attachment 95470View attachment 95469View attachment 95471

On the bright side, it’s a good pattern for me if we can briefly shift and amp the wavelengths. Negative NAO/AO/EPO often leave me warmer than normal

 

[Myfrotho704_]

lol when you look at it there’s literally nothing going good for the eastern US in early December for cold, the MJO, SPV, the evolution in AK, the disappearing blocking, I mean the only way I could think we improve it is get some random -NAO to try and come back from some super random wavebreaking. let’s just enjoy this while it’s here

 

[GaWx]

Imagine waking up to read the last 40 or so new posts and just about none of them have anything to do with the thread topic of November, which is going to end up nice and cold…actually the coldest month in years anomalywise for a good bit of the SE. A fantastic month!

 

[GaWx]

This could be another one of those winters where KATL doesn’t get its first official freeze until mid December.

KATL will very likely will have its first freeze on November 23rd. Even way down here we may have our first freeze by November 24th.

 

[Tarheel1]

You've told us about 600 times we know

Has that severe look to it! ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Imagine waking up to read the last 40 or so new posts and just about none of them have anything to do with the thread topic of November, which is going to end up nice and cold…actually the coldest month in years anomalywise for a good bit of the SE. A fantastic month!

They just have to be negative when it’s so cold out lol nothing we can do but the December talk should stay in the December thread

 

[Webberweather53]

Me trying to find this December thread




The same people complaining about this discussion not being in the non-existent December thread wouldn't say a peep if December looked cold & we piled it on in this thread. Weenies modernweenie

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

That’s not really true, I’ve come across at least a few winters where CAD regions NW of Charlotte were blanked.

Have not been blanked in my 56 years of living here..... What years are you referring to?

 

[Faco Thomas]

Looks like we’re headed for another warm winter

At this point in the game, I accept that things don't work like they used to. Even ENSO seems not to matter much anymore neither. The last three El Nino's have been quite warm in the SE. Until waters near Australia cool down,this is basically what we should expect every Winter for the SE going forward.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Well there’s this, ICON has 925s below freezing under the trough axis meaning highs would probably barely make it in the mid 40s

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I like

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Icon really starting to try as well with this late November system! This is darn close you can’t say other wise. Not there yet but this is workable

 

[Webberweather53]

I like View attachment 95477

Pass

 

[GaStorm]

Imagine waking up to read the last 40 or so new posts and just about none of them have anything to do with the thread topic of November, which is going to end up nice and cold…actually the coldest month in years anomalywise for a good bit of the SE. A fantastic month!

It's too bad we don't have a correlation to winter temps for cold Novembers.

 

[Stephenb888]

This forum is depressing toda

 

[GaWx]

It's too bad we don't have a correlation to winter temps for cold Novembers.

Actually, there’s a slight correlation of cold Novembers to cold winters in the SE…only slight meaning that doesn’t at all mean a cold winter is likely but the slight positive correlation is there if you were to look at many decades of history.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs liking the idea of a anafront

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

The evolution that’s showing up is one that’s gonna be hard to break out of and is gonna take time, it’s just something that’ll hopefully change in models but La Niñas are typically better for the eastern US to start winter into mid winter, then the SE ridge becomes a issue the second half, it would suck wasting the first half away that favors better stuff in a La Niña for the east/southeast

Spitballing here. Wasn’t 2017 a Niña that produced for us? I can remember a decent snow that winter. Mostly stuff coming down out of Canada. Just can’t remember what month.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Well there’s this, ICON has 925s below freezing under the trough axis meaning highs would probably barely make it in the mid 40s View attachment 95475View attachment 95476

When the lake Lanier warm nose is already showing up on 925’s you know it’s a wrap.

 

[Arcc]

This forum is depressing toda

Eventually you will realize the reason people get depressed changes every 6 hours and you will learn to rarely be depressed.

 

[SD]

Spitballing here. Wasn’t 2017 a Niña that produced for us? I can remember a decent snow that winter. Mostly stuff coming down out of Canada. Just can’t remember what month.

2017 turned cold right at Christmas then we had that mega week of cold. Just missed the coastal in early Jan (parts of NC did well) then the big snow about 10 days later. Feb torched. Then it snowed like 4 times in March/April here

 

[olhausen]

Sometimes the cartoons are right and sometimes wrong as they are just guidance. Makes for interesting wx forecasting discussions.

I love this time of year no matter the wx! And it doesn't get much better than today in November. Plus I'm loving the chilly month. That chilly Bleakies run from a couple of weeks ago was spot on! Hoping for a brisk stroll later! Had a good one last evening.

Me too! I look at the start of the winter the same as I look at a football or baseball season that’s just starting. There are lots of predictions but in the end there’s a reason they play the games and do not crown the preseason favorites before each season. It’s always exciting to see what kind of winter you’ll end up with at the end. The southeast is quite often a second half team so we should not write off the winter before December is even started.

 

[Arcc]

It’s amazing to me how much the 12z GFS repeats the same pattern, over and over.

 

[Stormdoc]

Anyway we can get that energy in Texas to strengthen up? Plus more confluence in Northeast? I know that’s not going to happen, but it is that time of the year at least!

 

[SD]

 

[Brick Tamland]

WRAL is giving their winter forecast tomorrow night on the 6:00 news. I expect it to be as conservative as possible.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

View attachment 95508

Models looked pretty cold and pretty fun this afternoon ?

 

[SD]

Eps raises heights along the west coast and in the pacific after about D7 again vs the 0z run which was an improvement over yesterday's runs

 

[Ollie Williams]

People were cheering on the MJO several days ago because it looked like we were entering the cold phases. Going to run through 4-7 into early December, couldn’t get any warmer than this. No real signal for cold until/if we ever reach 8 (maybe** mid December?) Phase 7’s anomalies aren’t statistically significant except over the northern Plains

View attachment 95466View attachment 95465

Isn't phase 7 the snowiest phase in December. Or does that not become significant until later in the month?

 

[Tarheel1]

Models looked pretty cold and pretty fun this afternoon ?

This week looks cold for most! Can we get a mustachioed emoji? Please

 

[GaWx]

Models looked pretty cold and pretty fun this afternoon ?

Indeed, all of the 12Z ensembles have the SE BN for the next 10-11 days. The 0Zs were similar. No mild anytime soon if models are right. And then by that time, you’re getting away from any kind of reliability from models.