Can’t get too ahead of ourselves right now but certainly going in the right direction .. we’ve seen the directions change quite often tho so ??
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Pattern Novemburrr
- Thread starter SD
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Models trolling me ticking up on rain amounts tomorrow
Can’t get too ahead of ourselves right now but certainly going in the right direction .. we’ve seen the directions change quite often tho so ??
With the SE having had a chilly month, about to have their coldest of the season, with chill continuing through 12/1 or 12/2 on the models, and the MJO forecasted by the Euro to exit the MC in early December in a position to potentially rotate at low amplitudes into the left side of the RMM diagram for much of the rest of December, the cold lover in me is liking what I’m seeing for the SE for the next few weeks overall. There are almost always mild interludes. If so, so what? That’s normal.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I've been meaning to add the RMM MJO index to that excel sheet on my website, I may do so while also updating all those indices.
Not a huge sample size but they're pretty evenly distributed across December in phase 7 from what I can see. I still haven't included every storm in this time period and normalized by # of days per month & MJO phase.
These are the storms have occurred in RMM phase 7 during December. What I find most interesting is that storms which produce any wintry precip in the piedmont and coastal plain are ice storms/CAD, and there are some big snows for the Apps and far western-northwestern piedmont. There's little-no snow SE of the Triad in any of these events.
December phase 7 RMM NC winter storms
December 25 1981 (NW piedmont + Mtns crush job)
December 8-9 1989 (Ice storm)
December 13-14 2000 (Ice storm)
December 4-5 2002 (Ice storm)
December 18-19 2009 (NW piedmont + Mtns crush job)
December 18 2010 (negligible)
December 8-9 2017 (NW piedmont + Mtns crush job)
LickWx
Member
The best December storm tho isn’t on your list . 2018! So we need whatever 2018 had .
I’ll take any wintry precip before our best climo
That was phases 2 and 3.
I bet your pardon??????
This period is legit holy cow 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Probably my favorite all time December storm, but then again I'm biased towards the Sandhills lol. Ice storm came around a couple days later and put a nice crust layer on top of the 12-15"+ of snow SE of Raleigh
Small adjustments = big time changes 
NoSnowATL
Member
congratulations West Virginia
That December 8-9, 1989 Ice Storm was a a forgotten beast. 2 solid inches of sleet with freezing rain on top had the CLT area shutdown. One of my sister’s friends was in a very serious car accident during that storm
34-37 on a late November morning ? Pants bursting average late November morning weather !!!
Any flakes in November is a W in my book plus 850s nice and cold all I’m saying is don’t sleep on the potential .. getting closer into range and rates would easily overcome boundary temps like that
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The Euro at the same time fwiw wasn’t much different. I’d become mildly intrigued if that look holds and improves the next several runs. For now, I’m not taking it too seriously and I’d argue it’s probably more likely the Apps and New England get some snow out of it
Ridge out west pushing more and more towards a +PNA
Aw man, “rate will easily overcome”, guys happy to be back doing winter with y’all!
No disrespect at all, NickyB, just happy to hear our fav phrases out and about again!
Wish the ridge out west could get more taller for this thing to dig, it’s certainly trying 
Mr. Golf
Member
A guy at American Weather mentioned about the niña becoming more east based that should allow the convection not to be stuck in the MC all winter and to be able to propagate further (mjo). That is the only thing that is keeping me mildly intrigued moving forward. And I guess coupled with the -qbo. Interesting combination
Major shift to a +PNA
Laughable 
Way too far out but happy hour is among us 
Run to run change ?
I see what y’all were saying about we don’t need the -NAO 
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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that pv is tighter than a...... u know what nevermind.
Mr. Golf
Member
We see if gefs matches that.
This that fat white rain stuff
Yeah I would like this better than having a -NAO, but a crappy Pacific. In fact, the very late Dec 2017/early Jan 2018 cold spell didn't feature a -NAO at all. However had a strongly +PNA to force the cold air southeast. Jan/Feb 2014 also didn't really have a -NAO neither,but did have a +PNA/-EPO. Hopefully we can see more of this come mid and late Dec.
D
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This is just comedic.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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You can put that in the "not happening" hall of fame
Mr. Golf
Member
2013-14 winter was incredible. Such a strong -epo. I dont give a rats a** where the boundary sets up if we get that
Mr. Golf
Member
Jonesboro had 6 winter storms in that winter??
Gonna look like a complete dumbass when models flip colder early December, been noticing this nov has had a super persistent with a +EPO but a +PNA, not gonna exactly get the coldest air with that combo but it can work in the winter 
Hey man if it’s flipped on happy hour it could easily flip back 00z
Late Next week/weekend went from meh to a nice western ridge and EC trough, anything is possible
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Still pulling for a tick NW and a Thanksgiving miracle......
I mean this is impressive we quietly trended to a deep EC trough/SE can Vortex
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