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Pattern Novemburrr

pcbjr said:
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Sometimes the cartoons are right and sometimes wrong as they are just guidance. Makes for interesting wx forecasting discussions.

I love this time of year no matter the wx! And it doesn't get much better than today in November. Plus I'm loving the chilly month. That chilly Bleakies run from a couple of weeks ago was spot on! Hoping for a brisk stroll later! Had a good one last evening.
 
GaWx said:
Sometimes the cartoons are right and sometimes wrong. Makes for interesting wx forecasting discussions.

I love this time of year no matter the wx! And it doesn't get much better than today in November. Hoping for a brisk stroll later! Had a good one last evening.
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Ditto and did you read my PM about the frontal passage yesterday? Fabulous ...

... and cartoons and maps are just that ... not the Gospel ... ?‍♂️
 
I think tomorrow we hit 50-52, the AFD mentions single digits, if winds die down, so could be around 40-45 degree range from Sunday high to Monday mornings low?
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Models were in pretty good agreement on early Dec til late yesterday. Now I wonder who's gonna blink first, literally the exact opposite patterns being depicted over N America on the GEFS & EPS.

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Looks like the GEFS is gonna win this battle vs the EPS (again). Hope it stays warm enough for me to play golf around Christmas

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SD said:
Good to see the eps at least stop the run to run lowering of heights in the pac with the 0z run but overall not a great pattern
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Very ugly all around to end off the EPS, solid +AO, +NAO and just this awkward looking Canadian ridge and -PNA, then a weakening Aleutian ridge, pretty much the complete opposite of what we want snow wise AE2E2C9F-D412-4BF6-B300-7B2C75A4A07D.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Grit did pretty good last year with the -NAO analogs and even pacific
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Grit is good. But he's been wrong plenty, just like everyone else. I enjoy reading all the winter forecasts and the good reasoning behind them. But at the end of the day, long range forecasting is little more than a coun flip.

That said, there is no reason to expect a cold winter. If you just take persistence alone, you will come up with a map that has yellows and oranges over the east. One day that will change. Nobody knows when, though. Even so, we can still have several bouts of winter weather.
 
Rain Cold said:
Liking the less concentric look as you head lower in the atmosphere. ?
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That’s eventually gonna couple and probably why were seeing the very warm look to start out December, that’s some unusual warmth showing up at least at 850mb for much of NA, o mean for example look at this week, there’s a stretched PV towards NA, and look, we have some of the coldest anomalies on our side (NA) 55410137-EAE4-4EF4-B818-0830F35B1FC9.pngD5CE04BC-FBEE-41E4-86AD-0273159DA4CC.png but now we get the PV away back towards the other side and we’re getting these NA/US wall to wall warmth looks again, eventually a PV away from us would reflect, and this was the same exact reason why october had record breaking warmth across NA, the SPV was on the other side of the world4E88DB0C-6E14-43B4-BF67-45AB24BC5254.gif7E402C1E-2CE1-4EB5-A056-E48A71D31E62.png29666E2E-611B-47D7-BAFE-8C506A2FBA9A.png trust me I want it to snow again, im seriously not even rooting for warmth at this point
 
Rain Cold said:
We should have been using the analog method to forecast winters for years now instead of just blindly guessing, since it's so accurate!

Oooooof
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The winters in each of those composites are all over the place for snow, the warmer +EPO group has complete trash in 2011-12 & 2005-06 but 1999-00 & 1988-89 that found a way to go off for a few weeks that year, but were otherwise torches. The other side is 1985-86 & 2000-01 (meh), & 2017-18 (great), 1995-96 (the only decent winter of the entire 1990s)
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That’s eventually gonna couple and probably why were seeing the very warm look to start out December, that’s some unusual warmth showing up at least at 850mb for much of NA, o mean for example look at this week, there’s a stretched PV towards NA, and look, we have some of the coldest anomalies on our side (NA) View attachment 95460View attachment 95461 but now we get the PV away back towards the other side and we’re getting these NA wall to wall warmth looks again, eventually a PV away from us would reflect, and this was the same exact reason why october had record breaking warmth across NA, the SPV was on the other side of the worldView attachment 95464View attachment 95462View attachment 95463 trust me I want it to snow again, I’m and seriously not even rooting for warmth at this point
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This year reminds me a little of 2011-12 honestly. Cold got dumped into Alaska in December and never left the rest of the winter
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Bro this is early December ?? we will be alright
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The evolution that’s showing up is one that’s gonna be hard to break out of and is gonna take time, it’s just something that’ll hopefully change in models but La Niñas are typically better for the eastern US to start winter into mid winter, then the SE ridge becomes a issue the second half, it would suck wasting the first half away that favors better stuff in a La Niña for the east/southeast
 
Webberweather53 said:
This year reminds me a little of 2011-12 honestly. Cold got dumped into Alaska in December and never left the rest of the winter
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That analog is honestly being touted as number one going into this winter . Why I can’t get to excited . It’s starting out just like that 11 12 winter
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The evolution that’s showing up is one that’s gonna be hard to break out of and is gonna take time, it’s just something that’ll hopefully change in models but La Niñas are typically better for the eastern US to start winter into mid winter, then the SE ridge becomes a issue the second half, it would suck wasting the first half away that favors better stuff in a La Niña for the east/southeast
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even in bad pattern winters we will sneak some sort of Evolution out at someee point in the winter to give us a shot. We can’t be throwing the towel in before we even get into December lol is all I’m saying
 
People were cheering on the MJO several days ago because it looked like we were entering the cold phases. Going to run through 4-7 into early December, couldn’t get any warmer than this. No real signal for cold until/if we ever reach 8 (maybe** mid December?) Phase 7’s anomalies aren’t statistically significant except over the northern Plains

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Myfrotho704_ said:
The evolution that’s showing up is one that’s gonna be hard to break out of and is gonna take time, it’s just something that’ll hopefully change in models but La Niñas are typically better for the eastern US to start winter into mid winter, then the SE ridge becomes a issue the second half, it would suck wasting the first half away that favors better stuff in a La Niña for the east/southeast
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Yes December is prime real estate for La Niña winters, wasting that away would really suck. Hopefully we give ourselves an opportunity mid to late month, if we can push the MJO into the W hem, we’ll have a shot. February is almost always above average or a torch in these kinds of winters, so the clock is already ticking. Certainly plenty reason to be discouraged rn
 
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