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Pattern Novemburrr

SD said:
View attachment 95611

This thing is close to bringing in some legit snow
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I posted this a.m. it wasnt far off on all 3 ops from 0z @ h5. Trending even better at 12z/ euro espacilly. Need to back the flow just a tad more and sharpen the trough, notch quicker and we have a decent shot. Doable definitely and Not Guranteed as well
 
I like it better showing a slim chance 7 days out with room to work with instead of it showing a massive snow storm 7 days out and for it to go poof.
 
KATL, itself, will be close to a freeze tonight. They do much better with cold air advection/wind than with radiational cooling/calm. Will there be just enough NW wind to get them there? I think so but it will be close:

KFFC NWS forecast:
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

ATHENS 31 53 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 32 52 32 56 / 0 0 0 0

This 12Z GFS 2m map implies a slight warm bubble that may just keep them barely above 32:

gfsop_12_t2ms_gc_h_0024.png

But the 12Z Euro and CMC say right on 32:
ecmop_12_t2ms_gc_h_0024.png

canop_12_t2ms_gc_h_0024.png
 
47 degrees and dropping here in Roanoke. Wind is absolutely freezing as I’m closing up the golf course tonight. Some virga overhead is interesting, must be a little piece of energy still left.
 
LukeBarrette said:
47 degrees and dropping here in Roanoke. Wind is absolutely freezing as I’m closing up the golf course tonight. Some virga overhead is interesting, must be a little piece of energy still left.
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Gotta be like the 5th or so time virga has occurred this November.
 

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GaWx said:
KATL, itself, will be close to a freeze tonight. They do much better with cold air advection/wind than with radiational cooling/calm. Will there be just enough NW wind to get them there? I think so but it will be close:

KFFC NWS forecast:
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

ATHENS 31 53 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 32 52 32 56 / 0 0 0 0

This 12Z GFS 2m map implies a slight warm bubble that may just keep them barely above 32:

View attachment 95616

But the 12Z Euro and CMC say right on 32:
View attachment 95617

View attachment 95618
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This is why I never believed it would happen. The models were complete trash with today's air mass, essentially 5 days ago it was supposed to be in the 40s today and mid 20s tonight. Here we are 5 days later experiencing upper 50s and my low is only forecast to be 30, and I'm usually a good 4 degrees cooler than KATL. My guess is they hit 34 or 35.
 
J.C. said:
This is why I never believed it would happen. The models were complete trash with today's air mass, essentially 5 days ago it was supposed to be in the 40s today and mid 20s tonight. Here we are 5 days later experiencing upper 50s and my low is only forecast to be 30, and I'm usually a good 4 degrees cooler than KATL. My guess is they hit 34 or 35.
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1. Yes, I remember you saying over the weekend that KATL first freeze may not be til (mid?) December and I then said it had a good chance for tonight.

2. What elevation are you at? Higher elevations may do better tonight since it isn't radiational.

3. When KATL has enough NW wind bringing in enough CAA, even they do reasonably well in relation to other ATL areas nearby as opposed to sticking out real badly like a warm thumb. I still say the amount of NW wind will be the key. Will it be too light to help them or not? When a NW wind is blowing pretty steadily, they sometimes have been within about 2 F of much of the ATL metro outside of far N burbs.
 
GaWx said:
1. Yes, I remember you saying over the weekend that KATL first freeze may not be til (mid?) December and I then said it had a good chance for tonight.

2. What elevation are you at? Higher elevations may do better tonight since it isn't radiational.

3. When KATL has enough NW wind bringing in enough CAA, even they do reasonably well in relation to other ATL areas nearby as opposed to sticking out real badly like a warm thumb. I still say the amount of NW wind will be the key. Will it be too light to help them or not? When a NW wind is blowing pretty steadily, they sometimes have been within about 2 F of much of the ATL metro outside of far N burbs.
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1. They may get a chance later this week too.
2. 1148' I actually don't drop as low as some of the other areas around me either, my locale relies heavily on the CAA to get to my coldest temps. The low spots immediately around me are around 1000-1050', and they are always colder on calm nights. On calm cooling nights my temps will drop rapidly until around midnight, go up and down until about 3 hours before sunrise, and then start dropping again.
3. The northwest winds have really picked up now, so its going to be close. ?

An example on a calm evening for me:

1637617174328.png1637617198736.png
 
Geez , I wasn’t aware Atlanta city proper has yet to record a freeze . It’s amazing that it’s UHI has essentially pushed its average first freeze date all the way to December . That’s similar to a typical coastal location . Imagine if we had an Atlanta sized city on the coast, place probably wouldn’t freeze till January . NYC actually averages it’s first freeze almost in December at la guardia. Granted LGA is a terrible station and runs 2 degrees warmer than other city stations so I don’t see it’s averages as reflective at all and complete rubbish . Same for Baltimore .
 
Lickwx said:
Geez , I wasn’t aware Atlanta city proper has yet to record a freeze . It’s amazing that it’s UHI has essentially pushed its average first freeze date all the way to December . That’s similar to a typical coastal location . Imagine if we had an Atlanta sized city on the coast, place probably wouldn’t freeze till January . NYC actually averages it’s first freeze almost in December at la guardia. Granted LGA is a terrible station and runs 2 degrees warmer than other city stations so I don’t see it’s averages as reflective at all and complete rubbish . Same for Baltimore .
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Well, we're technically talking about the airport, not the city proper. I think that even the city proper, which is 15 or so miles north, is a little colder than the airport on radiational nights. The airport is THE worst and is thus quite unrepresentative of the ATL area on good radiational cooling nights.

IF KATL doesn't get a freeze one of the next two nights, KSAV will have a shot at an earlier freeze. Ridiculous!
 
GaWx said:
Well, we're technically talking about the airport, not the city proper. I think that even the city proper, which is 15 or so miles north, is a little colder than the airport on radiational nights. The airport is THE worst and is thus quite unrepresentative for the ATL area on good radiational cooling nights.
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I’d imagine the city proper is worse though, downtown , buckhead , perimeter . Now the rest of city proper is more suburban in nature so you are right . Though I think the airport and the dense areas are bad.
 
GaWx said:
Well, we're technically talking about the airport, not the city proper. I think that even the city proper, which is 15 or so miles north, is a little colder than the airport on radiational nights. The airport is THE worst and is thus quite unrepresentative for the ATL area on good radiational cooling nights.
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The location needs to be moved north. I think TWC location would be a great place.
 
Bham 99 said:
That's crazy there's part of North Carolina that hasn't seen an inch since 2011
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I'm not too surprised by that, coastal areas do not average a whole lot especially the southeastern part of the state which probably has a median snowfall of like T lol. I'll dig into some of that data later, most years see under an inch there anyways if anything.
 
Lickwx said:
I'm not too surprised by that, coastal areas do not average a whole lot especially the southeastern part of the state which probably has a median snowfall of like T lol. I'll dig into some of that data later, most years see under an inch there anyways if anything.
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You are correct… especially areas along the southern coastal areas. I think Wilmington has only had two snowfalls of greater than 3 inches since the December 1989 Christmas Blizzard
 
Chazwin said:
You are correct… especially areas along the southern coastal areas. I think Wilmington has only had two snowfalls of greater than 3 inches since the December 1989 Christmas Blizzard
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Yeah those areas snowfall avaerage is almost non existent if my memory is correct,I think the far SE coast of NC(SE Pender County) and points south have a snowfall average less than 1(which is easily much worse than even the Midlands of SC or Central GA, or the I-20 corrdior areas in LA/MS) and have snowfall average that comparable to that of the I-10 corrdior areas or something like that. These areas would be lucky to see 1+ inches snow more than once every 7-10 years. Never lived in those areas,so I can't speak from personal expereince,but that's would be my guess.
 
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