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Pattern Novemburrr

Close call tonight over northern NC…checked a few spots in Watauga and see wetbulb 33 to 36. Could be a spot or two that ----- before rain.
 
You Coastal Plain Guys keep an eye on early next week. Not to far off getting lucky enough for a novelty event. need just a hair tick west tug of the trough. lot of NS energy coming down.

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Ollie Williams said:
Mack gets a dumping of snow.
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Single digits in the plains, but 70s in NC. SMH
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Good angle of cold too, it dumps down in the Rockies. Our worst cold in NC happens from vortexes over the Great Lakes ! Would imagine from that angle there would be considerable modification. Pushing 80 and then a good , but not too intense cold blast ? I’ll take it .
 
Lickwx said:
Been a dry month . Need to refill Buckhorn lake !
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We need a lot of help tbh the 90 day anomalies are huge minus the US1 rainforest. If we can't get into a SER fire hose or get a -nao/-pna repetitive rain event pattern drought probably persists through summer 22. I'm close to starting a drought thread so that should tell you where I'm at with how this progresses hrap-all-raleigh-90day_anom-7496000.png
 
SD said:
We need a lot of help tbh the 90 day anomalies are huge minus the US1 rainforest. If we can't get into a SER fire hose or get a -nao/-pna repetitive rain event pattern drought probably persists through summer 22. I'm close to starting a drought thread so that should tell you where I'm at with how this progresses View attachment 95587
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That’s interesting because the areas with greatest 90 day deficits were having record rainfall earlier in the year and I’m pretty sure a lot of them exceeded their annual average sometime June/ July. Of course that’s not how drought works obviously with rainfall having to be spread out to avoid it but still interesting. Also lol apex has the biggest surplus in wake county.
 
Lickwx said:
That’s interesting because the areas with greatest 90 day deficits were having record rainfall earlier in the year and I’m pretty sure a lot of them exceeded their annual average sometime June/ July. Of course that’s not how drought works obviously with rainfall having to be spread out to avoid it but still interesting. Also lol apex has the biggest surplus in wake county.
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Yeah it's crazy how they went from super positive to negative and will likely end the year not that far from normal but be in drought conditions.
 
SD said:
We need a lot of help tbh the 90 day anomalies are huge minus the US1 rainforest. If we can't get into a SER fire hose or get a -nao/-pna repetitive rain event pattern drought probably persists through summer 22. I'm close to starting a drought thread so that should tell you where I'm at with how this progresses View attachment 95587
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And just think, some didn't believe us when we starting raising concerns back in August.
 
smast16 said:
And just think, some didn't believe us when we starting raising concerns back in August.
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No tropical systems other than elsa, not a single mountains to coast mcs like event, very few days where storms took off along a single focus then propagated outward on outflows/collisions covering a good % of the state, not many if any consolation prize stratiform .33-.75 late evening events, no stalled/slow upper lows, just a bunch of stuff along us1 with randoms here and there and kicking the can of near to slightly below average. Kept the grass green for a while but wasn't enough to avoid large scale drying
 
Brick Tamland said:
I'd rather it be dry than to have flooding.
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No one is wanting flooding, but it’s very important to get plenty of rainfall during the late fall and winter months in order to replenish and build up the water tables while you have less moisture going to vegetation. Otherwise when you get to spring and summer, a moderate drought can turn severe or extreme very quickly
 
The last 2 days shows you why trusting these models outside of 4 days is unrealistic. We went from toasting in early December to frigid in a matter of 3 or 4 run cycles. Although it does look promising that we will remain pretty cold at least the next week or 2, it is still 8 days before we even touch December and that is plenty of time to see these models flip on their head again. BUT, if we can get a +PNA at a minimum we will get some cold air down here and have a much better chance to see any type of winter weather. A -NAO is good at keeping you in the 40's and 50's during winter and a lot of cloudy and rainy days, but as last year showed us it is not enough to get any type of winter weather by itself. Get the Pacific on board and you are really going to be cooking with grease.
 
SD said:
No tropical systems other than elsa, not a single mountains to coast mcs like event, very few days where storms took off along a single focus then propagated outward on outflows/collisions covering a good % of the state, not many if any consolation prize stratiform .33-.75 late evening events, no stalled/slow upper lows, just a bunch of stuff along us1 with randoms here and there and kicking the can of near to slightly below average. Kept the grass green for a while but wasn't enough to avoid large scale drying
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Comparatively speaking I’d say we’re doing alright but this rain is much needed 55B70709-E88D-448C-A914-4986881A072D.png
 
Chances are slim-none, but it's not entirely impossible we see an event try to creep up on parts of eastern NC later next weekend & early next week, which some of the earlier ECMWF & ICON runs hinted at yesterday. We need the longwave trough axis to be centered at least back to the Apps to see something substantial in eastern NC. The GEFS has been trending that way somewhat of late, but we need to see a whole lot more where that came from to give us a realistic shot of seeing some snow and given this is already approaching day 6, time is running out for substantial changes synoptically. The cold air looks to generally be there this time around, so it's more of a matter of trough placement/amplitude.

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Webberweather53 said:
Chances are slim-none, but it's not entirely impossible we see an event try to creep up on parts of eastern NC later next weekend & early next week, which some of the earlier ECMWF & ICON runs hinted at yesterday. We need the longwave trough axis to be centered at least back to the Apps to see something substantial in eastern NC. The GEFS has been trending that way somewhat of late, but we need to see a whole lot more where that came from to give us a realistic shot of seeing some snow and given this is already approaching day 6, time is running out for substantial changes synoptically. The cold air looks to generally be there this time around, so it's more of a matter of trough placement/amplitude.

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Sheesh check out the 12z euro .. that’s about as close as you can get
 
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