• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

December Thread Name

December Thread Name

  • December Thread

    Votes: 12 13.5%
  • Duped December

    Votes: 5 5.6%
  • Damming December

    Votes: 1 1.1%
  • December To Remember

    Votes: 43 48.3%
  • Deplorable December

    Votes: 2 2.2%
  • December Desperado

    Votes: 5 5.6%
  • December Embers

    Votes: 5 5.6%
  • Decemburr

    Votes: 8 9.0%
  • December Decimation

    Votes: 2 2.2%
  • Dull December

    Votes: 6 6.7%

  • Total voters
    89
  • This poll will close: .

GaWx

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
10,938
Reaction score
25,498
Location
SAV, GA
Good news is that the 0Z GEFS looks like it could be similar to the 18Z, which itself was significantly colder than the 12Z and earlier runs.

And now I can add the 6Z to the 18Z and 0Z as GEFS runs in which there are only 1-2 AN days through the entire 16 days in the SE US meaning the impressive run of cold domination now has no end in sight at least per the GEFS!!

And with the GEFS suggesting the potential for a favorable MJO for SE cold mid to late Dec, well…..
 

NickyBGuarantee

-NAO/+PNA/-AO
Meteorology Student
Member
Joined
Dec 18, 2018
Messages
4,638
Reaction score
6,897
Location
Apex, NC
And now I can add the 6Z to the 18Z and 0Z as GEFS runs in which there are only 1-2 AN days through the entire 16 days in the SE US meaning the impressive run of cold domination now has no end in sight at least per the GEFS!!

And with the GEFS suggesting the potential for a favorable MJO for SE cold mid to late Dec, well…..
Some big dog ensembles at that C7C5F053-A186-409F-A720-31A605289A70.jpeg
 

Chazwin

Member
Joined
Dec 12, 2018
Messages
1,442
Reaction score
3,182
Location
Wingate, NC
The shallow western ridge this fall has been extremely stubborn, like what the southeast ridge use to be
and while that shallow ridge doesn’t help promote a cross polar flow to bring Siberian air mass into North America, it can help to bring in the cold that builds in NW Canada… as we go further into December that’s cold enough to get winter weather
 

Rain Cold

Shields up
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
10,583
Reaction score
29,830
Location
Raleigh, NC
Goes from phase 6 into the cod. I thought we want to see it in phase 7? Larry, do u see the BC after gefs top right corner? That's the bias corrected I meant earlier
A low amplitude MJO is not really something to worry about or get overly excited about. Lots of other pattern drivers at work out there.

Also, the western ridge may break down for a time, but we may also see blocking develop. There's some pretty good cold air building up over northern North America. Wouldn't take a lot to tap it.
 

Mr. Golf

Member
Joined
Sep 6, 2017
Messages
405
Reaction score
480
Location
jonesboro ar
A low amplitude MJO is not really something to worry about or get overly excited about. Lots of other pattern drivers at work out there.

Also, the western ridge may break down for a time, but we may also see blocking develop. There's some pretty good cold air building up over northern North America. Wouldn't take a lot to tap it.

Great raincold. If niñas are usually front loaded, hopefully we get action going soon.
 

Rain Cold

Shields up
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
10,583
Reaction score
29,830
Location
Raleigh, NC
Great raincold. If niñas are usually front loaded, hopefully we get action going soon.
I honestly have a hard time getting excited about or buying into modeled events before mid-December, unless we're talking about the upper Midwest or northeast. That's not to say a winter storm couldn't happen here, but anything more than token flakes or some sleet pellets now is quite rare, no matter the base state of ENSO.
 

ForsythSnow

Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
9,049
Reaction score
15,371
Location
North Forsyth County, Georgia
View attachment 95796GEFS seems to be cooler than the GFS
Night and day, given the GEFS has been steady I'm more inclined to believe the OP is going to be all over the place until we near verification or the Ens follow.
gfs_z500a_us_43.png
gfs-ens_z500a_us_43.png

Not to mention the GEFS has trended stronger over time toward a stronger ridge out west and stronger trough in the east gfs-ens_z500a_us_fh234_trend.gif
 

Chazwin

Member
Joined
Dec 12, 2018
Messages
1,442
Reaction score
3,182
Location
Wingate, NC
Night and day, given the GEFS has been steady I'm more inclined to believe the OP is going to be all over the place until we near verification or the Ens follow.
gfs_z500a_us_43.png
gfs-ens_z500a_us_43.png

Not to mention the GEFS has trended stronger over time toward a stronger ridge out west and stronger trough in the eastView attachment 95798
It never ceases to amaze me how an Op model can be a complete 180 from its own ensembles. I know I blast the GFS plenty, but in all honesty this something we’ve seen lately from the Euro as well.
 

Myfrotho704_

Out indefinitely with samononucleosis
Member
Joined
Oct 15, 2018
Messages
24,851
Reaction score
57,046
Location
Concord NC
trending to what we’ve had for about a month now, a western ridge/trying to get a +PNA going, and there’s a TPV in Canada which will enhance colder temps in Canada, this pattern could get interesting for the first week of December, it would be nice to see that ridge try to tower towards the NW territories, but hey a western ridge would work with this TPV. Been seeing a reflection in the snow mean D7E7AC87-35D5-47EF-80FA-012A6C097AD2.png E49CEFA7-9641-45C8-AD72-B7BCAA940A9C.png 5AA2C153-3ACE-4FEC-BA1B-40052CA5971B.png
 
Top