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Pattern December to Remember

SD said:
Most of the good eps trends got erased last night. Blah
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It's all still so far out but I think models have been relatively consistent in showing early December warmth. Now the cold behind it is even further out but it's a possibility that fits with previous nina type years. December 1 is barely under 240 hours right now! 9 days out.
 
Lickwx said:
It's all still so far out but I think models have been relatively consistent in showing early December warmth. Now the cold behind it is even further out but it's a possibility that fits with previous nina type years. December 1 is barely under 240 hours right now! 9 days out.
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I mean with the general trend of the cool season so far for the epo ridge to show then disappear as we get closer it's hard to not go with the models that show the +epo looks. We have a timeframe coming up (week 2 of Dec) where we can buck the trend but like you said a warm period is pretty likely on the back of the cold that should dominate through the next 7 days.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I absolutely love the high north of Alaska. If I could only have one teleconnection, that’s the one I’d pick. It was what made February 2014 so cold despite the +NAO, and occasional -EPO.
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It was the biggest reason why 2013-14 sort of bucked the trend for warmer February during -ENSO. Iirc, Florida was baking while we got those 2 storms on Feb 11 and Feb 12-13
 
Prestige Worldwide said:

DT is getting excited fwiw
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You and others can tag me as a weenie for saying this, but this Euro forecasted MJO by itself is downright yummy to me at the end!

ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif

Even if right, the challenge though will be the NAO/AO/PNA, which the GEFS is currently forecasting to all be unfavorable for SE cold at day 14 (Dec 6th). My hope is that they're off for Dec 6th and/or they will quickly reverse soon after to hopefully make for a cold mid to late Dec.
 
GaWx said:
You and others can tag me as a weenie for saying this, but this Euro forecasted MJO by itself is downright yummy to me at the end!

View attachment 95624

Even if right, the challenge though will be the NAO/AO/PNA, which the GEFS is currently forecasting to all be unfavorable for SE cold at day 14 (Dec 6th). My hope is that they're off for Dec 6th and/or they will quickly reverse soon after to hopefully make for a cold mid to late Dec.
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?
 
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