Dewey Dan December
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Usmeagle2005
Member
I’m really really late but Warmcember.
smast16
Member
December: When the wheels fall off.
Dog Days of December
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
winner winner, chicken dinner!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ding Dong Ditch December. Winter comes knocking at your door only to punk you out and hide in the bushes.
Glad you finally found the December thread! That wasn’t too hard huh?!
Early December looking warmer than average but after such a cold November it’ll be nice to relax a bit! Hopefully we can get some colder times by Christmas don’t even need snow just want some chilly temps for seasons greetings!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It didn't exist until I said something in the November thread.
Oh lord late November early December looks like it may have a surprise or two after all 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
264 hrs. I sleep
This is the December thread, it's not new it's what we've been doing a few months now.
It's not complicated either
It's not complicated either
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's fitting & ironic that the December threads are a dumpster fire rn. Foreshadowing.
The 2-7th looks almost continuously BN for the SE and was still like this on the 7th
In 2017 during a similar weak to moderate La Niña and after a chilly period, much of the SE US was much warmer than normal 11/28-12/5. Then the bottom fell out and the next two months averaged solidly BN along with several historic winter storms. And that was with the MJO just leaving the warmer MC phases on 12/6/17 (see image below). Similarly, the MJO is predicted to be just leaving the MC on 12/6/21 (see image below)!
Today is only November 23rd. Models can now only semi-reliably see out through 12/5 or so. The point is that there’s a very long way to go. The MJO looks promising and very similar to 2017 at the same time during similar ENSO.
I wonder what was being said on wx forums about winter prospects 4 years ago today on 11/21/2017 a week ahead of the MA period of 11/28-12/5/2017. Were they similarly dominated by negativity?
MJO Dec of 2017: focus on where it was on 12/6/17
View attachment 95484
Now notice that the Euro is forecasting the MJO to be in a very similar position at the end of its run on 12/5/21:
View attachment 95485
Today is only November 23rd. Models can now only semi-reliably see out through 12/5 or so. The point is that there’s a very long way to go. The MJO looks promising and very similar to 2017 at the same time during similar ENSO.
I wonder what was being said on wx forums about winter prospects 4 years ago today on 11/21/2017 a week ahead of the MA period of 11/28-12/5/2017. Were they similarly dominated by negativity?
MJO Dec of 2017: focus on where it was on 12/6/17
View attachment 95484
Now notice that the Euro is forecasting the MJO to be in a very similar position at the end of its run on 12/5/21:
View attachment 95485
Greenville unfortunately but the Piedmont has a real chance with that look and you’re not out of the question still though for both of us it’ll take a lot more good trends for this to look nice
Yeah if we are going to really flip things the next 2-4 weeks are probably going to be it.I mean, the Euro was entirely cold last week and everyone was excited. I was reading a post on 33andRain and the poster over there said that the models are having a difficult time forecasting the jet extension associated with the +EAMT. Typically this pattern leads to a -AO and -EPO in conjunction with the climatologically backed -QBO. I don't know much about the correlations in Eurasia, but maybe @Webberweather53 can weigh in on this?
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Warm start to December 
pcbjr
Member