• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December to Remember

SD said:
View attachment 95682

If there's a pattern to dislike it's probably this guy. Too cool to be warm too warm to snow.
Click to expand...

Well December looks like it's going to start pretty warm right out of the gate. Hopefully the ensembles will flip soon. My fear is this year is going to be last year without the -NAO. Bad pacific with no blocking......??

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png
 
SnowNiner said:
Well December looks like it's going to start pretty warm right out of the gate. Hopefully the ensembles will flip soon. My fear is this year is going to be last year without the -NAO. Bad pacific with no blocking......??

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_11.png
Click to expand...
The control goes bonkers just after thisecmwf-ensemble-c00-conus-t2m_f_anom_5day-8964800.png
ecmwf-ensemble-c00-conus-z500_anom_7day-8964800.png
 
It's going to take a couple days for the models to figure out on what happens after the +EAMT that is supposed to start after Thanksgiving. Euro has it more favorable while the GFS has it less favorable as a -PNA pattern develops per GFS.
 
cyclogent said:
well lookie what we have here, a little something to wake up to on a cold frosty morning. it's a way out in fantasy land (probably gone on the next run), although the ridge along the west coast and an Atlantic block is a good look in an overall pattern that has potential
Click to expand...
Certainly better than previous runs. Right now, it looks like just another cold chasing moisture setup. However the overall pattern does look promising.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Certainly better than previous runs. Right now, it looks like just another cold chasing moisture setup. However the overall pattern does look promising.
Click to expand...
If the cold air that’s chasing the precip is coming out of Siberia and the Arctic and there’s enough resistance to the flow offshore, it can certainly work in a big way
 
Broken024 said:
It'll be gone for 12z... I guarantee it.
Click to expand...
So will the colder air to be honest. We facing a pretty positive
Broken024 said:
It'll be gone for 12z... I guarantee it.
Click to expand...
so will colder air I. Bet. The , epo strongly positive and models are just now playing catch up to it… first half December looks warmer than average to me could possible even torch at times unfortunately.
 
tennessee storm said:
So will the colder air to be honest. We facing a pretty positive

so will colder air I. Bet pretty , epo strongly positive and models are just now playing catch up to it… first half December looks warmer than average to me could possible even torch at time unfortunately.
Click to expand...
I don’t want a December 2011 redux. :(
 
tennessee storm said:
Not to even menthon the mjo seems to be heading I
Towards the warmer phases
Click to expand...
If I remember correctly the southeast saw a decent snow in a warm phase not to long ago. I think it was Georgia and the upstate of SC So it can still happen even in a warmer phase
 
12z GFS delivers the goods to LA/MS on hrs 318 and 324. Nice to see fantasy grade snows showing near MBY this early in the season.
 
6/20 for N ga is definitely more than I was expecting for that time period. Add 1 if you go 2 more days but then it's so far in fantasy land that it's bound to change. I'd say the time frame is worth watching just being at around day 11 right now but we'll need the components to hold if anyone outside the mountains even wants to see a flake. Could be different by 18Z or tomorrow but the GEFS and end of the 10D EPS seems to be close to something at least regarding cold.
1637778482064.png
 
Interesting turn of events as the EURO actually ejects the piece of energy out SW and pulls it into the low that forms in 100 hours or so … still things are way too warm for anything to happen but that’s the first of that look I’ve seen on models. We would need a much more wound up system for anything fun to happen
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Interesting turn of events as the EURO actually ejects the piece of energy out SW and pulls it into the low that forms in 100 hours or so … still things are way too warm for anything to happen but that’s the first of that look I’ve seen on models. We would need a much more wound up system for anything fun to happen
Click to expand...
2F66511F-C661-4CFC-905D-A10B05CB146D.jpeg8BEAD0EA-5C9C-42A6-A938-080543C7E110.jpeg520A4A60-F5C3-4604-A0C3-1993B6D42CB8.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Interesting turn of events as the EURO actually ejects the piece of energy out SW and pulls it into the low that forms in 100 hours or so … still things are way too warm for anything to happen but that’s the first of that look I’ve seen on models. We would need a much more wound up system for anything fun to happen
Click to expand...

This actually looks plenty cold enough to me to yield a rain/snow mix in parts of the eastern NC. If the wave amps more + yields more cold advection on the NW side and legit precip falls back into the trailing air mass, the 850s will drop even further than shown here as will surface temps.

ecmwf-deterministic-se-t850-8176400.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top