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Pattern December to Remember

tennessee storm said:
Not to even menthon the mjo seems to be heading I
Towards the warmer phases
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If I remember correctly the southeast saw a decent snow in a warm phase not to long ago. I think it was Georgia and the upstate of SC So it can still happen even in a warmer phase
 
Here you go you snow starved heathens

gfs_asnow24_seus_46.png
 
6/20 for N ga is definitely more than I was expecting for that time period. Add 1 if you go 2 more days but then it's so far in fantasy land that it's bound to change. I'd say the time frame is worth watching just being at around day 11 right now but we'll need the components to hold if anyone outside the mountains even wants to see a flake. Could be different by 18Z or tomorrow but the GEFS and end of the 10D EPS seems to be close to something at least regarding cold.
1637778482064.png
 
Interesting turn of events as the EURO actually ejects the piece of energy out SW and pulls it into the low that forms in 100 hours or so … still things are way too warm for anything to happen but that’s the first of that look I’ve seen on models. We would need a much more wound up system for anything fun to happen
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Interesting turn of events as the EURO actually ejects the piece of energy out SW and pulls it into the low that forms in 100 hours or so … still things are way too warm for anything to happen but that’s the first of that look I’ve seen on models. We would need a much more wound up system for anything fun to happen
Click to expand...
2F66511F-C661-4CFC-905D-A10B05CB146D.jpeg8BEAD0EA-5C9C-42A6-A938-080543C7E110.jpeg520A4A60-F5C3-4604-A0C3-1993B6D42CB8.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Interesting turn of events as the EURO actually ejects the piece of energy out SW and pulls it into the low that forms in 100 hours or so … still things are way too warm for anything to happen but that’s the first of that look I’ve seen on models. We would need a much more wound up system for anything fun to happen
Click to expand...

This actually looks plenty cold enough to me to yield a rain/snow mix in parts of the eastern NC. If the wave amps more + yields more cold advection on the NW side and legit precip falls back into the trailing air mass, the 850s will drop even further than shown here as will surface temps.

ecmwf-deterministic-se-t850-8176400.png
 
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