Mr. Golf
Member
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Pattern December to Remember
- Thread starter SD
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I honestly have a hard time getting excited about or buying into modeled events before mid-December, unless we're talking about the upper Midwest or northeast. That's not to say a winter storm couldn't happen here, but anything more than token flakes or some sleet pellets now is quite rare, no matter the base state of ENSO.
Overrunning
Mr. Golf
Member
Bring it to the great state of Arkansas. ??
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
GEFS seems to be cooler than the GFS
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
A lot of noise showing up beyond 10 days on gefs. Good to see.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Night and day, given the GEFS has been steady I'm more inclined to believe the OP is going to be all over the place until we near verification or the Ens follow.
Not to mention the GEFS has trended stronger over time toward a stronger ridge out west and stronger trough in the east
It never ceases to amaze me how an Op model can be a complete 180 from its own ensembles. I know I blast the GFS plenty, but in all honesty this something we’ve seen lately from the Euro as well.Night and day, given the GEFS has been steady I'm more inclined to believe the OP is going to be all over the place until we near verification or the Ens follow.
Not to mention the GEFS has trended stronger over time toward a stronger ridge out west and stronger trough in the eastView attachment 95798
trending to what we’ve had for about a month now, a western ridge/trying to get a +PNA going, and there’s a TPV in Canada which will enhance colder temps in Canada, this pattern could get interesting for the first week of December, it would be nice to see that ridge try to tower towards the NW territories, but hey a western ridge would work with this TPV. Been seeing a reflection in the snow mean 
I made the mistake of getting caught up with the warmer solutions a week ago Because Im never comfortable with a Persistent AK vortex
Decent little +EAMT event this week, typically you see a +PNA response a week/couple weeks after 
This is what I’d call “super yummy”. Actually, it does go into phase 7 but at low amplitude/inside the circle and is then headed most likely to low amp 8. I couldn’t draw a more desirable forecast. Let’s hope it is real.
Actually, a low amplitude MJO on the left side has a lot of potential for the SE based on my extensive analysis of historical data. I prefer seeing that to a high amplitude per history. I hope it is real!
The colder trend of the GEFS continues for 12/5-9 and is downright cold in the SE on the 12Z. Compare to runs from just two days ago, when that period was AN instead of BN! What a change! Note that during that period is when the GEFS has a low amplitude 7 MJO on the way to low amp 8.
Phase 6 MJO in a La Niña isn’t bad at all, In fact it’s pretty good and matches what the GEFS is showing 
Agreed. I would be fine with the MJO staying fairly low amplitude provided we can get some other factors going for us. East of the mountains missed out on great snow potential last February because the MJO decided to flex in the wrong phase at the worst time. Given the Niña that we’re in, I would expect it to go into a higher amplitude as we go deep into January… this is another reason why I think the SE needs to score by January 10.
This euro run however in the medium range is quite warmer, watch the pacific tho looks like we’ll stay with eventually trying to get back to a +PNA 
I’m trying to stay calm upon seeing that much improved Euro MJO forecast vs yesterday’s that curled back into phase 6. @Rain Cold thought it was likely bogus and that appears to be the case now. @Webberweather53 did an extensive study that shows the Euro doesn’t do as well as the GEFS from the MC.
So, today we now have two awesome MJO forecasts from the two main ensembles.
I’ll paraphrase what @Rain Cold might say about the Euro. Its reliability downright sucks in the latter portion. ?
Here’s comes a +PNA
Setting ourselves up for a dec 8-9 storm again lmao
Calm down Fro, don't get too excited. The NE ridge is going to cause this one to cut.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Just slightly different solutions. 
Oh I know that, I’m talking about after the cold airmass settles, but geez the euro dumps it to our west
Mr. Golf
Member
U meant gfs fro lol
Mr. Golf
Member
Gfs is west also then lol
If that were to go out another 12 hours, the cold would be spilling into the rest of the east coast, and then like you said would possibly set the stage for something a couple days later… perhaps a weak low developing along the front boundary in the northern Gulf
Not exactly a fan of this 
The dreaded backwards L look with a western US/Arctic connection that’s dreaded, hopefully this keeps getting pushed back, pretty classic strong PV pattern 
Could look worse could look better at the end of the day something interesting is coming to our weather pattern soon
As long as we get our early December storm
Mr. Golf
Member
We will probably get real warm, but the million dollar question is for how long? Hopefully not long
Im not a fan of the strat pattern and I haven’t been the last couple
Weeks, the H5 pattern isn’t helping either with weakening the strat PV, the question is, when does H5 react to the ---- strat pattern, kind of a flashback to 2020 with the strat PV
I just don’t see it, besides a weak stretched PV event towards NA in early December, the H5 pattern is the opposite of what you want for a weak SPV with a -WPO, you want a trough over the Bering sea like last year, along with a ridge towards the Barents Sea, in time that weakens that strat PV, the strat PV is not just good at delivering cold into the lower latitudes, but it highly promotes -AO/-NAO, it’s hard to get sustained blocking with a strong PV, the good news tho is we’re in a -QBO right now which means the SPV could be more susceptible to weakening
The Euro Weekly Control says that NC gets a White Christmas
Thread : the euro is still king
12z eps charts for Gatlinburg, Huntsville, and Birmingham. Maybe there will be a threat of some sort for the south in early December.
