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Wintry Winter 2021/2022 Model Archive

12z GFS 11/26
Overrunning/Anafrontal Event

Pattern - December to Remember

Good news is that the 0Z GEFS looks like it could be similar to the 18Z, which itself was significantly colder than the 12Z and earlier runs. And now I can add the 6Z to the 18Z and 0Z as GEFS runs in which there are only 1-2 AN days through the entire 16 days in the SE US meaning the...
southernwx.com
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12z Euro 12/10
CAD Ice Event -- First run in a while

Pattern - December to Remember

This. I use to bite on these websites saying cold winter back in the late 2010s and I’ve learned my lesson, when you go warm, your most likely gonna be right Well if this is the case then why even bother being on here. If it never changes lol
southernwx.com
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18z GFS 12/11
Best run so far -- lights out down to GA 3in ice! 6in sleet SC! 12in snow NC!

Misc - 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Models show cold early winter arrival, throw up a site fundraiser. Raise the cash, models flip, classic pump and dump....that's how it's done ?
southernwx.com

Pattern - December to Remember

Starting get concerned bout a decent severe weather threat late next week for parts south
southernwx.com
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00z GFS 12/13
White Christmas!

Pattern - December to Remember

Serious question here. Isn't this -EPO more of a jacked up Aleutian ridge extending up into the EPO domain causing it to technically be negative? I thought a true -EPO was further north than that? I remember getting fooled by that last year in December when the NAO was technically negative but...
southernwx.com
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06z GFS 12/13
CAD sleet & Ice storm

Pattern - December to Remember

Ok, I think we'll all agree to give you the cold and snow the last 10 days of December, as long as you promise that it moves east to us the first 10 days of January. And not just with the moderating -NAO, we have to have that pacific ridge shift east with it for a +PNA. Deal? ? I’m scared of...
southernwx.com
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End of the GFS Run
I’m adding this because of how ideal the pattern looks:
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00z EPS Control 12/24
Minimal NC event

Pattern - Januworry

Not going to lie, the 18Z GEFS sucks and thus I’m giving it the ole SouthernWx toss because I can. If we are to believe recent CFS runs, we need to be patient and hopefully we’ll see a much better pattern starting in about 2 1/2 weeks. Hope the MJO starts moving!?Climo says it will eventually.
southernwx.com
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18z GFS 12/24
Mid Atlantic Event, but some of the board gets snow

Pattern - Januworry

Not going back to 6 from what I’m seeing. Least we hope not… time will tell. Whole winter everything been lagging
southernwx.com
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06z GFS 12/31
Nice Classic Coastal Event

Pattern - Januworry

I suspect we see an Apps runner similar to last February at some point this winter, giving middle and west TN ice or snow. Yep we can still score a snow storm or 2 in the upper southeast during a warmer winter. Hell if we couldn’t get snow in a warmer winter we’d never get snow. ?❄️?❄️??
southernwx.com
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12z GFS 1/2
Probably the Snowiest Totals I’ve Even Seen!

Misc - 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Check out Mayor Of Kingstown on Paramount+ Good show
southernwx.com

Pattern - Januworry

Certainly things can go boom! I don't think the GFS/Euro will have a good handle on it until 1-2 days prior, or even the day of. Sometimes they can not detect some features well due to the lower res. There is still model inconsistency, even with the GEFS members. Of course, the high res...
southernwx.com
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