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Pattern Januworry

NoSnowATL said:
Maybe look back to 13/14, 09/10. I think those were good winters.
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Even in both of those winters there were fairly long stretches of mild weather. Much of January 2010 was mild after the first week until we saw the pattern change in the last few days and we had a major storm as soon as cold returned. Even as good as February 2014 was KCLT still ended 1 degree above average for the month. In my memory, I don’t think any winters had true wall to wall cold in the southeast in my memory… I do hear people talk about ‘76-77, but that’s to far back for me to remember, even still if one were to look up the data that winter probably has some mild periods as well… we are in the south after all.
 
Chazwin said:
Even in both of those winters there were fairly long stretches of mild weather. Much of January 2010 was mild after the first week until we saw the pattern change in the last few days and we had a major storm as soon as cold returned. Even as good as February 2014 was KCLT still ended 1 degree above average for the month. In my memory, I don’t think any winters had true wall to wall cold in the southeast in my memory… I do hear people talk about ‘76-77, but that’s to far back for me to remember, even still if one were to look up the data that winter probably has some mild periods as well… we are in the south after all.
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76-77 was cold but January was record cold then boom February record warm . So even that wasn’t wall to wall.

Edit : February 1977 was cold but then hit 84 end of the month .
 
Lickwx said:
76-77 was cold but January was record cold then boom February record warm . So even that wasn’t wall to wall.

Edit : February 1977 was cold but then hit 84 end of the month .
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Looking at those two months, you can see why if you’re a snow lover in the NC, upstate SC, northern GA, and Tennessee, you don’t want cold to completely dominate a pattern. Most of that stretch was very dry for those areas.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I suppose that’s fair. I look for cold and anything below 70s is now doing it for me lol. But we need cold air to even thing about winter weather and we are finally getting that piece to the puzzle .. the rest comes with time .. I suppose it’s the other posters who continue doom and gloom that have irked me cause clearly it’s not that doom and gloom right I just think they trolling
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I hear you. I think we all might have a different idea of doom and gloom. I would consider that "oh it's not going to ever snow again" or "we're never going to have a shot at cold and snow this winter" or "I give up" (in December). Talking about a pattern that isn't really all that conducive for cold and snow isn't really doom and gloom. The other side of the coin -- blind optimism and ignoring reality is just as bad.

Most here want cold and snow...I think we can all pretty much agree on that. But if you look objectively at what is being shown currently, it doesn't' look like an alignment of favorable parameters to produce a cold and snowy pattern (of any duration) will occur over the next two weeks. Again, I'm not saying we can't perfectly time something during that time.

As you said, the pattern is changing to some degree. But the bulk of the cold air is still mostly too far away from us. We may get seasonably cool, but I think we can agree that is not a cold and snowy pattern. Beyond 2 weeks, who knows.

I'm optimistic that we can get a period where we see below normal temps, with a chance for snow. But we're going to have to move the western ridge east for that to happen or have the biggest, most perfectly placed -NAO you've ever seen.
 
Rain Cold said:
I hear you. I think we all might have a different idea of doom and gloom. I would consider that "oh it's not going to ever snow again" or "we're never going to have a shot at cold and snow this winter" or "I give up" (in December). Talking about a pattern that isn't really all that conducive for cold and snow isn't really doom and gloom. The other side of the coin -- blind optimism and ignoring reality is just as bad.

Most here want cold and snow...I think we can all pretty much agree on that. But if you look objectively at what is being shown currently, it doesn't' look like an alignment of favorable parameters to produce a cold and snowy pattern (of any duration) will occur over the next two weeks. Again, I'm not saying we can't perfectly time something during that time.

As you said, the pattern is changing to some degree. But the bulk of the cold air is still mostly too far away from us. We may get seasonably cool, but I think we can agree that is not a cold and snowy pattern. Beyond 2 weeks, who knows.

I'm optimistic that we can get a period where we see below normal temps, with a chance for snow. But we're going to have to move the western ridge east for that to happen or have the biggest, most perfectly placed -NAO you've ever seen.
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Fair but I think a period of below normal temps with even a shot at snow is better than an extended period of 60-70s with absolutely no chance of snow and even rain at times that’s a change I’m willing to accept with open arms at this point
 
metwannabe said:
It's kind of been explained numerous times, we allow post from members all over and maybe one day there will be sub-regional threads. Until such time his post about weather discussion in his backyard are welcome, just like post about Texas, Ok, Ga, etc. Also, your comment was more whambyish as many are becoming in here and I'd actually love to see those decrease in here. Thanks

We even allow some guy from Montana to complain about how cold it is up there while we bask in the torch of the ser. Lol
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Actually I’m from Alabama and moved to Montana two years ago but it’s true I will admit I have complained about it being to cold up this way but regardless I’m a die hard snow fan who moved from the south to witness snow greatness but if it wasn’t for my job I wouldn’t even be up here I’ll still be in Tuscaloosa complaining like everyone else who don’t get snow in there backyard… sorry for the banner guys carry the hell on lol
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
There’s no need for doom and gloom when this has been the trend ?? maybe I’m just an extremest troll though ?View attachment 99681
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From about D9 through 264 (which is as far as I can see now), it does look better. It's not a snow pattern but it should feel much more seasonal. Just talking about the Op, though, and like you said, it's not set in stone. We should see systems trek across the country and at least provide some rainfall.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
There’s no need for doom and gloom when this has been the trend ?? maybe I’m just an extremest troll though ?View attachment 99681
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Out a few frames further and it looks to me that the GFS is lining up for one of its famous end-of-run southern snowstorms. Let's see.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Out a few frames further and it looks to me that the GFS is lining up for one of its famous end-of-run southern snowstorms. Let's see.
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It’s eh afterwords seasonal like rain cold said but I love to see no deep troughing off the west coast and instead some +PNA … would at least lean any new cold air coming down towards central and eastern US more than it has been
 
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