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Pattern Januworry

ATLwxfan said:
This is true but we don’t want a huge cold Press either. It’s a delicate balance. I’d personally rather see us flirting with cold than see the hammer.


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I still much prefer to see the hammer on models, since they always have a cold bias in the long term. A lot of our storms are initially suppressed in the long range, so I prefer to see this in the 7-10 day than an actual storm.
 
is there a thread for Sunday severe weather for the SE? Look marginal atm for TX/La/Ms.
 
ATLwxfan said:
2014 was the last “cold” snow in ATL I think.


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Yes. Most of our storms are marginal temps and change-overs. I think 2017 and 2018 saw major snows northwest of the city with heavy rates and marginal temps. The 2014 over-running event started when my temp was 25. It iced the roads very quickly. I've only seen a small handful of these type of storms in my 50 years of living around Atlanta. 1982 was like that, too. The 93 super storm was a change over. the 2009 upper level low was also a change over situation. You know it's rare to get snow in your area when you can almost remember every single snow storm!

Continuing to see strong Arctic air move south in the long range is a good sign. We must have the cold in place first and preferably a continuous feed, laying down west to east. When I see snow in Jackson, MS north of a frontal boundary running west southwest to east northeast, I get interested! I need the 850 0 degree line down in north Florida if this is more than 72 hours out.

I think there was a storm in 1992 that started off as snow with temps below freezing. I think Fayetteville got 8" out of that one. I was at Georgia Tech at the time. Played a pick-up game of football on Grant Field in Bobby Dodd Stadium, on 1.5" of snow!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Man, you gotta stop hanging with Carysnow95 and poiman
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Man I’m just wanting to see a great look survive under the hour 180 shredder, it’s been very cold at hour 300+ for the last week with a great snow pattern, would be cool if that trickled down for some snow perhaps under hour 180 ?
 
weatherfide said:
Yes. Most of our storms are marginal temps and change-overs. I think 2017 and 2018 saw major snows northwest of the city with heavy rates and marginal temps. The 2014 over-running event started when my temp was 25. It iced the roads very quickly. I've only seen a small handful of these type of storms in my 50 years of living around Atlanta. 1982 was like that, too. The 93 super storm was a change over. the 2009 upper level low was also a change over situation. You know it's rare to get snow in your area when you can almost remember every single snow storm!

Continuing to see strong Arctic air move south in the long range is a good sign. We must have the cold in place first and preferably a continuous feed, laying down west to east. When I see snow in Jackson, MS north of a frontal boundary running west southwest to east northeast, I get interested! I need the 850 0 degree line down in north Florida if this is more than 72 hours out.

I think there was a storm in 1992 that started off as snow with temps below freezing. I think Fayetteville got 8" out of that one. I was at Georgia Tech at the time. Played a pick-up game of football on Grant Field in Bobby Dodd Stadium, on 1.5" of snow!
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Indeed, there was a big snow in January of 1992, an otherwise uneventful El Niño winter. My friend down in Henry County also received 8”. He was bragging about getting more than just about anyone in the Atlanta area. KATL still got 5”, which made it the biggest pure snow there since the amazing spring El Niño snow of 7.9” of 3/24/1983. About 5 miles north of the perimeter, I got a much smaller accumulation than the southside that I think was under 2” and it melted quickly due to marginal temperatures. It never stuck to roads in my area as I recall.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I guess it’s better delayed then denied, that’s a great look with strong high pressure rooted from the Arctic, far out but it’s something to look at I guess, classic CP flow View attachment 102422
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That’s some insanely cold air toward the end of the GFS run. Key word there being “insanely”.


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Myfrotho704_ said:
Um, this warmer trend ? View attachment 102420View attachment 102421
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Not that surprising tbh pac jet extension brought the mean low center into the GOA region, temporary western ridge gets beaten down in time as energy ejects and the whole construct breaks down and releases as the pacific jet retracts and the mean low center reestablishes in the aleutians which renews western ridging and you get the current post D12 super cold. Soooo at least a short period of zonal across Noam is likely where the pv will be titled east or tugged poleward with not much connection to it. Interestingly enough the 0z eps was still building western heights at 360 hr...
 
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SD said:
Not that surprising tbh pac jet extension brought the mean low center into the GOA region, temporary western ridge gets beaten down in time as energy ejects and the whole construct breaks down and releases in time as and pacific jet retracts and the mean low center reestablishes in the aleutians which renews western ridging and you get the current post D12 super cold. Soooo at least a short period of zonal across Noam is likely and the pv will be titled east with not much connection to it.
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Yep, I’m literally not even trying to be a heat miser or whatever I’m getting the rep of, I’m just showing a trend I don’t like, I legitimately want it to snow so bad and it’s frustrating seeing things delay in every possible way, like this week/early next week looked so much better back then until the pacific jet went to Far East and extended to Far East which is still good for cold, but sucks for snow, and now this issue, here’s to hoping that really cold post hour 300 makes it here because that signal is extremely impressive.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, I’m literally not even trying to be a heat miser or whatever I’m getting the rep of, I’m just showing a trend I don’t like, I legitimately want it to snow so bad and it’s frustrating seeing things delay in every possible way, like this week/early next week looked so much better back then until the pacific jet went to Far East and extended to Far East which is still good for cold, but sucks for snow, and now this issue, here’s to hoping that really cold post hour 300 makes it here because that signal is extremely impressive.
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Yeah I completely understand where you are coming from. As bad as its been here in VA you guys have really gotten the shaft down there the past couple years. I would be frustrated too.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, I’m literally not even trying to be a heat miser or whatever I’m getting the rep of, I’m just showing a trend I don’t like, I legitimately want it to snow so bad and it’s frustrating seeing things delay in every possible way, like this week/early next week looked so much better back then until the pacific jet went to Far East and extended to Far East which is still good for cold, but sucks for snow, and now this issue, here’s to hoping that really cold post hour 300 makes it here because that signal is extremely impressive.
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Remember the old saying the models rush pattern changes? It's probably some of what we are seeing here but the eps hinted at some of what we are seeing. If you go back to old runs you can see the models were too fast with the Pacific jet retraction and continue to be. As long as the retraction is still going to take place not much reason for concern. Things are delayed, sure, but let's see if they are truly denied
 
I think the take-away ought to be that we have a likelier than normal chance for a generally colder pattern on tap over the coming weeks. There will be brief cold shots (maybe 1-3 days) followed by brief warm-ups. A more sustainable cold pattern (1-2 weeks) may be in the offing. The models are hinting at this. We'll all feel better when that period moves to within 7 days of verification.

That said, anytime in mid-January that you have even 1-3 day cold shots, you have the opportunity for wintry weather. I think we all suspect, and rightly so, that the PV is probably not going to be sitting over PA in 384 hours. The models almost always overdo the magnitude of cold air intrusions within regimes like they're showing beyond hour 300. But those kinds of patterns, if they come to fruition, are frequently below normal.

The bottom line is, even up and down cold periods can provide opportunities for snow. A more sustained cold period seems likely later this month, based on what the models are showing...maybe not bitterly cold, but cold enough. It's a million times better than what they were showing for days on end in December with a raging SE ridge. You certainly can't snow that way.
 
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