Any further evidence, GaWx, that warm Decembers produced cold Februarys during La Nina’s? Traditionally, December is the colder month in LaNinas, so wondered if the opposite condition also produced the non traditional February cold.
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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Well then, that would certainly be something.
From the 80s to it legitimately being cold in less than two weeks.
YetAnotherRDUGuy
Member
I’ll take the vodka cold pattern with no verbatim threats over a meh pattern with a big dog threat 10+ days away. Got plenty of time for the details to sort themselves out.
I wouldn’t go that far but rather would just say there are winters like 1933-4, 1971-2, and 1984-5 with similarly strengthed La Niña that had mild Decembers and produced cold Febs (1934 and 1972) or slightly BN Febs (1985) that tell me to not bet the farm on a mild Feb. Also, fwiw, recent CFS runs have been hinting that Feb will not be mild.
At least webb wins, but that’s a nice PNA ridge going up 
Pattern already has changedI’m tired of chasing 10 day pattern changes!
griteater
Member
Broadly from a colder pattern standpoint, almost everything about that GFS run was fantastic. GEFS and GEPS as well. Westerly momentum continues to push off E Asia, helping to maintain the Aleutian Low (seen on sfc charts), and prevent it from retreating back to the west Pacific. The GFS run had multiple eastward moving ridges running toward the W Coast and the big wave break north of AK leading to the big cold plunge. Remember, we don't get into a potential pattern of C and E U.S. troughing until Jan 17-18. That's a long ways off and plenty can go wrong, but potential is there. Now to get consistency on all modeling and keep it there as time goes by
Further to this, although the Decembers weren’t mild (they were NN to a little BN), the weak La Niña winters of 1894-5 and 1898-9 both had an historically cold and snowy February.
TPV over Hudson Bay about to dump south now that’s interesting 
Peaking Twitter folks interests .. vodka cold on the rise .. although we talk about how we don’t want too much cold these type of events always could proceed a CAD event when a storm tries to move them out this type of cold air is heavy and very hard to move all at once 
Bring on the cold!
Mr. Golf
Member
I think the main way to eliminate or lessen the chances of returning to warm is not to get the mjo into phases 4-6. I mean sustained warm.
The only concern here is the ridge axis is over the GOA on both ensembles and as @SD hinted earlier, that could dump cold to similar areas as last feb, but that’s a nice signal, I really like that look at the end of the euro tho, active southern stream and a TPV headed towards the GLs
Honestly I’ll take my chances with that sort of evolution again I mean we were on the cusp of a really good winter event but the SER was so strong then .. I haven’t seen many signals pointing towards that type of SER again .. I wouldn’t even mind a little bit of resistance cause that would just bring a volatile storm I feel like it was a rarity to have everything stay out west like that and two years in a row .. that would be rawly unfair to us from Mother Nature .. where was our MJO last February along with new updates on where the models see the MJO going now?
I haven’t seen any tele updates for today for MJO, PNA, AO, and NAO.
That’s yesterday. No updates today yet.
Even though this is yesterdays as GA said this still makes me think we can’t escape this pattern without at LEAST one more winter event .. speaking for NC at least going back and forth between 7/8 (the most favorable for NC winter storms for these months) is certainly an ideal place to be better that than looping in 5/6
NoSnowATL
Member
Euro is on his own island. ---- island.
