The control is a perfect example of what we want, the EPS is meh but looks to be heading in a better direction, really like the return of the Aleutian low 
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Pattern Januworry
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We have a general theme today tho 
We’re allowed 1 toss of a 12z euro full run .. cashing in
Maybe we don’t toss I see a general trend to rising heights in the PNA region .. this is key and we will hope this continues on subsequent runs
My biggest fear is there’s to much interaction between the Aleutian low and TPV and it just dumps a trough in the NE US and quickly backs off after
You can see a good bit of what is expected in a nina here. Extend the jet enough so that you cut off the existing ridge, feed cold into Noam, get a consolidated vortex near Hudson Bay and a ridge along the WC maybe as far east as the rockies. In time the jet will start to relax and retract and we will see this pattern begin its retrogression and toward more of the SER dominate late winter pattern. The big question will be how long does it stay favorable? My guess would be we have until around 2/1 if we are lucky before it's backing out. Big wildcard would be trying to wave break a -nao as things move west
Brent
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?
Avalanche
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12Z EPS is warmer on some days in the SE vs 0Z but is actually colder 1/6-7 and on 1/11. I wouldn’t read too much into late week 2 as that’s the part that is the least credible of the 2 weeks since it jumps around the most even if this run doesn’t look great then.
Edit: hoping for El Niño next winter.
Edit: hoping for El Niño next winter.
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Probably and if we go the route of the eps we may not have much time to cash in or anything to cash in on. The lack of polar blocking and the retraction of the pv poleward is concerning. This is incredibly meh we probably get an intense cold shot or 2 from this look and avg near to bn but it doesn't exactly make me jump around in excitement
Eps had 2 opportunities to link up western ridging to the ridge near ak and drop the hammer but didn't. Something to watch I guess.
12 vs 18z NAM
StormWatch
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18z GFS is better for the upcoming possible snow event. The trough is digging deeper, but it still needs more tilt for a significant widespread winter storm.
LovingGulfLows
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18z GFS is better for the upcoming possible snow event. The trough is digging deeper, but it still needs more tilt for a significant widespread winter storm.
Yeah, the most important thing we want to see is simply more consoldiation of energy around the base of the trough axis and more neutral/possible neg tilt. Better for N. GA/AL than 12z for sure.
Also need that N/S energy around the GLs slightly farther ahead of our energy for a better feed/injection of cold air, anything helps
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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Brent
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modernweeniemodernweeniemodernweenie
Given the strength of
the cold front, and likelihood that a strong jet stream aloft will
be running ahead of the main trough axis, it seems likely that
a swath of light snow could run across parts of eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas Saturday evening.
Given the strength of
the cold front, and likelihood that a strong jet stream aloft will
be running ahead of the main trough axis, it seems likely that
a swath of light snow could run across parts of eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas Saturday evening.
Looks good for the Avery county ski resorts